DreamHack Summer preview

After ranking the world's best teams a few weeks ago, HLTV.org's Tomi "lurppis" Kovanen previews the DreamHack Summer 2012 group stage where his top six will be competing.

Kovanen's recent team ranking which was mader rank teams based on their performance in 2012 so far with emphasis on their current form can be read here. If you're interested in how these teams might fare in the tournament, it offers tons of insight that did not fit in this article.

The groups were previously announced, but in case you have missed them, group A features SK Gaming, ESC Gaming and WinFakt. fnatic, Natus Vincere and Moscow Five have been put in group B. On top of that, one more team will qualify into each group from the on-site BYOC qualifier which will be played on Saturday.

A new preview will be posted once the group stage, which will see two teams advance from each group, has finished. Playoffs will be played in a single elimination best-of-three format.

SK Gaming (Delpan, f0rest, face, GeT_RiGhT, RobbaN)

SK Gaming struggled with Martin "trace" Heldt in their lineup and instantly started playing better when their former member Marcus "Delpan" Larsson joined. They were lacking aggressiveness in their previous lineup with the Dane and therefore had even more trouble as terrorists than usual. Since Larsson came back the Swedes have scored wins at Swedish Championship qualifier and the 3rd Intel Core Challenge by Inferno Online, beating fnatic twice and ESC once in best-of-three series.

According to my sources SK Gaming hasn't practice virtually at all since the Anexis match they lost in fnatic PLAY league almost two weeks ago. That coupled with their weak showing against eSrael might be an indicator that the Swedes are in trouble unless they can find their usual form on-site at DreamHack. Swedish Championship taking place earlier certainly helps SK who will get to play some warmup matches too instead of jumping directly in to the deep end of the pool which sees them face ESC Gaming and WinFakt in the group stage.

While rationally thinking it makes sense that WinFakt would beat SK Gaming who seem to be at an all time low preparation and possibly motivation wise, my gut tells me that Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg and Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund won't let that happen and will actually defeat the Swedes who forced them outside of the podium at IEM 6 WC. ESC Gaming seemed weak against SK a month ago at Inferno Online but have now been practicing more and can easily beat SK, but the Poles' form depends so much day to day it's hard to say what will happen, especially in a group stage. I can't imagine SK Gaming losing to any of the teams from the BYOC qualifier.

Has SK Gaming's motivation become an issue for this team? 

ESC Gaming (kuben, Loord, neo, pasha, TaZ)

After some disappointing results in the past months that saw the Poles finish outside of the top eight in Copenhagen, get knocked out easily by SK at Inferno Online and most recently lose a close quarter-finals series to eventual champions fnatic in FCL due to a ninja-like defuse, it's easy to say Wiktor "TaZ" Wojtas' team hasn't had the easiest last two months. They tend to show their best form at the major events as proven by their most recent championships at WCG and IEM 6 WC this year, with wins over SK Gaming in best-of-three series at both.

ESC Gaming on the other hand has been putting in hours practicing at home and are definitely looking to bounce back after the disappointing results of late. As I mentioned in my team ranking article, the great thing the Polish side has going for themselves is the fact they are quite literally in the driving seat as far as their fate is concerned - if they wish to prepare sufficiently and put their problems aside, they are so good that they know they will finish on the podium. As Filip "NEO" Kubski pointed out in our Pre-3rd Intel Core Challenge interviews, they are also having some motivational issues due to CS 1.6 declining, but it doesn't seem like they've let it affect their preparation too much.

Outside of a group stage I would put my money on ESC to edge out SK and WinFakt any day of the week in the current scenario but right now it's hard to tell without having too much information on any of the three teams. I think there will be a three way tie of some sorts, but I'm not sure if it will be due to WinFakt upsetting SK or ESC, which poses a problem. However, if the BYOC team beats WinFakt, the top dogs from Poland and Sweden will go through. I expect ESC to fight their way through the group stage and return to the podium in the end.

kuben's squad fell short against SK at their last event 

 WinFakt (FYRR73, kHRYSTAL, niko, threat, zneel)

WinFakt saw a big jump in their level of play that has so far been identical to the rise in Emil "FYRR73" Karlsson's individual play. WinFakt's current form is hard to gauge due to the team skipping the 3rd Intel Core Challenge which was the most recent LAN event for the teams in attendance. They also didn't compete at the same Swedish Championship qualifier with SK and fnatic, opting to qualify months ago against weaker opposition instead. What makes this even trickier is the fact they had some surprisingly weak online results lately, although they seem to go hand in hand with Karlsson's play.

I don't think it's realistic to expect other players on WinFakt to step up enough to make up for that fragging should their star player of the past six months not be able to deliver, which is why it's so important for him to be in top form if WinFakt wants to continue playing the same way that saw them defeat SK Gaming featuring Heldt at the last two LAN events. Preparation wise I don't know too much about them but Björn "threat" Pers has usually made sure his team doesn't go to tournaments unprepared because their play depends on good team work and strategies so I don't expect that to have changed now.

WinFakt is an underdog against both SK and ESC but not by much which leads me to believe that unless they aren't in good shape at all, they will beat either team and force an awkward three way tie which will send one of these teams home. Further complicating things would be if Brasil Gaming was placed in the group with them because I think they can beat WinFakt, but not the other two teams. Overall I don't think WinFakt will advance because of those reasons and will get knocked out in the group stage.

Can WinFakt continue to surprise people under their new name? 

 fnatic (Friis, Gux, karrigan, moddii, Xizt)

fnatic's performance has rocketed after Patrik "cArn" Sättermon's retirement as the black and orange colors have made the finals of every tournament they have attended since then, most notably winning Copenhagen Games as their first event. This time they will be much more studied as a team and I think that may cause a problem for the Swedes especially against Na`Vi who will surely find the holes in their defense and attack them. I'm curious to see how Richard "Xizt" Landström will adjust mid-match should these problems occur.

I think fnatic is legitimately better than Moscow Five although it's hard to judge due to the latter's absence in tournaments recently. The reason being that fnatic has a high individual skill level; even their in-game leader was considered a fragger in their team just three months ago. M5 has always struggled against SK who also have more skill than them, and that should be enough cushion for fnatic to sore a win against the Russians and whoever makes it to their group from the BYOC qualifier.

The matchup against the best team of 2010 will be interesting enough that I will probably have to wake up in the middle of the night to catch it myself. My gut says fnatic will get the win somehow, but when I think about it rationally I can't see Natus Vincere losing because they have been preparing a lot and you can tell from Yegor "markeloff" Markelov's interview that he is pumped up and ready to go all the way in Jönköping. Either way, I expect fnatic to advance out of the group stage.

fnatic will be hoping to avoid SK in the brackets and score another tourney victory 

 Natus Vincere (ceh9, Edward, markeloff, starix, Zeus)

Natus Vincere have so far been the most impressive and consistent team of 2012 and that is a fact looking at the tournament results so far this year. Their most recent results at K1 League were disappointing to fans but lack of rate settings in CS:Online and going out on a three way tie as opposed to simply losing against Chinese teams makes the defeat almost irrelevant and I wouldn't honestly even consider it when trying to gauge the team's current level. In fact, I think it only serves as motivation for them.

As I've previously mentioned on various occasions, I think their biggest problem is, as Markelof stated in his pre-DreamHack interview here on HLTV.org, themselves. If their management can keep them out of arguments during matches and they get out of their initial group which especially if combined with Brasil Gaming can potentially cause odd outcomes with three way ties, I think the Ukrainians are poised to finish within the top two for the fifth time in 2012 out of five tournaments.

They have practiced more than usual for DreamHack Summer and Markelov said he still has hunger and fire left in him in the interview so I fully expect the Ukrainians to make it to the grand final and I think they are the favorites heading into this tournament. There are obstacles standing in their way as usual, but for the past two and a half years no team has been as consistent at getting past them as Natus Vincere - expect that trend to continue at DreamHack Summer which is one of the very few tournaments they have yet to win.

markeloff said all they want to do is win, and that is what they just might 

 Moscow Five (Dosia, ED1K, Fox, hacker, ROMJkE)

The Russians of Moscow Five haven't attended a single international event since IEM 6 WC due to deciding to head over to India instead of Copenhagen Games. Since then their best fragger Mihail "Dosia" Stolyarov went on a vacation and forced the team to use former member Alexander "xek" Zobkov as a stand-in in their ultimately failed fnatic PLAY league campaign that saw the team beat the former WinFakt squad easily but fall short of playoffs in the end.

People have made a big deal out of their show match performances versus Na`Vi but due to some problems players supposedly had there and how little money is at stake for the Ukrainians especially, I don't think it's fair to judge either team based on those results, similar to Kingston Trilogy Tour where Na`Vi's hearts didn't seem to be fully in it due to a lack of competition and high prize purses.

It's hard to predict what kind of Moscow Five we will see in action in Jönköping but assuming they are back at grinding in practice, I think it's not a stretch to imagine them upsetting fnatic and possibly advancing from a three way tie. I don't see them taking down the Ukrainians and even a team such as Brasil Gaming from the BYOC qualifier can cause them trouble, but you certainly can't count the Russians out as they can advance on Sunday.

M5 are back in top level action after a lengthy hiatus 

 Brasil Gaming (bit, btt, FalleN, fnx, shemp)

Brasil Gaming features fan favorite Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo who proved at IEM 6 WC that although his team might not be up to par, he still has enough firepower individually to make matchups interesting and turn a lot of heads of viewers. The team has also gotten rid of Felippe "felippe" Martin which significantly increases their chances of not only making the main tournament of DreamHack via the BYOC qualifier but even upsetting some of the teams.

The team has been bootcamping for almost ten days at Inferno Online and it should be plenty of time for them to show up at an optimal level of play. Based on experience from doing the same with EG multiple times, the hardest part is consistency when you only get some days of proper practice, so the key for Brasil Gaming is to not let any easy games where they get a lead early on get away, and make the most of every opportunity they are presented in the tournament.

I think they have a very good chance of beating WinFakt or Moscow Five and I would say either match up can be close to a fifty-fifty, but SK Gaming and Natus Vincere both seem like tough games for them. On the other hand, ESC Gaming and fnatic are more doable so I do believe they will be a competitive team and can make it out of the group stage on a good day. I don't think they will advance, but they certainly can, and probably will at least cause an upset.

The Brazilians are looking to turn heads after a disappointing IEM 6 WC performance 

 Virtus.pro (evil, hooch, kucher, LeX, xaoc)

Virtus.pro should be on paper one of the top two teams attending the BYOC qualifier as long as the seeds are done correctly and they do not face Brasil Gaming on their way to a top two finish. Their results in the past months have been shaky as they've won Skopje CS Masters over lesser competition and had some mixed results online where they've lost against some mixteams in competitions and had close games against Anexis and ALTERNATE.

Overall I think the Russians are good enough to make it to the main tournament and maybe have a close game against one of the top teams, but I think they will most likely run out of steam before being able to close out a win and go home wondering what could have been. Generally speaking, the six invited teams are clearly above their level and I don't think they can climb that mountain just yet.

LeX and hooch have reunited once again after some time apart in different teams 

Who do you think will make it through the group stage and place in the fop four? Leave a comment below. Don't forget to play our Dreamteam game where you have a chance to win various prizes!

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