FACEIT Major quarter-finals preview - part 2

BIG and Natus Vincere kicked-off the action at the SSE Wembley Arena, with the match being won quickly by the Ukrainian side. Complexity - MIBR followed, and it was a somewhat closer series than its predecessor, but Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo and co. still took a convincing victory in the end.

On Friday, two favorites for the title will step on the stage. The first one, Liquid, has been flawless so far in London, and will take on a massive underdog in HellRaisers. The second favorite is Astralis, who will have to defeat a struggling, but still dangerous FaZe, for a place in the semi-finals.

Ratings used are from the FACEIT Major New Legends Stage
Friday, 17:15
Liquid	Rating		HellRaisers	Rating
NAF	1.41		ISSAA	1.32
Twistzz	1.37		woxic	1.14
EliGE	1.31	vs.	bondik	1.06
nitr0	1.15		ANGE1	0.90
TACO	0.94		DeadFox	0.86
zews (coach)			Johnta (coach)
EGB odd: 3.30			EGB odd: 57.33

A strong team going into the event, a 6-0 map record in the two Swiss stages, all three star players on point—it seems like everything is aligning for Liquid to have a great Major. While Milan "Striker" Švejda explored Liquid's chances to lift the trophy and pointed out some worrying signs, the match against HellRaisers isn't the one Liquid should be worrying about.

While HellRaisers have had some good results, they are yet to beat any really good teams in London, and have looked out of their depth when facing the world's elite. The ISSAA-woxic duo has been exciting to watch, but only the Jordanian has been consistent to the level of all three of Liquid's key players. HellRaisers have also shown that they have issues closing out games as they tend to lose silly rounds, something like that won't fly against a team of Liquid's caliber, who capitalize on even minor mistakes.

Liquid are massive favorites going into their first playoff match in London

Map pool wise, HellRaisers don't have any obvious weaknesses that Liquid can exploit, but the North Americans are simply better overall and should be confident however the veto ends up going. Browsing the team-based FTU statistics, a similar pattern can be seen—Liquid are good across the board, while HellRaisers are struggling with openings, but balance it out with late-round multikills and winning 4v5s at a slightly above-average rate.

With Liquid being such a well-rounded team, it is hard to find an edge for HellRaisers in this match. For any chance of an upset, they will need not only both woxic and ISSAA in prime form, but the trio of bondik, ANGE1 and DeadFox to step up in their respective departments, as well as for Liquid to fall apart as a team. It is a long shot.

Ratings used are from the FACEIT Major New Legends Stage
Friday, 20:45
Astralis	Rating		FaZe	Rating
device	1.39		NiKo	1.31
Magisk	1.30		olofmeister	1.30
dupreeh	1.23	vs.	GuardiaN	1.11
gla1ve	1.18		rain	1.01
Xyp9x	1.06		karrigan	0.95
zonic (coach)			RobbaN (coach)
EGB odd: 3.85			EGB odd: 11.40

The last quarter-final is in some ways similar to the previous one, as Astralis are a well rounded team with great performances in the first two stages of the tournament, while FaZe have struggled and evidently have issues, but also some dangerous traits. While the similarities of Liquid and Astralis have been widely explored, there is a big difference on the other side as FaZe is a much stronger squad than HellRaisers on paper, and, therefore, the chances of an upset are much higher as well.

Looking at the Danes, the only department in which they are lagging behind the top teams at this tournament, albeit only slightly, are multikill rounds (0.84), but that is balanced out with device and Magisk being excellent at getting entries, which leads to them having an entry kill in 64% of the rounds they have played. Overall, their game plan has been working well so far at the event; they have only lost two maps, both in overtime and both to respectable teams: Liquid and Ninjas in Pyjamas. While there have been some cracks in Astralis' armor shown over the course of the event, the talk of their issues has been somewhat overblown—starting slowly and building up form for the playoffs is a characteristic of a championship-winning team, and that is exactly what Astralis are.

A solid side like Astralis should be able to outlast FaZe

On the other hand, FaZe started the tournament poorly, going 0-2 before swapping the in-game leader role to NiKo and grabbing a playoff spot. Considering that, FaZe are in a great place: they have already survived a bad start and secured Legends status; everything on top of that is just an added bonus. They are the underdogs going into the match against Astralis, have no pressure on them, and that is exactly when FaZe are the most dangerous.

There is also the fact that, with a new in-game leader calling the shots, FaZe will be more unpredictable, making it harder for Astralis to do their homework on any map except Mirage, which the European squad played three times on their way to the playoffs. And it is not like FaZe will play completely random CS; they still have tactics and the foundation of structure karrigan built, but with NiKo being the one to pick and choose what will be used and when—Gambit replacing Danylo "⁠Zeus⁠" Teslenko with Bektiyar "⁠fitch⁠" Bahytov is an example of how well this can work, at least for the short term. And with NiKo and olofmeister both in red-hot form and a potential big showing from GuardiaN, Astralis could have a lot to deal with on their hands.

It all comes down to Astralis sticking to their guns, either preparing for Mirage well, or, more likely, vetoing the map and taking FaZe outside of their comfort zone. With no massive dropoffs from their players or a massive step-up from rain, who has been quiet lately, gla1ve and co. should be able to control the fury of FaZe and take the victory over the course of the BO3.