Back to LAN: five key storylines of IEM Cologne

After 491 days, Counter-Strike returns to LAN for one of the biggest tournaments of the year. How will the champions of the online era handle the new environment?

Last year’s unprecedented situation, the breakout of the coronavirus pandemic, left the CS:GO scene scrambling to find a way to keep the show going on despite severe restrictions on travel and hosting events. In no time, online play became the new standard, replacing LAN tournaments and arenas filled with people. In a different setting, new stars rose to the top, former champions fell to the wayside, and many fans were left wondering: "Would this have happened on LAN?"

The long wait is finally over - IEM Cologne is here to give us some answers. Albeit the tournament will be held in a studio environment with strict measures to ensure the safety of the players and staff — not in the LANXESS Arena where Liquid, NAVI, SK, and fnatic famously lifted the Cologne trophy in front of 10,000 fans —, getting to see Gambit and HEROIC in an offline environment for the first time will be a great treat to end the competitive season.

It is not just about the new squads that rose to prominence in the online era. In the past year, some of the biggest organizations have signed youngsters with minimal LAN experience: Valeriy "⁠b1t⁠" Vakhovskiy, Kévin "⁠misutaaa⁠" Rabier, Jayson "⁠Kyojin⁠" Nguyen Van, Linus "⁠LNZ⁠" Holtäng, Michael "⁠Grim⁠" Wince, and Aurimas "⁠Bymas⁠" Pipiras are just some examples of players that are yet to play a LAN with their current teams. How will they handle the LAN jitters?

Looking at the two best teams of 2018 and 2019, Astralis and Liquid, both sides have dropped off significantly over the last year, as have FaZe who continued to shuffle their roster and have not been able to find their footing under Finn "⁠karrigan⁠" Andersen in 2021. Will a return to a low-ping environment see these teams return to the top?

These are the main storylines going into the $1,000,000 IEM Cologne, which kicks off on July 6 with a 16-team play-in stage, from where eight teams will join the likes of Natus Vincere and G2 in the groups. The winner will be decided after two weeks of play, following the grand final of July 18.

Back to LAN. Kind of

The biggest talking point regarding IEM Cologne certainly revolves around the fact that, for the first time since IEM Katowice in March of 2020, the world’s best teams will gather at one location and play Counter-Strike on LAN. But as ESL decided to tread on the side of caution with the first offline event since the coronavirus outbreak, IEM Cologne 2021 will be far away from the blockbuster tournament it was between 2015 and 2019.

Read more: Carmac on IEM Cologne: "It's probably the biggest challenge of the last five years because it's so different and difficult"

The action will take place behind closed doors, without live viewers, in the ballroom of the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Cologne. The same venue has hosted group stage matches of Cologne events in the past, with the setup expected to be a familiar one for players and viewers alike. Due to measures put in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19, no contact between players from different teams will be allowed, at least for the first week.

All of the limitations put in place mean that IEM Cologne won’t be the kind of a LAN CS:GO fans got used to watching before the online era - where playoffs take place in massive arenas in front of thousands of screaming fans. Without that level of pressure, the best teams of the online era won’t be able to fully prove themselves in Cologne, but a good result could be a step in the right direction.

If nothing else, playing on LAN in a highly/controlled environment will provide us with the purest form of Counter-Strike - one untainted by doubts of teams using external assistance such as a coach bug or an undelayed GOTV feed. It will also provide viewers with a unique reason to tune in to this event, even if they felt burned out from the countless online games that were available over the last two years, guaranteeing a great spectacle.

Gambit and Heroic looking to "do it on LAN"

Almost every team at IEM Cologne has something to prove, but two teams stand out: Gambit and HEROIC. When we entered the online era in March of 2020, HEROIC were ranked just 14th in the world and went on to crash down to 38th as they overhauled the roster in the following months, while Gambit (Youngsters at the time) were struggling to become a stable top-30 squad.

As teams returned from the 2020 summer break and the realization that the online era wasn’t going anywhere soon started setting in, the two young squads starting stepping up their game.

In no time, Casper "⁠cadiaN⁠" Møller’s team soared to the No. 1 spot in the world after winning IEM Cologne 2020 Europe and DreamHack Open Fall. Gambit looked good in the second half of 2020, but truly blossomed after the turn of the year, with the return of PGL Krakow Major winner Abay "⁠HObbit⁠" Khassenov inspiring the squad to four top-tier tournament wins and three second-place finishes in the first six months of 2021.

It is the stark contrast between their level before the online era and their current performances that has made Gambit and HEROIC the focal point of the discussions regarding "onliners", teams that might not be able to hold their own when we return to LAN. With both teams having four newcomers to the top level and just one veteran, there is some cause for concern regarding how they will perform, but a studio event such as IEM Cologne 2021 seems like the perfect way to ease them into LAN play.

Where are the gods of yesteryear?

Thinking back to 2018 and 2019, two teams defined the top tier of competitive Counter-Strike: Astralis and Liquid. Both teams held strong in the initial year of the online era, but 2021 hasn't been kind to them so far.

Their issues have been put down to burnout, lack of motivation, and many other factors tied to online play, with poor runs of form leading to the departures of iconic players for both sides: Russel "⁠Twistzz⁠" Van Dulken and Nick "⁠nitr0⁠" Cannella for Liquid, as well as Nicolai "⁠device⁠" Reedtz for Astralis.

IEM Cologne would have been the perfect chance for the former rivals to show that it really was the coronavirus pandemic that played a key part in their dropoff, but it may have come too late. With Liquid now a significantly changed squad and Astralis seemingly on the brink of a massive overhaul, it is probably time to accept that they are not even part of the discussion when it comes to the favourites.

On the other hand, the third-best team of the past few years, Natus Vincere, managed to turn things around early in 2021 with the addition of academy player b1t, who replaced Egor "⁠flamie⁠" Vasilyev. Aside from G2, Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev and co. seem like the only team truly capable of challenging the young blood for the title in Cologne.

Last chance to impress

IEM Cologne 2021 marks the end of the first tournament season and the start of the summer break. With that, the unofficial shuffle season will begin, when teams look to solidify their rosters and patch holes before a return to action in August, and the PGL Major Stockholm closes in.

So for a lot of attendees of the event, this is the time to show what they are made of and either strenghten their positions or attract interest from new suitors. What is the future of Lucas "⁠honda⁠" Cano on FURIA? Will Josef "⁠faveN⁠" Baumann make the step up to BIG? Can international squads such as Complexity, FaZe, and Evil Geniuses break past their plateau, or will pieces break away to join more established teams?

Team results and individual performances at IEM Cologne will play a big part in the upcoming rostermania, so keep an eye out for players seeming especially inspired at the $1,000,000 event, as well as for teams that might be pushed towards a change after a hard flop.

Can someone get within reach of an Intel Grand Slam?

The $1,000,000 prize for a team that truly stamps down their foot on the competition and creates an era is once again becoming a talking point. Currently, this seems to be a two-horse race between Gambit and Natus Vincere, who have developed a fierce rivalry in recent months, with both teams having two tournament wins.

The CIS pair are also the biggest favorites for the IEM Cologne title, which would put them one IGS-eligible tournament trophy away from repeating the feat pulled off by Astralis in 2018 and Liquid in 2019.

Read more: Intel Grand Slam race heats up as Gambit secure second title

Lukas "⁠gla1ve⁠" Rossander's side are technically also in it, but it is hard to see them doing well with their recent form, and they have no leeway - they need to win their next two events to complete the run. Another team that could spice up the race is HEROIC, for whom Cologne would be their second title - and they would have six chances to add two more.

The Intel Grand Slam Season 3 standing is as follows:

Gambit - 2 wins (1 Masters), 6 remaining chances
Natus Vincere - 2 wins (1 Masters), 4 remaining chances
Astralis - 2 wins (0 Masters), 2 remaining chances
HEROIC - 1 win (0 Masters), 7 remaining chances
MOUZ * - 1 win (0 Masters), 3 remaining chances

* mousesports no longer have the 3-man core from the EPL S10 win

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