Superteams collide as Cloud9 take on Vitality

A newly-constructed juggernaut does battle with a finely-honed machine: which will triumph?

IEM Cologne will bear witness to a clash between two superteams in the quarter-final. One in the midst of writing their legacy, the other hoping to begin their own in Germany.

Vitality’s grand plan to combine arguably the best player in the world with proven multi-time Major-winners took some time to bear fruit, but a few adjustments down the line and they are now well on track.

Cloud9 were the dominant force in the online era, but have not been able to recapture that form since LAN returned. After plenty of patience they finally bit the bullet and built a superteam by bringing on proven Major-winners Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov and Ilya "⁠Perfecto⁠" Zalutskiy from what was historically the premier Russian-speaking squad.

Coming into the marquee event in Cologne, both squads entered with a vast amount of expectation upon their shoulders. Vitality came into this season off the back of two big tournament wins, one of them the biggest of all: the final CS:GO Major, BLAST.tv Paris. Yes, they made a change in the off-season by bringing in Shahar "⁠flameZ⁠" Shushan for Peter "⁠dupreeh⁠" Rasmussen, but their form at the BLAST Fall Groups suggests that they did not need much time to embed their new man.

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Cloud9 found expectations placed upon them not because of their recent tournament performances, but because of the immense talent of the squad they have assembled. These were tempered somewhat by the initial absence of Sergey "⁠Ax1Le⁠" Rykhtorov, but his return for the playoffs have elevated them once again.

The two superteams are therefore clearly at very different points in their life cycles. Vitality are essentially a finished product, albeit one that just swapped out one of the most experienced players in the game for a hotly-touted youngster. Cloud9, by contrast, have just begun their new journey, and are basically an unknown quantity coming into their playoff run in Germany. As such, although both squads stepped up and made it out of their groups, they did it in different circumstances.

Vitality absolutely breezed through their first two group stage games to qualify for the arena, whilst Cloud9 had to fight tooth and nail after dropping to the lower bracket at the hands of fnatic. Of course this comes with the caveat that Cloud9 were forced to play with a stand-in through the group stage. Timur "⁠buster⁠" Tulepov stepped in for Ax1Le.

So what can we expect coming into this quarter-final? There is no data on the five-man lineup that Cloud9 will be bringing to bear against Vitality, and we haven’t seen Vitality’s current iteration take to the stage in a high-pressure playoff game.

Well, the first thing to expect is fireworks. Vitality have three players in the top ten highest-rated for the event, whilst Cloud9 only have Dmitry "⁠sh1ro⁠" Sokolov. Abay "⁠HObbit⁠" Khassenov isn’t too far behind, but on paper Cloud9 would have been struggling to match their European opposition for firepower, but that changes completely with Ax1Le returning.

If we take a step back and look at 2023 as a whole, the firepower now matches up nicely: sh1ro (1.26) and Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut’s (1.31) ratings are reasonably close, and even closer are the matchups of Ax1Le (1.17) vs Lotan "⁠Spinx⁠" Giladi (1.18) and HObbit (1.10) vs Emil "⁠Magisk⁠" Reif (1.10). You could argue Cloud9’s firepower maybe stretches a tad deeper, and that Vitality’s is a little stronger across the four that aren’t the in-game leader, but in any case the sheer amount of fragging power on the server promises a matchup filled with headshots and explosive moments.

But is it really fair to expect Cloud9 to match up to Vitality? Surely a squad that only changed one player and just won a Major will comfortably dispatch a team that just underwent a more significant rebuild?

Perhaps that is not the case. electroNic opined in an interview with HLTV that facing Vitality with flameZ on the roster rather than dupreeh was an easier prospect. "He's not as experienced as dupreeh, it's a bit tough for them to make the same things that they did with dupreeh." Some of the highlight-reel plays flameZ has racked up since joining Vitality would suggest otherwise, but maybe Cloud9 have spotted a chink in Vitality's armour that they can exploit.

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The weight of expectation is also important to consider. Vitality have proven their pedigree under pressure in recent history, both at IEM Rio and the BLAST Paris Major, and have an immense amount of experience amongst their number. Cloud9's previous iteration could confess to a tendency to collapse in the biggest moments on stage.

Now, however, Vitality are without a five-time Major winner in the form of dupreeh, and Cloud9 have added the cool heads of Perfecto and electroNic. Where previously Vitality would have had a gargantuan advantage in terms of experience, now the waters are not so clear; flameZ has precious little match time on Big Event stages, and no experience at all as the favourite, or at least as part of an elite team. He may have played well for his new team thus far, but there is no guarantee that will be the case right from the off in high-profile playoff matches.

The two obvious counter-points to this are obviously the fact flameZ has plenty of experience around him, and that Cloud9 have a history of struggling in the big moments.

flameZ has already spoken on the former point in reference to Vitality's loss Ninjas in Pyjamas at BLAST Fall Groups: "Everyone was communicating, putting a hand on my shoulder and saying, 'Look, this is how things are, you need to learn from them.'"

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You would also expect Cloud9's latest additions would address the team's prior tendency to falter when faced with the biggest hurdles, but that is not a given. Three of the five-man lineup that often struggled in playoffs are still on the roster, and when the pressure is on, memories of those former failures may end up creeping up on them from the back of their minds.

Cloud9 can surely claim an advantage in the fact there is precious little information out there for Vitality to work with in preparation. Whilst Vitality have also changed a player, it has been a fairly one-for-one swap between dupreeh and flameZ — at least on the attack.

Cloud9 have not only swapped out two players, but also changed their in-game leader, and so a more significant change in approach has occurred. Couple this with the fact the demos that are out there, Cloud9's group stage games, do not feature Ax1Le, and there isn't much to go on.

Vitality are not as clear a favorite as the bookmakers are suggesting, with the odds currently being offered sitting around 1.50 for Vitality and 2.50 for Cloud9. One would have to give them the edge based on the mountain of evidence in recent times that they are one of the best teams in the world, but the nebulous prospect they are facing in Cloud9 certainly levels the playing field.

There is no doubt that this matchup is a titanic clash, one that pits a superteam that has been honed after years of work with a freshly-constructed juggernaut. Vitality have already justified their superteam tag, even if it did take some time, whilst Cloud9 are only just embarking on the quest for greatness. The IEM Cologne trophy would add another chapter to one's legacy, or it would mark the opening pages of the other's. Either way, expect a brawl in their quarter-final bout.