DreamHack MSI BEAT IT preview

Who do you think will come out on top in the $30,000 MSI BEAT IT tournament at DreamHack Winter this week? HLTV.org's Tomi "lurppis" Kovanen shares his insight in this article.

With only two more big events left in the calendar for 2011, every top team wants to end the year on a positive note and due to the likes of Na´Vi, mousesports and fnatic not attending World Cyber Games, it is the last chance for some of them to do so.

Teams and group stage

SK Gaming
The Swedes are coming into this event having won their two last events, ESWC and IEM6 Global Challenge New York. Besides their disappointing campaign at SEC where they lost against eSahara in group stage and then went out against Na´Vi in the quarter finals, the only time they have not won a tournament since the addition of Marcus "Delpan" Larsson was at e-Stars Seoul where they lost the grand final versus AGAiN. They are the clear favorite to win the event and unless their impressive form has somehow dropped in the past few weeks, they will advance as the first seed and be standing on the podium once it's all said and done on Saturday.

AGAiN
Despite a disappointing final placing at MSI BEAT IT Russia this past weekend (surrounded by controversy of the possible ceh9 ghosting) NEO & co have been arguably the second best team in the world in the past six months and even managed to beat SK at e-Stars. Their recent form has been questioned due to losses against mouz at ESWC, DTS in ICSC 9 grand finals and against WinFakt and Na´Vi in Kiev, and one has to wonder if the team might be doubting themselves a little as well. They are still without an organization and possibly financing their trips themselves which I believe will add to their motivation, and I think we will see a much stronger AGAiN in Jönköping and I expect them to cruise into first place in their group with more ease than Swedish fans would expect.

Natus Vincere
Na´Vi has been losing too much against their fellow countrymen in the recent months but overall their form has still been good with second places at both SEC and ESWC. They had a disappointing loss against fnatic last weekend and I believe fans are currently underestimating them due to the controversy of ceh9 possibly ghosting in the match against AGAiN, but they would not have jumped into DreamHack at the last minute and into what became by far the hardest group if they didn't feel up to the task. Although cArn's troops managed to beat them last weekend, I think the Ukrainians are still the stronger team overall and will clinch the first place in group C over fnatic and Moscow Five.

mousesports
Ever since Fatih "gob b" Dayik returned from inactivity the German giant has been on the rise which has so far culminated in their third place finish at ESWC over Lions and AGAiN. Luckily for them, unless some major upsets happen they will 'only' have to beat Lions in the group stage and ESC Gaming in the quarter finals to score themselves another top four finish, but that's where it will get tricky as they will likely face one of the world's top three teams; SK, Na´Vi or AGAiN. I do not see them beating any of the above this time, but if they get to face a team like fnatic or Moscow Five instead, we could see them in the finals; I wouldn't hold my breath though.

fnatic
Since the addition of Michael "Friis" Jørgensen the team has been performing a lot better with a first place at IEM6 Global Challenge Guangzhou and last weekend's second place at MSI BEAT IT Russia under their belts, but they also failed to advance from the group stage at ESWC after a disappointing loss against Alternate and a tie with mousesports. While I do think they belong in next group of teams after the top three, I do think fnatic's organization willl see yet another disappointing finish at DreamHack with losses against Moscow Five and Na´Vi. Unfortunately for them, even finishing second wouldn't help much as they would very likely be up against fellow Swedes SK Gaming in the quarter finals, and we all know how one sided that matchup has been since f0rest and GeT_RiGhT swapped sides.

Anexis
Anexis hasn't been placing like they hope to despite some solid wins at each of their disappointing tournament runs since joining the organization; they have beaten fnatic in Guangzhou and Na´Vi at ESWC but fallen to surprise teams like eFuture, defs and USSR which has kept them from advancing to bracket play even once. This time won't be much easier as their main AWPer Nuggi won't be attending and they have brought in former mTw star trace as a stand-in. Unfortunately both SK and eSahara will be much more prepared and I believe will end the year on a similar note it all started for the Danes in Kiev ten months ago; disappointment.

Moscow Five
M5 got an ultimatum from their organization after the SEC incident with one of their players showing up drunk to play the event and so far delivered with a first place in Kiev last weekend. They apparently have to place top three in Jönköping to please their bosses, and unfortunately for the Russians I don't see it happening due to their route in the brackets. I do think they will beat fnatic in the group stage, but I don't see them beating Na`Vi who they have consistently dropped games against even after early leads. This will pair them up against SK Gaming in the quarter finals, and although the Swedes have said they do not like playing against M5, I think they will come out on top and knock ED1K's team out a bit earlier than they, and their organiation would hope for.

Lions
Lions came into ESWC with a lot of promise after beating the likes of fnatic and SK Gaming in the online qualifier but only managed to beat ESC Gaming before AGAiN and mousesports showed them the door for their 5-8th place finish. They are sharing a group with mousesports and two significantly weaker teams who won't pose much opposition to the team built around threat, but I also don't expect them to do much damage beyond that. I think mousesports are stronger as a team than they are and will be able to win their group which would pair Lions up with AGAiN for the quarter finals which is a match up I don't see the Swedes winning. If they were able to upset mouz in group stage they could finish fourth, but I would put my money on them repeating their 5-8th placing from Paris.

Electronic Sahara
The French have been hyped up a lot thanks to Mickael "mSx" Cassisi returning to activity after having a movie released that definitely woke up all the old mSx fans from the emuLate's glory days. They managed to upset SK Gaming at SEC without their new star player but I think SK will have learned from their mistakes which will force HaRts' team to compete with Anexis for a spot in the top eight. I do think the team in their honeymoon phase with SIXER and mSx will be able to best the Danes, but that won't be enough to make it past the first round of quarter finals where they will (if I'm right) face Na´Vi.

Playoffs

As we already know how the brackets will play out, I will do my best at guessing how the entire tournament will play out. Assuming the group stage finishes like I predicted, the single elimination best-of-three bracket will look like this:

SK Gaming	vs. Moscow Five
mousesports	vs. ESC Gaming
Natus Vincere	vs. Electronic Sahara
AGAiN	vs. Lions

A lot of people seem to overlook Moscow Five's wins on de_forge in Kiev as most teams have not practiced the map and will be able to remove it against them at DreamHack, effectively taking their 1-0 map advantage away from them. I don't think they still have what it takes to go up against SK Gaming in a best-of-three, although they can get a very close game out of it. mousesports is a clear favorite over moddii's ESC Gaming and will set up a re-match of the ESWC semi-final between the two. The Germans seem to match up well versus SK but I don't think they have what it takes to best them here so I expect SK Gaming to make finals.

In the lower part I see another semi-final from ESWC being re-played with Na`Vi advancing over Electronic Sahara, even though I do think it could get closer than people think as the Ukrainians used to have trouble with SIXER's team even last year as BURNING with losses at both ESWC and Arbalet Cup Dallas. Much like in the upper part of the bracket, AGAiN is a heavy favorite over Lions and will take the other quarter final with relative ease. The semi-final will not only be a re-match of both ESWC semi-final and the MSI BEAT IT Russia quarter-final, but also carry a lot of added tension thanks to the controvery of possible ghosting last weekend. Na´Vi seems to be in better shape overall though, and I think they will edge out the win in a very close series.

Despite mouz' surprise win over the the team led by kuben at ESWC, I think AGAiN is still the stronger team overall and will surprise their doubters by claiming yet another top three finish to pull them a little further away from the group behind the arguable top three in the world right now that they belong to.

I think the grand finals will be a repeat of ESWC with SK Gaming having a fairly close game against Natus Vincere but pulling away in the end to win yet another title for the team and pretty much cementing their status as the best CS team of 2011, although a win at WCG in two weeks could make it much more impressive.

Who do you think will advance from the groups? Will there be upsets or will the usual suspects end up on the podium? Leave a comment with your predictions on how the tournament will end up!