RC EMS One Summer preview (2/2)

Sunday will be the final day of competition at RC EMS One Summer 2013 finals where fnatic, VeryGames, NiP and Virtus.pro will battle it out for the $12,000 first place prize.

Opening day saw fnatic upset LDLC.com despite some of their peripherals being lost en route to Cologne. Andreas "Xyp9x" Højsleth even proclaimed that if they make the final, they will take down NiP.

VeryGames struggled a little in their match versus Copenhagen Wolves as they fell short on de_nuke_se, but as Nathan "NBK" Schmitt said on ESL TV, all that matters if they advanced to the semis.

NiP were powered by Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund's all-time great performance on de_dust2_se, and although Western Wolves got to double digits on the second map, they were never quite in the game.

Finally in the fourth match of the day, the now international squad of Virtus.pro featuring three different nationalities were able to overcome the Poles of ESC Gaming 2-0 to clinch a spot in the final four.

Who will prevail at the ESL TV studios? 

Sunday, 15:00 : fnatic vs. VeryGames (S1)

Today's results have made this series look a whole lot more interesting than you would have expected based on results leading up to this weekend's tournament. fnatic didn't look strong at DreamHack and you would expect losing their peripherals to have hurt their chances in Cologne. VeryGames on the other hand skipped over DreamHack and were largely regarded as having improved due to changing their playing style and practicing for a while.

While the French managed to win their quarter-final, it took much more effort from them than expected. Copenhagen Wolves were practically a mixteam with two last minute stand-ins, but put up a good fight. fnatic meanwhile scored an easy 2-0 win over LDLC, who were favored by quite a lot in their matchup due to clearly stronger results in the past few months, including a 3-4th place finish at DreamHack Summer. It was an eye opening result for fnatic, who really haven't had success on LAN since Mad Catz Birmingham.

So far in Cologne fnatic has actually impressed me more than VeryGames, but here's the problem: I think VeryGames played below their usual level, and fnatic surpassed their long-term level of play. If both keep that up for tomorrow, it's entirely possible Patrik "cArn" Sättermon's troops will celebrate a second top two finish tomorrow evening, but I wouldn't put my money on that, as it seems more likely both teams' play will level out tomorrow.

If the Danes can have strong terrorist sides where they abuse VeryGames' money situation and basically gain big leads by winning the right rounds at the right times, I could see them repeating their success of the Spring 2013 finals, where they managed a second place. However, as I suggested in the previous paragraph, I don't think it will happen. I think VeryGames have a higher gear than fnatic, and they should be able to walk away from this match. It could go either way, but my money's on VeryGames.

Prediction: VeryGames 2-0

Xyp9x must have another good match for fnatic to have a chance 

Sunday, after S1: NiP vs. Virtus.pro (S2)

NiP looked very strong today as I expected, and had no trouble whatsoever defeating Western Wolves. It needs to be said that Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund had one of the best games of his CS:GO career though, so he really would have needed to get no help whatsoever for the game to have been close. The Swedes didn't play de_inferno_se so it's impossible to know if they've improved on the map, but they looked to be in tip top shape on both de_dust2_se and de_nuke_se.

You could say all the same things for Virtus.pro. They lost eighteen rounds combined in two maps, never looked to be in danger, played well overall and had their main fraggers Mihail "Dosia" Stolyarov and Ladislav "GuardiaN" Kovács showcase solid play on an individual level. The latter wasn't overly confident about his team's chances in the post-game ESL TV interview, but it's hard to tell whether you should interpret that as modesty or lack of belief in their play.

Last time these two met was obviously at DreamHack and Virtus.pro found themselves completely outmatched that time, barely putting up a fight versus a NiP team that seemed to have been struggling throughout the tournament. Now they've had a little more time to prepare, and Kovács can only get more and more accustomed to speaking and listening to Russian as time goes by, just like their team play and strategies will only start clicking better once they have things figured out.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Virtus.pro managed to win a map like de_inferno_se or de_cache, or potentially even de_dust2_se, but I do believe de_train_se and de_nuke_se heavily favor the Swedes. I doubt NiP will play either one of the former maps because as Robin "Fifflaren" Johansson said on ESL TV, they focus on themselves, not their opposition. They've looked unbeatable so far this tournament, and there is no reason to think they would falter tomorrow. If Stolyarov & co play a perfect game NiP are within an arm's reach, but only if their stars don't play like Alesund did today.

Prediction: NiP 2-0

If GeT_RiGhT plays like he did today, the tourney may as well be over

Sunday, 20:00 : Grand final

For the sake of this preview I will simply assume NiP will make the grand final, and focus on the possibility of yet another classic NiP versus VeryGames showdown tomorrow at 20:00 . I don't think fnatic can realistically put up a fight versus NiP, regardless of Højsleth's promise during the pre-tournament team interview. If they make it that far, as they did last season, I believe they will be both spent and happy with their performance, and I don't see them being able to reasonably compete. If Virtus.pro made the grand final it'd open up the series completely, but if that's the case I was so far off the prediction wouldn't matter anyways.

First of all, and I do feel like a broken record even mentioning this at this point, NiP still possess a massive psychological advantage over the team of Kevín "Ex6TenZ" Droolans, not the least on the leader himself. Last season, led by star AWPer Kenny "kennyS" Schrub's de_dust2_se performance, VeryGames were on the verge of once again taking a map from NiP, but poor mid round decisions wound up costing them another chance at shattering the glass ceiling that so much restricts their ability as a team.

More recently the Frenchmen lost an overtime game against NiP on de_train_se in ESEA Invite, and there really is little reason to think this match would be any different. Only, if VeryGames think so themselves and let it ease their mental preparation to this game, it might actually make all the difference. We've seen the French have enough skill to compete, and they've been brilliant at times, but usually when they finally get close to the finish line, a bad call or two stop them from closing out the game. If they're able take some of the pressure off of themselves, they could at least get closer.

I don't think VeryGames have looked strong enough so far to compete with NiP, but tomorrow is a new day and you never know. I certainly hope the grand final will be a close encounter and not a repeat of last season's anti-climatic final, when NiP ran over fnatic in a two map series. I think NiP are still far too strong to lose a series, but if VG have some aces up in their sleeves and truly are open to playing with more freedom for their star fraggers, it could certainly get interesting. One can only hope.

Prediction: NiP 2-0

Has Ex6TenZ finally figured NiP out? 

Who do you think will prevail tomorrow? Can NiP continue winning after showing some vulnerability in Jönköping? Leave a comment below and let us know what you think.