No clear favourite for IEM Katowice - a playoffs preview

The race for IEM Katowice is wide open, so we explore why each of the six teams left standing have a fighting chance to secure one of the biggest titles of the year.

The 10th-anniversary edition of IEM Katowice has already provided a wealth of memorable moments, iconic plays and fantastic Counter-Strike, and the playoffs are yet to begin. This IEM Katowice feels particularly special because of just how competitive the field is; it truly does seem like any of the six teams that have made it this far could go on and win the whole thing.

We have the mighty Natus Vincere, who have struggled to recapture the form that saw them dominate 2021; their perennial rivals, Gambit, recovered from a slow start to the tournament and grow ever-more dangerous. HEROIC shook off a shock result in Pinnacle Winter Series 1 to storm through the group stage with aplomb. Virtus.pro started the year in blistering form and seek to continue their growth since adding Evgenii "⁠FL1T⁠" Lebedev. G2 have shown glimpses of the peaks their new roster could hit, and their superstar Nikola "⁠NiKo⁠" Kovač is in outrageous form. FaZe had to battle COVID to make it this far, but with Helvijs "⁠broky⁠" Saukants on fire and Robin "⁠ropz⁠" Kool back in the lineup, anything feels possible.

Every single one of these teams enters the playoffs with a wealth of positive factors driving them forward, as well as some flaws that may prove fatal to their chances of victory. Read on to discover exactly what these pros and cons are, and what may need to come to pass for each team to etch their name into that iconic IEM Katowice trophy.

Natus Vincere

A wounded giant is still dangerous

Natus Vincere began this year as masters of all they surveyed; the undisputed kings of CS:GO, reigning Major champions and home to the best player in the world and perhaps of all time, Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev. Their run in the back half of 2021 was so dominant that it had many discussing the possibility of another Astralis-like era on the horizon.

2022 arrived with a reality check for Natus Vincere as they came out of their first event of the year, BLAST Premier Spring Groups, looking very much mortal. Having lost only three series after the player break last year, they lost three matches (one series, two best-of-ones) in this single BLAST event and looked unconvincing even as they did manage to squeak qualification for the Spring Finals.

As such the CIS giants came into Katowice with question marks hanging over their heads, and they have emphatically answered some of those by making it to the playoffs without dropping a series. However, they haven't banished them all; they suffered a 16-4 spanking by ENCE on Nuke in their opening game, and were run very close in their bout by a FaZe plagued by COVID-related issues and on little practice with their main roster.

There are two ways to look at Natus Vincere's state right now. The first school of thought says that they are shy of their best form, and as such should be considered there for the taking. The second would be that even in a mini-slump Natus Vincere are still too much to handle for everyone else, and that if anything it should be expected that they ramp up heading to the arena for the real high-stakes games.

The brutal reality is that despite not being at their imperious best, Natus Vincere are still favourites to take the trophy. Even with s1mple just shy of his peak numbers, even with Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov and Valeriy "⁠b1t⁠" Vakhovskiy seeming a little inconsistent, even with Kirill "⁠Boombl4⁠" Mikhailov playing from isolation due to a COVID scare the CIS squad are still a near-impossible nut to crack. Ultimately, their LAN pedigree above all else means that they are still tough to look beyond when discussing favourites for the IEM Katowice trophy.

Gambit

Young prodigies seeking glory

After bursting into the tier-one scene in dramatic fashion in 2021 Gambit have solidified themselves as one of the most accomplished teams competing in CS:GO right now, with many tournament wins to their name. They have even shown some resilience in the face of adversity, having worked their way back to something near their best after falling off around IEM Cologne last year, when LAN CS returned.

2022 began with a bang as the Russian squad comfortably took home the Funspark ULTI Finals title ahead of teams like BIG, Astralis and Entropiq, and they bounced back from an opening loss to Ninjas in Pyjamas here in Katowice by growing in stature with each passing series.

Gambit have started to look utterly terrifying as this tournament has gone on, with their fearsome T sides in particular standing out due to the immense mid-round calling and playmaking displayed by the squad; in a CT-sided meta, being able to put together strong offensive halves are an absolute boon for any team. Their map pool too seems to be getting back to early-2021 stature, with their issues on Dust2 and Vertigo seemingly ironed out coming into this year.

Not only are they looking strong as a unit, but individually Gambit could claim to be in the hottest form of any team right now due to the superlative displays of their two star players, Sergey "⁠Ax1Le⁠" Rykhtorov and Dmitry "⁠sh1ro⁠" Sokolov. In fact, Gambit are the only team to feature two players in the top 10 rated for Katowice so far. Whilst every other team in the playoffs is relying on one superstar to get the bulk of the work done, Gambit have two.

With a deep map pool, their stars firing on all cylinders and potent T sides, Gambit will be a tough ask for anyone in this field, including their ever-present nemesis Natus Vincere. If they can continue the progress they have shown in their LAN form, Gambit may finally be able to shake all doubt surrounding their greatness and secure their first big LAN title.

HEROIC

The Danes rediscover their best form

HEROIC seemed to stagnate towards the end of last year, dropping off from the peak form that saw them win ESL Pro League towards the start of 2021 and settling into perennial playoff contenders. They were no slouches, as their top-four run at the Major would attest to, but they seemed unable to step up in a LAN environment to match their best showings of the online era.

They started the year with a severe hiccup, losing to K23 in the Pinnacle Winter Series, but it seems they quickly brushed this off before arriving in Katowice as they have gone from strength to strength in this event despite a tough schedule; they have played OG, Vitality and Virtus.pro so far, winning all three series.

Much like Gambit, HEROIC have also produced some of the most convincing T sides of the tournament so far, utilising strong preparation and a varied playbook to keep their opponents constantly on their toes and fighting for every round.

One of the main criticisms that might have plagued the Danes coming into the playoffs would have been their over-reliance on Martin "⁠stavn⁠" Lund to post superstar numbers, but the series against Virtus.pro served to put those concerns to bed as the whole team contributed both in terms of raw fragging and in terms of impact in that match.

The other question, and this one hasn't been tackled just yet, is that of HEROIC on LAN; can the Danes finally surmount that final hurdle and at least make it to a grand final in the LAN environment?

The final concern one might raise when looking at HEROIC is around Casper "⁠cadiaN⁠" Møller's AWPing; can he really go head to head with players like s1mple, sh1ro, broky and Dzhami "⁠Jame⁠" Ali considering the excellent form these players are in?

One thing is for sure, and that is the fact that HEROIC's form so far in this event justifies their status as the most legitimate dark-horse to take the IEM Katowice trophy. If they can keep this hot streak going, find a way to harness stavn's fragging and protect cadiaN in the AWP vs AWP matchups, then there is no reason to think the Danes can't open their account for 2022 nice and early.

Virtus.pro

Strength in depth overall

A promising end to 2021 greeted Virtus.pro after they swapped Sanjar "⁠SANJI⁠" Kuliev for FL1T just before the Major, and if any naysayers were chuntering at the removal of a player who sacrificed themselves to be a supportive element, those people are suspiciously quiet right about now.

Virtus.pro have looked infinitely better since bringing FL1T into the team, in particular on the T side; the balance of their offense is much improved, where previously it was simply too passive outside of Mareks "⁠YEKINDAR⁠" Gaļinskis. The raw level of skill they now possess across the squad makes them a menace on CT side as well.

A cracking start to the year saw the CIS squad take the ESL Challenger February title without dropping a map, and they continued this hot form into Katowice, only being bested just prior to the playoffs by HEROIC. The game against the Danes is cause for some concern, as Virtus.pro were never really competitive and looked a completely different side from the one we had seen up to that point in the event.

There are also a few question marks to be raised around the map pool, specifically their issues on Vertigo; they have lost the map twice so far at this event alone, and they ended 2021 with a loss on the map too. That is not a great look considering they were considered one of the best teams on that map through most of last year.

Another slight asterisk is the fact that Virtus.pro don't seem to have a true superstar level player right now who can compete with the best of the other playoff teams; Jame's 1.17 rating is a good way short of the next lowest rated "best" player, s1mple, who sports a 1.30 rating. They are however remarkably consistent across the team, with four players posting over a 1.08 rating.

Virtus.pro will be hoping that they can use their strength in depth to their advantage, and considering the form they have shown so far this year it is believable that they will. If they can maintain their consistency across the team, continue to build on their promising T sides and tidy up their Vertigo, then there is no reason to think Virtus.pro can't go all the way in Katowice.

G2

Ambition personified

Despite having a strong 2021 that many teams would label a success, it was not enough for the ambitious organisation that is G2, and thus they overhauled their team in the off-season, bringing in a highly rated coach, a new IGL and a hot prospect AWPer.

So far this year the signs for the new-look squad have been promising, with their superstar rifler NiKo going god-mode more often than not, Nemanja "⁠huNter-⁠" Kovač maintaining his solid form, and Ilya "⁠m0NESY⁠" Osipov showing flashes of the brilliance that made him such a hot property.

They have, however, also displayed a concerning inconsistency. At BLAST they managed to spank Ninjas in Pyjamas 16-6, and then found themselves needing to conjure a monumental comeback to beat Ninjas in Pyjamas 22-19 in the very next game. Here in Katowice they smacked fnatic 16-2 in the first map of their opening series, only to capitulate and lose the next two. In their qualification bout they lost the first map to Astralis, only to absolutely demolish them a combined 32-6 across the next two maps.

They even seem to be inconsistent map-to-map; they are able to both win and lose on Inferno seemingly at random, and are capable of dropping Mirage despite that seemingly being one of their home maps.

Ultimately, G2 are one of the hardest teams to gauge coming into the playoffs at IEM Katowice due to the fact they are a new roster and still seem to be figuring themselves out. Even if consistency is an issue, the sheer firepower on display between NiKo, huNter- and m0NESY could be enough to see them through to a grand final, and once you get there, anything can happen.

FaZe

Overcoming circumstance

FaZe were a solid yet unspectacular top-10 team throughout 2021, and as such sought to upgrade in the off-season. Upgrade they did, in spectacular fashion, bringing in one of the premier talents in the game in the form of ropz, swapping out slowly declining veteran Olof "⁠olofmeister⁠" Kajbjer.

2022 started brightly for the international squad with a success at the BLAST Spring Groups; they qualified, dropping a single map to Vitality and they avenged that later in the event with a strong 16-10 win on Overpass. Importantly they got star numbers out of ropz from the off, and the future for the year was looking promising.

Unfortunately come Katowice the team was forced battle through the play-in with a stand-in, ropz forced to sit out with COVID, and then they had to deal with Håvard "⁠rain⁠" Nygaard playing from isolation. Still the squad managed to deal with the rough set of circumstances, Justin "⁠jks⁠" Savage doing an admirable job standing in as the squad managed to make it all the way to the playoffs.

They also managed to run Natus Vincere incredibly close in the final series of the Katowice group stage, despite not playing with their full squad for most of the event and suffering disrupted practice prior to the event.

With ropz back in the mix, FaZe receive a significant boost to their fragging potential and will be a more dangerous opponent in the eyes of the other playoff squads. Also key is the fact broky has been playing like a legitimate superstar at Katowice so far, his 1.31 rating surpassing the likes of s1mple, and considering the calibre of AWPer he will be fighting against this could be a vital factor. Add Russel "⁠Twistzz⁠" Van Dulken to the melting pot, and suddenly FaZe have a late-round trio that can match up with anyone in the world.

Questions still exist over whether rain will be able to participate in the playoffs with FaZe, having tested positive for COVID during the group stage. Should the veteran rifler be unavailable, it would be hard to expect too much from FaZe in these playoffs, but considering how well they performed with jks during the early stages, who can say for certain they won't succeed?

The sheer fact they have had such a disrupted run at Katowice will work against FaZe, and is the main reason that they are not considered more legitimate contenders for the IEM Katowice title. They do however clearly have the potential, the fragging ability, and the veteran IGL to get the job done. Let's see if they can continue to beat the odds and the context once they get into that arena.

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The HLTV writers' power ranking

Despite the difficulties in predicting the final standings, the HLTV writers got our heads together and produced a power ranking for IEM Katowice which you can see below.

Do you agree? Who have we over or underrated? Give us YOUR power ranking in the comments below.