Stat check: FalleN's FURIA project

Brazil's premier side has paid an eyewatering sum for FalleN and chelo. Is it worth it?

FURIA are a team with lofty ambitions, and being the best team from a region as large as Brazil comes with lofty expectations to match. They have the two best Brazilian players of the last five years in Kaike "⁠KSCERATO⁠" Cerato and Yuri "⁠yuurih⁠" Santos, but so far that has come in vain.

The shadow of SK has loomed large over the new generation. Some trophies have come, but only online and the style that made Andrei "⁠arT⁠" Piovezan and FURIA famous has been scrapped as they try to conform to the international meta.

AWPers have come and gone, none able to replicate Henrique "⁠HEN1⁠" Teles's performances in the online era, and even as KSCERATO took his form to the next level, being called the "best rifler" of 2023 so far by Alex "⁠Mauisnake⁠" Ellenberg, results have not come to match.

The solution, at least in the eyes of FURIA's management, has come by looking to that old SK side. Brazil, ever since the prime of that side, has had an AWPing problem. FURIA have tried arT, Paytyn "⁠junior⁠" Johnson, and Rafael "⁠saffee⁠" Costa in the role but none have matched online HEN1 — even HEN1 himself. The next generation of AWPers have also struggled; none of Lucas "⁠nqz⁠" Soares, Santino "⁠try⁠" Rigal and Romeu "⁠zevy⁠" Rocco have flattered themselves too much against the best teams in the world just yet.

With arT's in-game leadership under question too, turning to Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo felt inevitable. At his best, he can solve both problems. Individually, his output has actually been better than saffee's this year. As a leader, he can help FURIA shift to a more on-meta style and let arT focus on his own gameplay.

It is no slam dunk; it is well known that FalleN has his eyes on several business ventures, which could expend some energy that would otherwise go into the team. An eye-watering $700,000 price tag also adds risk to the deal. But in theory it does make sense for FURIA based on the lack of Brazilian options in both the IGL and AWPer pool.

The second part of FURIA's business this off-season is less logical in terms of a one-to-one replacement. André "⁠drop⁠" Abreu was the water-carrier for the team, taking all of the bad roles. He would lurk passively in some defaults, entry in others, as well as having to anchor some of the lowest-action spots in the game. It is harder to find a player less set up for success than drop was in FURIA. Marcelo "⁠chelo⁠" Cespedes is not that player, which suggests more changes to FURIA's system.

A key factor is how long of a leash FalleN will place on arT on either side of the map; many of FURIA's CT sides at the moment are hard to identify positions simply because of how much he roams. KSCERATO has allowed that style to work by becoming the most over-powered anchor a team could have, but his role is not one that should change — meaning arT, yuurih and chelo will have to share the water left in drop's wake.

On T side chelo was often in the pack for Imperial which also presents an issue. There are multiple routes: chelo and arT could be the predominant pack, leaving yuurih as more of an aggressive lurk. There's also a chance arT could be that aggressive lurk, with a more measured on-meta pack of chelo, yuurih and FalleN. chelo could also be forced to replace drop one-for-one. We will have to wait and see, but the amount of role changes suggest some bedding in time will be necessary.

The good news is that chelo is clearly more individually skilled than drop, even once you account for differences in position or role. Support players have been removed for more talented players in the past successfully; it is just hard to see who will fill the gap in this particular lineup.

chelo himself might have to take it on the chin and replace drop one-for-one. He is most similar to arT and drop in trading statistics, suggesting he is more than comfortable as a bomb-site entry. He is more aggressive in opening duels than drop, though all of FURIA's players trend towards passive considering how many opening duels arT takes.

FalleN has already spoken about how "hard" it will be to mix his style with that of FURIA. Even with chelo, the squad might lack the firepower to compete with the very best international teams. FalleN's individual form will also be under scrutiny, whether there are better South American options or not.

As more and more of the world Counter-Strike scene switches to international, FURIA are investing big on their Brazilian brand. Signing FalleN is not just about in-game performance; we all know that. But once they opted to stick to a Brazilian line-up it is difficult to see where else they could have looked to.

arT's in-game leadership had to be taken from him after FURIA's T-side woes as of late. Rodrigo "⁠biguzera⁠" Bittencourt has led paiN well, but the fact that his side were also interested in FalleN speaks to his lack of long-term comfort in the position. The veteran is individually not far off the other Brazilian AWPers, so it is a move that just makes sense.

Keeping drop and having chelo replace arT might have even been a better fit as FURIA look to merge their style with the world at large. Instead they have kept him, plucking for firepower over role fits, which does make some sense if we assume FalleN will continue to operate around a 1.08 rating; this is a team that will require fragging from all four riflers to succeed.

It is not a move that guarantees trophies, but there were not any moves available that would. FalleN is still dancing, and it looks like Brazil will need him to do so for a good while yet.