Astralis face off against Complexity for last playoffs spot at EPL

Complexity are up against tough odds heading into the final round of play in Group D.

Undefeated after four rounds, Natus Vincere and HEROIC are set to face off at 19:30 to decide who gets to skip the first round in the bracket stage, but an even more important battle will take place elsewhere for the final playoffs spot on offer in Group D at ESL Pro League S15.

Astralis had been widely anticipated to clinch third place and have so far lived up to the expectations, sitting on a 2-2 record after they took down Evil Geniuses and AGO in convincing fashion and conceded close series to the aforementioned favorites. The Danes still have to defend their claim on third place in the final round, however, with a Complexity matchup that will decide which of the two teams advances awaiting them tonight at 19:30 .

The fight for third place

Current Group D standings:
1-2. Natus Vincere (4-0)
1-2. HEROIC (4-0)
3. Astralis (2-2)
4-5. Complexity (1-3)
4-5. AGO (1-3)
6. Evil Geniuses (0-4)

Final round (Sunday, 19:30 )
HEROIC vs. Natus Vincere
Complexity vs. Astralis
AGO vs. Evil Geniuses

Astralis can take solace in the fact that the odds are well in their favor. Not only do all the bookies back Lukas "⁠gla1ve⁠" Rossander's team to beat the North American side in almost four to one odds, the Danes would advance even if they lost the series 1-2 in the case that AGO beat Evil Geniuses, as well.

The resulting three-way tie between COL, Astralis, and AGO would be resolved by head-to-head map difference, where a map win in the final match would put Astralis ahead of Complexity and the Poles, while Johnny "⁠JT⁠" Theodosiou's team would be through with a 2-0.

That means Complexity need a 2-0 victory to guarantee themselves the playoffs spot no matter what else happens, but a 2-1 win would also suffice if Evil Geniuses defeat AGO in the meantime (a match where EG are considered slight favorites) and prevent the three-way tie.

EG look to avoid scrutiny

With AGO and Evil Geniuses entirely out of the running for playoffs (AGO can't come out on top of that tie due to an unfavorable head-to-head map record), the final match isn't all too important from a competitive standpoint, but it could still have potential repercussions for the Jake "⁠Stewie2K⁠" Yip-led team.

That's because, according to the Louvre Agreement, a partnered organization's permanent spot in ESL Pro League would be subject to review if their team places last in three out of four seasons. If Evil Geniuses lose to AGO, they will place last for the third consecutive time, which means the review could come into effect.

It's unclear whether EG's spot would truly be in danger, however, as the exact details of what the review entails and the conditions under which a partnered organization's slot would be taken away aren't publicly known.