ESL ESEA day-one wrap-up

Who would have thought all of this would go down in Cologne today? Easy question - no one. There's not a single person in the world who could have predicted this black swan of a day.

Following Virtus.pro's easy win over Luminosity, few expected a major upset to take place - let alone three of them. Or the top two team in the world TSM being sent packing in 7-8th place.

In no particular order, let's take a closer look at some of the events of day one at ESL ESEA Pro League Season 1 Finals in Cologne, Germany.

First day of competition for this trophy, and $100,000, is behind us 

The Americas's awakening

After Luminosity got thrashed by the Poles, Cloud9 stepped in and took down EnVyUs - despite starting the halves down 0-6 and 0-5, respectively - and scored the first upset of the day. It wasn't expected, but it was the likeliest upset of the day, and Tyler "⁠Skadoodle⁠" Latham's team had played EnVy close last week. Plus, EnVy has struggled in their first games of the day. This one made sense on some level.

Then things got weird. As fnatic took the stage, they jumped on a quick 6-1 lead as counter-terrorists on de_mirage against CLG, a clearly - over the long haul, as we compare performances - inferior side, who had lost three games to the Black and Orange squad on that very same map. Fourth one would turn out different, as James "⁠hazed⁠" Cobb's performance led CLG to an unlikely 16-12 upset.

As if that weren't enough, Keyd Stars then went on to take down TSM on de_inferno, starting on the terrorist side. Heavy favorites finished 1-3 in the opening round, and what's more, the underdogs who prevailed were all from across the pond. Keyd from the South, and both Cloud9 and CLG mixtures of American and Canadian players.

With the Cloud9 core having struggled mightily since last year's ESL One Cologne where they upset Titan and dignitas, and took NiP to their limit, and iBUYPOWER getting banned in January for match fixing, it had seemingly been forever since North American fans had reason to celebrate, but today the flood gates opened with those wins.

Cloud9 may still - and in fact, are favored to do so, as shown in our statistical preview - drop out in the group stage, as they face EnVyUs tomorrow in a decisive best-of-three series - a much harder task than the best-of-one today. However, CLG are already through to the semi-finals, having defeated Keyd Stars 16-9 on de_cache with Stephen "⁠reltuC⁠" Cutler leading the second half effort.

CLG's win is the continent's most impressive result since Cloud9's ultimately meaningless one map victory over NiP in Aspen back in January. They're likely going to face EnVy on Saturday, and aren't likely to see the grand final - but this is great progress for the continent as a whole, and verifies the scene is moving to the right direction on a global scale.

fREAKAZOiD's Cloud9 were the first Americans to celebrate a win 

 

Star performances from the usual suspects, and more

It's doubtful any fan is surprised by the likes of Olof "⁠olofmeister⁠" Kajbjer - currently the world's best player, according to most experts - Vincent "⁠Happy⁠" Schopenhauer, or even Paweł "⁠byali⁠" Bieliński being at the top of the player statistics after one day of action. But despite finishing the day with two losses, the best player so far has been TSM's René "⁠cajunb⁠" Borg.

Other notable performances include Keyd Stars' star Fernando "⁠fer⁠" Alvarenga - who had the highest rating in the past three months of all ESL ESEA Finals participants coming into today - finishing the day with a 1.20 rating and nV's Richard "⁠shox⁠" Papillon winding up with an identical rating, though combined with a weaker K-D difference.

Perhaps more surprisingly we have Filip "⁠NEO⁠" Kubski towards the top with a rating of 1.25, and CLG being led by the play of reltuC, whose three high-impact rounds on the second half of the Keyd Stars game might have been the difference between a Brazilian comeback and an undefeated evening for his team.

The star in CLG's first game, hazed also finished with a rating clearly above his career average at 1.10, while Skadoodle, ever consistent, finished right around his usual 1.10 range while being the best fragger in his team's upset win over Happy's team earlier in the day.

Naturally with each team having played only two maps so far, the sample sizes are small, but as with victories in best-of-one games, it's hard to blame the players doing well within the set of rules and tournament format that is being used. These were today's best performers at the $250,000 Finals event.

hazed put in a strong performance versus fnatic 

TSM eliminated in last place

Consensus among the scene seemed to be that TSM would face fnatic in the grand final, with opinions split somewhere around the middle as to who would be favored in the best-of-five series. Well, safe to say it didn't go exactly as everyone expected, or even remotely close to that.

TSM won the opening pistol round in their match against Brazilian Keyd Stars, but lost to Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo's teams second round buy, and quickly found themselves trailing 1-6 on the significantly easier side of de_inferno. They came back to win seven, but it would not be enough this time.

A mistake by FalleN in a two-on-one allowed TSM to tie the game at twelve, after a comeback as terrorists, but they would not get any closer than that. The Brazilian side won four straight to clinch a 16-12 victory, sending Finn "⁠karrigan⁠" Andersen's Danes to the elimination match.

As fnatic had earlier fallen victim to the North American CLG squad on de_mirage, they wound up having to face TSM in a match that would determine who would continue in the tournament chasing the $100,000 first place check tomorrow, and who would have to bow out in last place.

The final match of the day wound up being everything you would hope for, unless that was a TSM win. The two juggernauts went the full 30 rounds with olofmeister putting up 33 kills, only to be outdone by the Danes' swingman, cajunb's 35 kills.

Each team won their terrorist pistol round, only to lose the second round. Granted fnatic won more force buys later on in the half, but TSM also had their share of unlikely round wins, including a masterful one-on-four by Andreas "⁠Xyp9x⁠" Højsleth, who danced around his opponents with perfect timing in the A site.

In the end, as it perhaps was expected, it came down to the very last round, where - almost fittingly - TSM's star player Nicolai "⁠device⁠" Reedtz, who struggled throughout the match and finished with just 17 kills, was unable to win a round where he was left alone, as fnatic kept their tournament live for another day.

TSM's run in Cologne ended much sooner than expected 

The curious case of best-of-one

With TSM having been bounced early and so many upsets having taken place, it is a good time to take a minute to think about the setup of best-of-one matches. There is a large outcry - for good reason - against them, including by olofmeister who seemed sorry for TSM, but they also perhaps aren't as bad as people make them out to be.

Playing for large sums of money in best-of-one can seem random. Obviously the odds of an underdog scoring an upset win in best-of-three format are significantly lower - it's likely none of today's upsets would have taken place then - but it's no excuse for a loss when only playing a single map. Single map games are no longer as random as they're made to look.

In the old days of limited force buying and pistol rounds all but guaranteeing early leads, it's easy to agree that best-of-ones depended too much upon those hit-or-miss of a rounds. But today the odds of winning a second round forcebuy must be around 1/3, and you can generally get by with cheaper equipment. Losing both pistols isn't a death sentence, as proven by Cloud9 today.

I am the first one to admit I am disappointed TSM won't face fnatic in the grand final, and I definitely agree majors - and for the record, any event with this much money - should be played in best-of-three from start to finish. Especially given how much time ESL has with the teams spending four days in Cologne. However, I still don't agree with blaming best-of-ones for the results.

More often than not, despite people claiming Counter-Strike is random and anyone can win a best-of-one, the better team wins. And when the underdog wins, they probably won because they were better in that specific match. In a sense, playing best-of-one puts more pressure for the top dogs to perform, and removes that safety cushion that otherwise surrounds their every move.

Again, I'd like to emphasize I want best-of-three group stages -- but there are plenty of fans who enjoy the possibility of upsets, and frankly, group stage games are far more interesting this way, even if at the expense of the playoffs. Much like the NFL playoffs for those familiar with the format, you cannot afford to miss any games. It makes for an exciting match.

It can be easy for players to check out mentally in a match when they face a large early deficit, when they know they have more maps to play. If you listened in on fnatic's voice communications today, you'd know their effort wasn't the same versus CLG and TSM. But is that the tournament format's, or fnatic's fault? I say the latter. Would they have won in a must-win game? I say yes.

So Fucking dissapointed, No clue why it ever would be bo1 in the first place. Gg @FNATIC , go win this shit now!

— René Borg (@TSMcajunb) July 2, 2015

What about tomorrow?

ESL ESEA Pro League Season 1 Finals is spread over four days - as outlined in our viewer's guide - which means tomorrow will only see two matches played. Those are the elimination games - played using a best-of-three format, as opposed to today's best-of-one - in each group, set to determine the two teams joining Virtus.pro and CLG in the semi-finals on Saturday.

First match of the day will not be until 16:00 , when Cloud9 is set to lock horns with EnVyUs in a rematch of the day's first upset. Second, fnatic will attempt to clinch a semi-finals spot in a series against Brazilian Keyd Stars - whom they dropped de_mirage against at ClutchCon, only to win 32-5 combined on the two other maps - who face a gargantuan task.

The winner of Cloud9 versus EnVyUs will take on CLG in the semi-finals, while Virtus.pro is awaiting for the winner of the second game between fnatic and Keyd Stars. A loss tomorrow - in 5-6th place - pays $12,500, while a semi-finals spot already doubles it, with significant upwards potential, meaning there is a lot more money in play than at a usual non-Valve event.

With a $100,000 up for grabs, and with the tournament now shifting to a best-of-three mode - until the grand final, which will be played in best-of-five - there's plenty of action coming ahead, even if TSM is no longer involved and it's spread out over three days.

Tomorrow will feature two best-of-three series 

 

Action continues tomorrow at 16:00 with Cloud9 taking on EnVyUs in a match we have previewed here. Second game scheduled for tomorrow is fnatic versus Keyd Stars.

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