EPL Group C: Four teams battle for two playoffs spots

We've crunched the numbers to calculate the chances of FaZe, MOUZ, fnatic, and BIG advancing to the playoffs after the final round of the group.

Only three matches are left to be played in Group C at ESL Pro League Season 14 as we are heading into the final round of play, which is set to kick off at 20:00 . Four teams are still in the running for two spots in the knockout stages of the tournament with Natus Vincere able to breathe a little easier — they cannot be eliminated anymore due to favorable records in three-way ties with MOUZ and fnatic and BIG and fnatic — and Evil Geniuses slated to finish sixth in the group.

It is all to play for as far as FaZe, MOUZ, fnatic, and BIG are concerned, so let's break down what needs to happen for each of the teams to advance to the playoffs and how their chances are looking ahead of the fifth round, calculated based on odds the bet365 bookies have for each match as of Tuesday morning.

Current standings

1-2. Natus Vincere (3-1) - confirmed to advance
1-2. FaZe (3-1)
3-5. MOUZ (2-2)
3-5. fnatic (2-2)
3-5. BIG (2-2)
6. Evil Geniuses (0-4) - confirmed eliminated

Remaining matches

20:00 Natus Vincere vs. FaZe (72.2%-27.8%)
20:00 BIG vs. MOUZ (43.6%-56.4%)
20:00 Evil Geniuses vs. fnatic (34.3%-65.7%)

FaZe - 74% chance

FaZe are in a prime position to lock down one of the top three spots in the group due to just one of the eight remaining combinations putting them outside of the qualifying places. Not only do they have a chance to clinch first place in the group if they beat Natus Vincere, they will still advance to the knockout stages even in case of a loss as long as at least one of BIG and Evil Geniuses win in the other two matches.

A three-way tie with fnatic and MOUZ for second place is the only scenario Finn "⁠karrigan⁠" Andersen and company need to avoid, as it would end with FaZe in fourth place because of an unfavorable map difference in the head-to-head results with the two teams.

Although this three-way tie is the most likely scenario out of eight to happen given that Natus Vincere, MOUZ, and fnatic are favored to win their respective matches, in combination the odds are well in FaZe's favor at 74%.

mousesports - 56% chance

Things couldn't be simpler for MOUZ, as the Christopher "⁠dexter⁠" Nong-led squad is the only one of the four whose fate relies only on their own result. A win against BIG would guarantee them second or third place in the group and a spot in the playoffs, while a loss would see them eliminated in fourth or fifth place. With the odds putting MOUZ as slight favorites in their final match, they are sitting at a 56% chance to make it through.

fnatic - 47% chance

On the other hand, fnatic's chances depend on a result other than their own as they head into a must-win match against the bottom-placed Evil Geniuses who no longer have anything to lose. The Swedish-British squad need to avoid a three-way tie featuring Natus Vincere at all costs on top of that, and for that they require the CIS side to beat FaZe.

As Natus Vincere are the heavy favorites against FaZe and fnatic similarly so in their encounter with Evil Geniuses, Freddy "⁠KRIMZ⁠" Johansson team's odds don't look too bad at 47%.

BIG - 23% chance

Meanwhile, BIG are up against tall odds ahead of the fifth round in Group C at just 23%. The Germans are heading into a toss-up series against MOUZ which they need to win, and to steer clear of a losing three-way tie with FaZe and fnatic they also need a large upset to take place in at least one of the other two matches.