NIP and FURIA in contention for last playoffs spot in ESL Pro League

With Gambit and Liquid confirmed to advance from Group D, one last spot is left to be decided in the last round of play.

The final round of the ESL Pro League Season 14 group stage kicks off at 20:00 with Group D set to produce one final team who will lock a spot in the playoffs.

Heading into the last three matches, only two of the six teams have something to play for. Nothing will change Gambit placing first in the group and getting to skip a round in the bracket stage, while Liquid are set to finish in the top three and move on to the Round of 12. With TeamOne out of the running and Entropiq unable to reach playoffs even if they enter a three-way tie, the last spot is left to be decided between FURIA and Ninjas in Pyjamas.

The Swedes might look like the underdogs if you consider that only three out of eight possible scenarios would see them advance, but the reality is different if you take into account that quite a large upset would need to take place for the Brazilian side to go through.

Here's how the chances are looking for either of the two teams to make it to the playoffs by the end of the day.

Current standings

1. Gambit (4-0) - Confirmed first
2. Liquid (3-1) - Confirmed to advance
3-4. FURIA (2-2)
3-4. Ninjas in Pyjamas (2-2)
5. Entropiq (1-3) - Confirmed eliminated
6. TeamOne (0-4) - Confirmed eliminated

Remaining matches

20:00 Gambit (76.5%) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (23.5%)
20:00 Liquid (85.6%) vs. FURIA (14.4%)
20:00 Entropiq (83.5%) vs. TeamOne (16.5%)

Percentages are set according to odds by LOOT.BET

NIP - 75% chance to advance

Ninjas in Pyjamas can take solace in the fact that they don't need to pull off a big upset in their final match of the group against Gambit to be able to advance, because all they require to lock in third place is all three big betting favorites winning their matches in the final round.

That would put them, FURIA, and Entropiq in a three-way tie for third place, in which Ninjas in Pyjamas would finish on top because of a favorable head-to-head map difference in matches against the other two teams (3-2 map difference, 2-0 vs. Entropiq, 1-2 vs. FURIA).

In combination, that one scenario alone amounts to a 55% chance of happening due to each match being so heavily favored in one direction. With a win over Gambit increasing their odds to 75% in total, there is a high likelihood of the Swedes advancing despite their head-to-head loss to FURIA on Saturday.

But in the same vein, Ninjas in Pyjamas could get eliminated even if they do beat Dmitry "⁠sh1ro⁠" Sokolov and company in the final match.

FURIA - 25% chance to advance

That is because FURIA beating Liquid in the fifth round would see the Brazilians make it to the bracket stage and eliminate Ninjas in Pyjamas in the process. A tough ask for a team playing with their coach, to say the least, but not entirely out of the realms of possibilities given how competitive they have looked with Nicholas "⁠guerri⁠" Nogueira in three of their four matches.

On top of the 14% chance that the bookmakers give FURIA to take down Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo's squad, there is a 11% chance scenario that would see the Brazilians advance even if they lose to Liquid. For that, they would need Gambit to beat Ninjas in Pyjamas (the expected result) and TeamOne to pull off a huge upset against Entropiq so that FURIA avoid the dreaded three-way tie outlined above.

All in all, it doesn't look too bad on paper for Andrei "⁠arT⁠" Piovezan and company, but it's still a tall task ahead for them, especially when you take into account that Gambit have nothing to play for in their encounter with Ninjas in Pyjamas.