Are we heading for a Rio Major repeat?

We're just a week out from the BLAST.tv Paris Major's kick-off and, as always, the state of the competition this close to the event begs the question: Who are the favorites?

The answer is not simple. So far in 2023 three different teams won the Big Events — G2, FaZe, and Vitality —, but none of them have shown enough consistency otherwise to earn the tag of a true favorite.

G2 kicked off the year how they ended the last, in dominant form and looking unstoppable as they continued their streak and lifted their second trophy in a row at IEM Katowice. It has not been all roses for the team since, though. For all their prowess at the turn of the year, they then showed flaws and disappeared in key series against Cloud9 and ENCE at ESL Pro League and against Vitality at the Europe RMR. The team sometimes lives and dies by their individuals, which has been an affliction when Nemanja "⁠huNter-⁠" Kovač and Justin "⁠jks⁠" Savage, in particular, haven't found quite the same consistency since the Pro League playoffs.

FaZe were the ones to take advantage of G2's drop-off when they finally closed their Intel Grand Slam campaign in Malta, but they too have suffered some serious stumbles since. Finn "⁠karrigan⁠" Andersen's team barely made it through the grueling RMRs from the Last Chance Qualifier, and with zero time to rest they went on to struggle at IEM Rio, as well, bombing out early in the group stage.

Vitality are the latest team to grab silverware, doing so in Rio. It was an impressive run as Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut and company had to play FaZe, Cloud9, and HEROIC on the way, and it was all the more encouraging that it wasn't just because of ZywOo and Lotan "⁠Spinx⁠" Giladi that they found that uptick in form, but it is also important to consider the context of their victory.

It is difficult to judge just how strong the field was in Rio when all you could hear throughout the event from most of the big names was that they were tired and playing at the limit following the grueling qualifying series the week before. It made for a zero-pressure environment for Vitality, too, and that's not the sort of atmosphere that they will get to enjoy at the organization's home Major, with everyone else revitalized and prepared to the fullest.

None of these three are even the No. 1 team right now. Instead, HEROIC are the interim kings as the only team to have played in two grand finals this year, in Katowice and in Rio. The fact that the Danes faltered both times and that they were never truly in contention for either title in the deciders goes to show they still have some ways to go to expunge their demons of old. Without a title in the past six months, they are only warming up the throne.

Nonetheless, HEROIC's current standing at the top cannot be ignored and is a testament to their amazing consistency. Casper "⁠cadiaN⁠" Møller and company have made it to the grand final in four out of the last six Big Events and they are one of only three teams to make it to the playoffs of every post-COVID Major (Natus Vincere and FURIA are the other two) — they almost never bomb out.

Then there are Natus Vincere, another epitome of stability. They are the only team who have made the top four at all three tournaments they have played since Andrii "⁠npl⁠" Kukharskyi joined them full-time at the beginning of the year. NAVI have answered some of the question marks surrounding them following the change, but doubts over if they can be champions remain as they are heading into their biggest test yet.

The return of Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov to form has only offset Valeriy "⁠b1t⁠" Vakhovskiy's issues with consistency. It looks as if npl's head-turning performance at the Europe RMR was not quite the coming of age Natus Vincere were hoping for, as he has since returned to the red zone at IEM Rio. Still, they have put behind their glaring map pool weakness and now have a winning record on five out of the six maps they play. They have slowly inched towards a role setup that works, addressing a problem that has plagued them since the start of the year.

None of the top five teams have the credentials to consider themselves true favorites of the BLAST.tv Paris Major

This quintet of teams, separated by less than 230 points in the HLTV ranking, is by all rights one big group of favorites. After them comes a flurry of contenders for whom you can make a case to win the Major — the right path, enough of the big teams getting upset or meeting each other early, and/or some performances of a lifetime. Liquid and FURIA are the frontrunners of that category, and depending on who you ask you might also be inclined to include ENCE after they have shown that they have a high enough peak with Guy "⁠NertZ⁠" Iluz to be in somewhat realistic contention.

For everyone else winning the Paris Major seems like a pipe dream. However, that's eight names you can make a reasonable case for already, and with no one truly standing out above the rest this leaves the scene in an all too familiar position that it was in prior to the IEM Rio Major six months ago.

The similarity in the state of the competition between then and now is quite uncanny. Heading into the Rio Major, we had just had four different teams win the previous four Big Events. The top six teams looked tightly matched heading into the Major then and any of them could effectively beat each other, with just under 300 points separating them in the ranking, just the same as now. One of the top six teams didn't even make it there, G2 then, same as now with Cloud9 missing out.

Instead, it was the seventh-ranked team that hoisted the trophy in the end: Outsiders capitalized on a combination of disappearances from some of the biggest contenders, breakout performances, and a favorable path through the tournament.

It looks as if everything is lining up for another Major that is impossible to call. We know who the main names in contention are, but as we saw six months ago that can mean nothing once the stage is set and Major pressure is on, especially at a time like this when no one has the confidence to say they are the best. It is all to play for and we can do nothing but wait to see it unfold in the coming weeks.