fnatic vs. Virtus.pro stats preview

In the past three months - a reasonable timeframe for a statistical analysis to keep all the data at least somewhat relevant - fnatic have played a total of six matches, or eleven maps, versus Virtus.pro.

Out of those six matches, the Black and Orange side have won four, while the Poles have prevailed in two - including the grand final of ESEA Invite Season 18 Finals, where they won $70,000.

In terms of maps, Filip "⁠NEO⁠" Kubski's side have won just three maps against Olof "⁠olofmeister⁠" Kajbjer's eight - a clear advantage in favor of the Swedes, whose results outside of the series are better as well.

Looking at more recent results the picture gets even darker for Virtus, who have lost six straight maps to fnatic, their last win coming nearly two months ago on May 5 on de_cobblestone.

Date	Team	Score	Team	Map	Event
Jun 23	fnatic	16-12	Virtus.pro	de_overpass	FACEIT
Jun 18	fnatic	16-2	Virtus.pro	de_cobblestone	ESL ESEA
May 17	fnatic	19-16	Virtus.pro	de_dust2	Gfinity Spring II
May 17	fnatic	16-9	Virtus.pro	de_cache	Gfinity Spring II
May 17	fnatic	16-10	Virtus.pro	de_cobblestone	Gfinity Spring II
May 5	fnatic	16-5	Virtus.pro	de_cache	Game Show
May 5	fnatic	7-16	Virtus.pro	de_cobblestone	Game Show
May 5	fnatic	19-15	Virtus.pro	de_mirage	Game Show
Apr 19	fnatic	13-16	Virtus.pro	de_cache	ESEA S18 Finals
Apr 19	fnatic	16-9	Virtus.pro	de_inferno	ESEA S18 Finals
Apr 7	fnatic	6-16	Virtus.pro	de_mirage	FACEIT
Average	fnatic	14.45-11.45	Virtus.pro

Having won five more maps, fnatic boast a favorable round differential of exactly three rounds per game, at 14.45 to 11.45. Not a huge difference, but noticeable nonetheless.

When it comes to maps, Virtus.pro do not possess a lead on any of the six maps these teams have faced each other on in the past three months. However, they are tied on de_mirage.

On the other maps - five in total - fnatic boast one map leads. One of the things that makes this series interesting is the fact neither team has maps they always veto.

Both fnatic and Virtus.pro are known to play all the maps in the pool, which is why neither will have a clear advantage in the banning phase - thus making for a better match-up.

Wins per map	fnatic	Virtus.pro
de_cache	2	1
de_cobblestone	2	1
de_dust2	1	-
de_inferno	1	-
de_mirage	1	1
de_overpass	1	-
Total	8	3

Next we have put together player statistics for all the eleven qualifying maps these teams have faced each other on. Notably fnatic have won more of them, leading to better statistics.

First thing to point ous is that olofmeister - arguably the world's best player right now - hasn't been very effective in their head-to-head match-ups against Virtus.pro.

The best performer from fnatic has been Jesper "⁠JW⁠" Wecksell, who is one of three players - all from fnatic - to possess a higher rating in the series versus Virtus.pro than in the past three months.

In Virtus.pro NEO has been the biggest underperformer in the matches against fnatic - compared to their ratings for the past three months - with a rating differential of -0.23.

Looking at fnatic's eight map wins, practically nothing has changed. In fact, all ten players - in each team - are in the exact same order, as sorted by rating, in these maps.

The largest underperformer has once again been NEO, whose importance to the team has increased in correlation to Jarosław "⁠pashaBiceps⁠" Jarząbkowski's decline.

Despite beating pashaBiceps in one-on-one duels streamed on Twitch, olofmeister continues his struggles, even in fnatic's wins - showing he hasn't been a key player in this particular series.

In Virtus.pro's three lonely wins we finally see some changes in the pecking order for both teams. For the Poles, both Janusz "⁠Snax⁠" Pogorzelski and NEO improved their stance within the squad.

On fnatic, the statistics have seemingly gone mad with in-game leader Markus "⁠pronax⁠" Wallsten on top of the scoreboard, follower by Robin "⁠flusha⁠" Rönnquist, and the team's best player at the very bottom.

It's obvious eliminating the effect of fnatic's best players is key to Virtus.pro's victories, and it hardly seems surprising that you cannot beat a tier one team with pronax as your top fragger.

A comparison of all ten players' ratings in their wins and losses confirms the observation, with fnatic's JW and olofmeister as the sole clear overperformers in wins.

Other players above the average have been Paweł "⁠byali⁠" Bieliński, NEO, Snax and Freddy "⁠KRIMZ⁠" Johansson.

Fittingly the only two players clearly below the mean value have been each team's weakest fraggers - pronax and Wiktor "⁠TaZ⁠" Wojtas - with flusha not far behind.

Player	Wins	Losses	Differential
Jesper "⁠JW⁠" Wecksell	1.29	0.72	+0.57
Olof "⁠olofmeister⁠" Kajbjer	1.15	0.69	+0.46
Paweł "⁠byali⁠" Bieliński	1.31	0.90	+0.41
Filip "⁠NEO⁠" Kubski	1.13	0.72	+0.41
Janusz "⁠Snax⁠" Pogorzelski	1.23	0.83	+0.40
Freddy "⁠KRIMZ⁠" Johansson	1.19	0.79	+0.40
Jarosław "⁠pashaBiceps⁠" Jarząbkowski	1.23	0.85	+0.38
Robin "⁠flusha⁠" Rönnquist	1.16	0.86	+0.30
Wiktor "⁠TaZ⁠" Wojtas	1.05	0.80	+0.25
Markus "⁠pronax⁠" Wallsten	0.95	0.88	+0.07
Average			+0.37

So far at this tournament Virtus.pro have arguably looked better, but it could also be a case of having a smaller sample size, and weaker opponents, benefitting them in this regard.

Though fnatic have an unmatchable record in $250,000 tournaments, Virtus.pro are also a team who seem to elevate their level of play when there's a lot at stake, such as this weekend.

Each team has a different approach to the game, yet neither has a weak map they always remove, and both teams seem to play better when there is more at stake.

fnatic will face off with Virtus.pro tomorrow at roughly 19:20 , or soon after the first semi-final of CLG versus Cloud9 at ESL ESEA Pro League Season 1 Finals in Cologne.

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