NiP versus Virtus.pro preview

The only team capable of taking down NiP in a best-of-three series, Virtus.pro, once again faces off against the world's number one team tomorrow. Here's our preview for the match.

NiP are without a doubt still favorites to win this match, but if Virtus.pro were to take another series from the Swedes who have seen a drop in their level of play recently, it could swing around in time for the grand final.

The two giants have met on LAN seven times, with their series running over thirteen maps in total. Virtus' record with Dauren "AdreN" Kystaubayev on the team is 2-3 (4-4 in maps), and tied at one (2-3 in maps) after Ladislav "GuardiaN" Kovács' recruitment.

Date	Score	Winner	Map	Event
Jun 30	16-14	Virtus.pro	de_nuke_se	RC EMS One Summer
	16-11	Virtus.pro	de_dust2_se	RC EMS One Summer
	16-11	NiP	de_mirage_ce	RC EMS One Summer
Jun 17	16-9	NiP	de_dust2_se	DreamHack Summer
	16-6	NiP	de_mirage_ce	DreamHack Summer
Apr 7	16-14	Virtus.pro	de_dust2_se	SLTV StarSeries V finals
	19-15	Virtus.pro	de_inferno_se	SLTV StarSeries V finals
Apr 5	16-10	Virtus.pro	de_nuke_se	SLTV StarSeries V finals
	16-14	Virtus.pro	de_mirage_go	SLTV StarSeries V finals
Mar 30	16-11	NiP	de_nuke_se	Copenhagen Games
	16-13	NiP	de_dust2_se	Copenhagen Games
Mar 23	16-10	NiP	de_dust2_se	TECHLABS Cup
Mar 23	16-12	NiP	de_inferno_se	TECHLABS Cup

* Matches without a date are part of a best-of-three, not a separate match

NiP leads the head-to-head LAN series with a map record of 7-6, or 4-3 in terms of actual matches. The teams have never played de_train_se, a map Virtus.pro has decided to ignore altogether since early February.

Neither team is undefeated on any map of the four they've constantly battled on, with Virtus holding a slight 2-1 edge on de_nuke_se, while NiP is in the lead on de_dust2_se 3-2 and on de_mirage_ce 2-1, with de_inferno tied at one.

Maps don't really offer us too much insight in this series, aside from the fact de_train_se won't be played tomorrow either, as both teams have proven to be capable of winning on all maps.

Different maps don't seem to phase ANGE1 

Pistol rounds have been fairly even in this series, as NiP is currently in the lead at 14-12. In the thirteen previous encounters, twelve times has the team who won the opening pistol round gone on to win the map. Team who won both pistols has never lost a map in this series.

This series clearly has an above average level of play, as demonstrated by both a higher than average HS% of 49.5% and the fact neither team has ever lost the second round after winning a pistol round in their head-to-head matches.

Here are combined statistics from all the thirteen maps these two teams have played against each other on LAN, spanning both Virtus.pro rosters that have existed during this spring:

The widely considered star players in the series, Mihail "Dosia" Stolyarov and Kovács from Virtus.pro, and Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg and Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund from NiP have been topping the charts on LAN.

Adam "friberg" Friberg has mightily struggled with entry fragging in this series, likely the reason for his sizable drop in statistics in comparison to his recent average, which had him above captain Richard "Xizt" Landström in rating.

Kirill "ANGE1" Karasiow sees by far the most action (entry duels) early on in the rounds at 37%, almost double that of an average player. The Ukrainians wins roughly 40,6% of his duels though, while second most active entry dueler Friberg (at 24,7%) wins 39,8%.

Both Friberg and Karasiow normally win 49% of their entry duels, so both struggle in this series. However, even bigger drop comes from Landström, who only wins 47,8% of his entries versus Virtus.pro, versus his impressive 2013 LAN average of 60%.

Xizt's entry frag numbers have plummeted in this series 

Most successful round opener is Kovács with a successrate of 61,9%, followed by Lindberg at 61%. On average Virtus.pro loses 78,6% of the rounds they die first, while the number is slightly lower at 73,5% for NiP.

Mostly costly players to die first are the Stolyarov brothers (Dosia's first death means a round loss 84% of the time, Fox's 86,9%) and Kovács (at 87,5%) for Virtus.pro, so it makes a big difference who dies first as well, not just which team loses a player.

For NiP the players whose entry death most often means a round loss are Friberg at 82,1%, and Robin "Fifflaren" Johansson at 77,4%. Everyone else on both teams is below their team's respective averages.

AWPing in the series has become a lot more popular since Kovács joined the party, as he's brought the number of AWP kills to 10,3% from the previous 6,1%. Kovács accounts for 6,6% of the kills with the big green.

Statistics aside, NiP must still be considered slight favorites to win the series. Until Virtus.pro finally dethrones them, which could happen this weekend, you have to give the overall stronger team the edge.

It's somewhat worrysome Virtus.pro weren't able to push VeryGames aside last weekend in Cologne after taking down NiP, but this time they will have all the time in the world to re-charge for new matches due to SLTV's loose schedule.

Virtus.pro can definitely benefit from the local crowd that always sticks to their home-team instead of rooting for the bigger names that visit Kiev's CyberSports ARENA.

The Russians are a very dangerous team and have likely only integrated Kovács better in the team, as he flew directly to Kiev from Cologne to spend more time with the team, which is likely going to help with his communication.

I would have considered NiP a sizable favorite if not for the struggles against Natus Vincere. They had to have been super motivated coming in here, and probably still have a chip on their shoulders.

"I think the series will be decided by 1vX, 2vX and 3vX clutch situations. Our matches have been very close, so the winner will be decided by those rounds", said Karasiow, Virtus.pro's in-game leader

On the other hand, all the pressure is on NiP. They know they can't afford another loss within a week, and a loss to Virtus.pro here would definitely hurt their stock, quite a lot in my opinion.

Virtus.pro don't have that much to lose; most would expect NiP to come back with revenge and sweep them for another title. The CIS-squad are at home where they are comfy, and have everything to gain.

I expect NiP to pull through, simply because their highest gear is still above everyone else. If Virtus.pro can once again stop NiP, we might have to start worrying for the Swedes as the clear #1 team in the world sooner than we thought.

NiP versus Virtus.pro is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 tomorrow at SLTV StarSeries VI finals in Kiev, Ukraine. The loser will then play against Natus Vincere at 18:00 in the consolidation final.

Grand final, which could see a repeat of this match, will begin on Sunday at 16:00 . Who do you think will win? Leave a comment below and let us know what you think!

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