EnVyUs vs. Cloud9 statistical preview

The two quarter-finalists - or group A elimination round teams - have played against each other a number of times in the past, but actually only on six maps with these rosters.

In the six matches the BoysInBlue hold a 4-2 record, having won two best-of-three series at different Gfinity events, and lost the group stage opener at ESL ESEA Pro League Season 1 Finals.

In the game on de_train last week EnVy had a sizeable lead before collapsing like a house of cards as Tyler "⁠Skadoodle⁠" Latham went to town, eventually losing in overtime.

Today the game wasn't as dramatic - though the French started halves up 6-0, and 5-0, respectively - but Cloud9 managed to escape with a 16-13 win, with another comeback.

Date	Team	Score	Team	Map	Event
Jul 2	EnVyUs	13-16	Cloud9	de_cache	ESL ESEA Finals
Jun 26	EnVyUs	16-12	Cloud9	de_cache	Gfinity Summer I
Jun 26	EnVyUs	16-2	Cloud9	de_inferno	Gfinity Summer I
Jun 26	EnVyUs	16-19	Cloud9	de_train	Gfinity Summer I
May 16	EnVyUs	16-10	Cloud9	de_dust2	Gfinity Spring II
May 16	EnVyUs	16-5	Cloud9	de_cache	Gfinity Spring II
Average	EnVyUs	15.5-9.2	Cloud9

These two rosters have faced each other on six maps

Though EnVy has a 15.5 to 9.2 advantage in average score over the six maps, that shrinks a lot - to 15.3 over 12.0 - if we discard the two blowouts. Still, a clear edge.

Looking at maps, the teams are tied tied 1-1 on de_cache in the last week - with the first match likely not very relevant - and it seems all but guaranteed to be featured tomorrow.

In the last two series we have veto data for, EnVy have removed de_overpass each time, with Cloud9 opting to get rid of de_cobblestone twice - vetoes we should expect tomorrow as well.

Wins (vetoes)	EnVyUs	Cloud9
de_cache	2 (-)	1 (-)
de_cobblestone	- (-)	- (2)
de_dust2	1 (1)	- (1)
de_inferno	1 (-)	- (1)
de_mirage	- (1)	- (1)
de_overpass	- (2)	- (-)
de_train	- (1)	1 (-)
Total	4	2

Both teams adjusted after losses, vetoing different maps

For their sake I hope Sean "⁠seang@res⁠" Gares will remove de_inferno tomorrow, and EnVy should then get rid of de_mirage, giving us a series on de_cache, de_dust2, and de_train.

Out of those maps Nathan "⁠NBK-⁠" Schmitt's team is clearly favored on de_dust2, with the other two toss-ups. Not an ideal situation for Cloud9, who had to overcome large deficits to gain their earlier wins, but not hopeless, either.

Let's then take a look at individual player performances across the six map sample size featuring these two lineups' head-to-head matches, which were listed above.

Player statistics in all of their six maps

With EnVy having won more maps - including 16-2 and 16-5 wins, leading to a fairly notable 15.5-9.2 average score advantage - obviously the statistics also favor the French.

Vincent "⁠Happy⁠" Schopenhauer has been the best player in the series, followed by NBK-, and then Cloud9's two best players, Skadoodle and Mike "⁠shroud⁠" Grzesiek.

Cloud9's two weakest players have been complete non-factors so far, but Ryan "⁠freakazoid⁠" Abadir was better today, and seang@res's calls made the difference.

Let's then move onto the four maps EnVyUs won, in order to see who contributed the most in their wins - in the maps that actually mattered - and who failed to perform on Cloud9.

Player statistics in the four maps EnVyUs won

As you can see, EnVyUs's players kept the same hierarchy - with similar differentials as well - with everyone's ratings simply being boosted by the fact they were winning more rounds.

On the other hand, shroud was the only player on Cloud9 whose rating resembled average - infact, it was better somehow - while the rest all struggled mightily.

In Cloud9's wins - which there were only two, leading to a questionably small sample size - Skadoodle was an absolute monster, with Jordan "⁠n0thing⁠" Gilbert gaining the number two spot.

Player statistics in the two maps Cloud9 won

Somehow shroud was actually less of a factor in their wins, suggesting he hasn't played that large of a role there, instead getting frags not translating to round wins in losses.

On the other hand, three of EnVy's players had notably worse ratings, with Happy no longer being the team's leading scorer in their losses the most important trend.

To derive more information out of how these ten players performed in their respective teams' wins versus losses, we have put together a table below listing ratings in both, as well as the differentials.

Player	Wins	Losses	Differential
Tyler "⁠Skadoodle⁠" Latham	1.39	0.87	+0.52
Vincent "⁠Happy⁠" Schopenhauer	1.47	0.98	+0.49
Ryan "⁠freakazoid⁠" Abadir	0.72	0.43	+0.29
Jordan "⁠n0thing⁠" Gilbert	1.09	0.81	+0.28
Nathan "⁠NBK-⁠" Schmitt	1.29	1.06	+0.23
Richard "⁠shox⁠" Papillon	1.14	0.91	+0.23
Edouard "⁠SmithZz⁠" Dubourdeaux	1.12	0.92	+0.20
Sean "⁠seang@res⁠" Gares	0.76	0.58	+0.18
Fabien "⁠kioShiMa⁠" Fiey	1.02	0.92	+0.10
Mike "⁠shroud⁠" Grzesiek	1.02	1.11	-0.09
Average	1.39	0.87	+0.24

Differentials in HLTV.org rating between wins and losses

A quick glance shows astronomical jumps in the ratings of Skadoodle and Happy - arguably the most important players in each team, and in the entire series.

shroud has - as noted before - been mostly a non-factor, having been better in losses than wins, and kioShiMa's effect in wins has also been fairly small at +0.10.

Other players's rating differential is roughly the mean between wins and losses - which is natural considering you tend to win a lot more rounds when you win, leading to easier kills.

In today's game the key was actually Cloud9's preparation. Most of the credit goes to in-game leader seang@res, who read EnVyUs like an open book, seemingly knowing all calls in advance.

Assuming Cloud9 prepared for other maps as well, they'll keep their edge in that department. However, they also got a strong performance out of n0thing today. 

EnVy remain favorites tomorrow - the best-of-three format adding to their advantage - and it would be an upset if Cloud9 won. However, it is entirely possible, as seen today.

The French have now lost five out of seven first maps of the day in three recent events, and Cloud9 likely must win the first opener again tomorrow to overcome nV.

For EnVy a loss would mean not making semi-finals for only the second time in the team's history. For Cloud9, it would be their first. One hopes not to lose, another hopes to win.

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