EMS One: NiP vs. Virtus.pro preview

Down to just NiP and Virtus.pro battling for EMS One championship, we take a look at both teams, their players and much more to figure out who is a favorite heading into the match.

Ninjas in Pyjamas and Virtus.pro have been by far the most dominant teams at EMS One Katowice so far, both having only lost one map and given up double digit rounds in one other battle.

Statistically top four players of the entire event come from these two teams, and top eleven includes six players; more than half the players competing for the $100,000 first place prize.

Naturally the best overall player has been NiP's Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund, ranked best CS:GO player in the world. He's been in stunning form, recording a 0.98 KPR and a 1.52 rating.

Notably Richard "Xizt" Landström has been playing above his usual level, a key component to NiP's success we mentioned in the preview. Robin "Fifflaren" Johansson has also been solid:

It's clear that NiP's large margins in their wins have inflated their statistics a little bit, but if you look at it the other way around, it's those statistics that have given them the comfortable Ws.

For NiP Alesund, Johansson and Landström are overperforming compared to their career averages, while Friberg and Lindberg are actually below their career ratings. NiP are, as a team, overperforming by 0.31 rating.

NiP has never lost a tournament when Alesund's rating has been at 1.33 or higher, which speaks of the importance of Alesund playing at the top of his game in NiP's skill reliant system.

So far NiP have looked by far the strongest of every team present in Katowice, with the exception of compLexity match's de_dust2, which they would have also won if not for a huge mistake in a four-on-one against Braxton "swag" Pierce.

NiP's matches:
16-5	vs. 3DMAX	de_dust2
16-7	vs. LDLC.com	de_inferno
12-16	vs. compLexity	de_dust2
16-2	vs. compLexity	de_nuke
16-11	vs. compLexity	de_train
16-6	vs. dignitas	de_inferno
16-5	vs. dignitas	de_nuke

The Swedes' only map loss has come on de_dust2, and they've played four maps so far in this tournament. It's clear NiP isn't very fond of de_mirage, and should be removing it in the grand final.

Their odds of winning are much better without de_mirage in the pool, especially considering it has perhaps looked like the strongest map for Virtus.pro so far; at least behind de_inferno.

For Virtus.pro the two strongest performers have been Jarosław "pasha" Jarząbkowski and Paweł "byali" Bieliński. The former has actually looked better than NiP's Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg, which equalizes the skill difference a little bit.

However, the big story for Virtus.pro, in my opinion, is the resurfacing of former world's best Counter-Strike player Filip "Neo" Kubski. He has played very well so far in Katowice, and won a ton of clutch rounds as well.

So far only Wiktor "TaZ" Wojtas has struggled for Virtus.pro, but even he has had good plays in the tournament, just like Adam "friberg" Friberg hasn't exactly had a terrible event despite being at the bottom of NiP's charts.

Though Virtus.pro's overall team rating is just 5.78 compared to NiP's 6.25, a fairly big difference, they have elevated their level of play by the very same 0.31 rating as team, a huge jump at exactly the right time.

What's more, four of five Virtus.pro players have performed above their career averages, with just Wojtas having a rougher time in Katowice. I expect him to break out in the grand final.

Let's take a look at Virtus.pro's track record then. They've played de_mirage and de_inferno three times each, with de_train the decider in last night's LGB semi-final to clinch a grand final spot.

Virtus.pro's matches:
19-16	vs. HellRaisers	de_mirage
16-7	vs. Titan	de_mirage
16-3	vs. LDLC.com	de_mirage
16-8	vs. LDLC.com	de_inferno
16-8	vs. LGB	de_inferno
17-19	vs. LGB	de_mirage
16-7	vs. LGB	de_train

Statistically de_dust2 is NiP's weakest map with a 59% winning percentage, which is also the only map of the five in the pool on which Alesund isn't NiP's best player, but Lindberg.

For Virtus.pro Jarząbkowski is the one who tops three of five maps, all but de_dust2 and de_train, and should be looked at as the star player whom NiP needs to stop to clinch the win.

I think NiP are too strong for Virtus.pro on de_nuke, and the Poles should not play it. I also believe Virtus.pro has NiP's number on de_mirage, so that will be the other map tossed away.

Down to de_train, de_inferno and de_dust2, assuming Virtus is smart enough to remove de_nuke, we have a real series in our hands. One that Virtus.pro realistically could win.

Can f0rest match the killer instinct of Neo and TaZ?

They must continue their ridiculous hot streak to do so, but it's not impossible. Both de_train and de_inferno seem like they could be very close battles, and de_dust2 is a question mark, but NiP's worst map.

Pistol round wise the strongest player for all of EMS One Katowice so far is Alesund, with Lindberg notably missing from the top five. Bieliński is fourth overall, and Virtus.pro's main pistol threat.

I still expect NiP to win, though it'd be an amazing story line if Virtus.pro did, so I am rooting for them. I think this series has a chance to be very competitive, and that's exactly what EMS One Katowice needs.

So far there haven't been many close matches and we've seen that sometimes getting great Counter-Strike requires more than a massive prize purse; some luck in how teams match up.

These two sides have met twice before, though not in 2014, with NiP prevailing 16-4 at DreamHack Winter and 16-11 in Fragbite Masters 2013, both on de_inferno, with Virtus under the flag of Universal Soldiers.

Can Virtus.pro finish off the ultimate storyline in Counter-Strike history? 

There is also a great deal of history with the Virtus trio of Kubski, Wojtas and Jarząbkowski, and NiP duo Lindberg and Alesund. Most notable is the WCG 2009 grand final, when Alesund broke into tears after a 0-2 loss.

If you expect the Swede to get heckled any less today with thousands of Polish fans gathered around the massive stage in Katowice, you're lying to yourself. The question is, can Alesund handle it better in 2014?

The one thing Virtus.pro really has on their side, and they have embraced seemingly, is the crowd. They have two of the biggest winners in Counter-Strike's history in Wojtas and Kubski, and all they're missing is a CS:GO major.

If the duo wins EMS One Katowice today, you can't argue against them being the absolute biggest winners in Counter-Strike's history. And the crowd is 110% on their side.

We've seen the rowdy Polish crowd on ESL TV's stream, and if you think it's been loud so far, it's about to get much worse for their opponents. What's more, Virtus strike me as a team who gain a lot more from said crowd than e.g. NiP.

It all comes down to this: Can Virtus.pro's last weeks of preparation, combined with a hot streak and the ridiculous Polish crowd top NiP's long history of consistency, and an incredible individual skill ceiling?

I certainly think so, but I wouldn't bet money on it. Though I think CS:GO rewards hot streaks more than consistency, and something to consider there is that Virtus.pro are a momentum team, with crowd behind them, while NiP are their exact opposite.

However, we've seen Alesund and Lindberg crumble in grand final before against the Poles, and it's happened with much less at stake and a much smaller crowd, not at all rooting for the Polish side.

If there were ever a cinderella story in CS, this would be it, and the tournament would end with Kubski winning a clutch round that would hammer his head to a CS:GO Mount Rushmore as well.