Astralis have got their man, but can Staehr ignite their rebuild?

Nine months after rumors of Astralis' interest started circulating, Staehr is finally at his first Big Event with the Danish side.

Victor "⁠Staehr⁠" Staehr had been in Astralis's crosshairs for more than nine months. An aggressive rifler, he first took the scene by storm aged 18 with a 1.27 rating at IEM Cologne's play-in over seven maps in 2022 before helping Sprout qualify for the Rio Major.

Just one week after that RMR, the first report broke of Astralis' interest. Negotiations with the German organization, however, proved difficult. Instead, Astralis signed Christian "⁠Buzz⁠" Andersen as their Kristian "⁠k0nfig⁠" Wienecke replacement.

But their interest never cooled, even as Staehr's individual form did in 2023. In April, news broke that Staehr had signed a pre-contract agreement with Astralis slated for the start of 2024 as negotiations broke down once again.

"It was hard to play [in Sprout towards the end]. Everyone knew this team wouldn't be together after the break," Staehr told HLTV.org in Cologne. "We were just finishing our games and not really practicing in the last month. I still like the guys and we were still having fun but there was nothing to be hyped about because you knew it was over."

It was a sad end for a core of he, Laurențiu "⁠lauNX⁠" Țârlea, and Rasmus "⁠Zyphon⁠" Nordfoss that had showed promise in Rio's Major cycle. Come summer, Staehr got his move — Astralis finally agreed terms with Sprout for a buyout and he would don the iconic star on his chest six months before he was expected to.

Who Staehr would replace at Astralis was not immediately clear, even to the man himself. "I just knew they were interested and didn't know who would they switch," he said. Staehr, however, was assured that he would have his own positions.

Given his Sprout roles — the ones he was promised he could keep — conflicted with that of Lukas "⁠gla1ve⁠" Rossander and Benjamin "⁠blameF⁠" Bremer, these promises imply either that gla1ve's removal was planned or that he would move to anchor positions upon Staehr's arrival. The former seems more likely, especially after blameF's comments on the lack of role balance in Astralis since 2021.

The role clash was between not just blameF and gla1ve but all of Astralis — and were such an issue that blameF made it a priority as captain to ensure "that we didn't have all of the role clashes that we had the past couple of years." Staehr and Johannes "⁠b0RUP⁠" Borup were signed to fill gaps in the system, rather than requiring significant re-moulding.

This means that Staehr has been signed as a star — the secondary rifler star they have lacked since k0nfig's departure — and he knows it. "I think [blameF and device] believe in me [to take initiative] as much as they do in themselves. It feels like if I say something everyone believes 100%. There's nothing like 'device comes first' or something. The only thing that comes first is if there's some set rounds called by blameF but even then sometimes I can overcall that and he's perfectly fine with that. I know he trusts me."

Still, there will be fewer resources available to Staehr in Astralis than he had in Sprout. It is just an inevitable function of having Nicolai "⁠device⁠" Reedtz and blameF in his team, and for all the talk of freedom, Staehr has averaged just 12.2% opening kill attempts from his rotator CT spots so far compared to 25.0% in his Sprout tenure.

Another question about Astralis is how they have built their team. Their two star riflers, blameF and Staehr, are both in the pack. Buzz and b0RUP are more supportive lurkers and mid-round bombsite entry fraggers. This is an interesting choice in a meta in which star lurkers are thriving, the likes of Robin "⁠ropz⁠" Kool, Kaike "⁠KSCERATO⁠" Cerato and David "⁠frozen⁠" Čerňanský offering unparalleled consistency on the rifle.

For Staehr, this pack-heavy team distribution is a good thing. "It means it is not only about me killing. blameF can be set up on some maps, it doesn't only have to be one star rifler as it is in some teams. [This] of course takes some space off me, but that's fine because we play it together and we have plans together. I also don't have to call everything myself even if I like to take initiative."

The twin threat Staehr and blameF offer being backed up by device means it is a pack with, on paper, enough firepower to compete with the world's best. For that to happen, however, Staehr will need to individually step up and be the star he was signed to be. He currently sits at a 0.99 rating in Astralis and is clearly still getting up to speed with tier one and a new system.

The 19-year-old thinks this is largely "about getting used to each other and knowing how the others think. You can't learn how your teammates think in one or two weeks of practice — when you get that experience everyone will be on the same page." Astralis are in no rush. Staehr is a signing for the future despite the expectation that he can be their third star off the bat.

They have a clear seven-month runway to PGL Major Copenhagen to solve any issues that arrive in their rebuild, including Staehr's form. "The Copenhagen Major is of course the goal for Astralis. It's in Denmark, the first CS2 Major, it's going to be massive. So I think everyone from the team has this goal, and also the organization, right. There's a big motivation to get into that arena."

It's a fairly inexperienced arena side in truth — only device can claim to be used to the pressure associated with big stadium matches with blameF arriving to tier one just before the online era. blameF's fledgling system is being built game by game, one where "everyone says things in their spots and he calls out of that information." It is too early for Astralis to have a "philosophy", according to Staehr.

Given that we are into the international era of Counter-Strike, with multiple superteams assembled and stacked with individual talent, Astralis' system will need to keep developing before they can compete for titles. Like compatriots HEROIC have done, Astralis must hope that using their natural teamplay and cleaner communication by virtue of all being Danish will bridge the gap.

Early on, Staehr says that Astralis didn't set expectations, but they have "proven [they] can win against some good teams." The latest win against Apeks follows two wins over Liquid and one against Complexity. Those wins, and qualifying for BLAST Fall Finals in Copenhagen and the IEM Cologne group stage, are a good start.

This is not the old Astralis; internal and external expectations are clearly different. While they faltered, HEROIC accelerated past them to become Denmark's premier team. Whether Staehr and Astralis can bridge that chasm seems too big a task, but IEM Cologne will be their — and Staehr's — first proper test.

It generally takes about 100 days for a new lineup to reach their peak after making two roster moves. Teams can slowly improve over time, but it fairly rare that drastic reversals of fortune materialize.

After IEM Cologne, ESL Pro League Season 18, and BLAST Premier Fall Final, we should have quite an accurate barometer of the new Astralis — and of the part Staehr will play in it. His inconsistency early on may fade into irrelevance upon a marked improvement, or in hindsight emerge as a portent of a more significant slow start.

Staehr's star is rising, but he is not a fixture of the night sky just yet. In Astralis, we will see just how early his potential can be realized — the Danes will hope it can be soon.