IEM6 GC Kiev preview

It's been well over a month since the last big tournament and with all top teams taking a break for the holidays, IEM6 Global Challenge Kiev looks to open up 2012 with a set of new tricks from all the old dogs.

Besides just the $40,000 in prize money offered by ESL at season six's last Global Challenge featuring Counter-Strike, there is a lot more at stake at CyberSports ARENA - two more spots for the IEM6 World Championship, as well as a possible qualification for the third team based on IEM's point ranking.

With four of the eight teams already qualified, even a 5-6th place could just be enough for Natus Vincere, Lions, DTS or Moscow Five to secure themselves a spot at CeBIT in early March. Last place here puts any of those teams out of the race for the spot, so every single win in the group stage really does matter.

Do you think 2012 will continue where the last year left off with SK Gaming and Natus Vincere as the favourites and practically all the other six teams right behind them? How will mousesports's new roster work out? Find out what HLTV.org's Tomi "lurppis" Kovanen thinks below. WinFakt's preview is written by Chris "GoMeZ" Orfanellis.

Group A

SK Gaming (Delpan, f0rest, face, GeT_RiGhT, RobbaN)
Lets face it, SK Gaming has the highest chance of beating everyone at this tournament - except for Natus Vincere, who have had their numbers at both SEC and DreamHack and taken the Swedes out at a disappointing 5-8th place before falling against someone else themselves. Overall you have to assume SK Gaming will make it out of this group and likely make the finals, because I think they have a fairly big advantage over both Lions despite their online loss and also DTS, who are using Dimitri "hooch" Bogdanov as a stand-in.

Out of possible playoff scenarios I think a well practiced and clicking mousesports team could actually be the most dangerous opponent for Robert "RobbaN" Dahlström's troops in the semi-finals, but seeing as they probably will still suffer from some problems at their tournament, Moscow Five would probably make the game the closest, but I doubt they could beat them. I honestly don't see anyone but Yegor "markeloff" Markelov's team beating SK Gaming in Kiev, but I have been wrong before and the best of one group stage could be dangerous with a possibly three way.

SK Gaming are favourites despite a WCG final loss last month

Natus Vincere (ceh9, Edward, markeloff, starix, Zeus)
Natus Vincere originally failed to qualify for the event after losses against mousesports and SK Gaming forced them to face Anexis in the 7th place decider, which they managed to win. The decider was held in case a second team were to drop out, and luckily for the Ukrainian power house, no Asian team showed up and they got to go, giving them a last chance to qualify for the IEM6 World Championship after missing out on the first two Global Challenges.

They have been placed in an interesting group, as despite being the only team at the event and possibly in the world who I would call favourites in a head-to-head match against SK Gaming, they have suffered multiple losses against both DTS and Lions in the past. Add in the mix the fact they changed their in-game leader from Danilo "Zeus" Teslenko to Sergey "starix" Ischuk and you just don't know what to expect. I think they will advance from the group stage, but it could very well be after a three way tie and one loss to what many would consider a weaker team, despite losing best-of-three series against DTS and Lions at MSI Beat It Russia and DreamHack Winter.

Kiev will be the first test for native Sergey "starix" Ischuk who is Na`Vi's new in-game leader

DTS (ANGE1, hooch, kucher, pops, xaoc)
DTS solidified their spot among the world's ten best teams during 2011 but lost an important member of their team when Taras "craft1k" Voitenko chose to go inactive at the end of the year. The team is currently using former Virtus.pro player Dimitri "hooch" Bogdanov as a stand-in with his future on the team so far undecided, so it's tough to know what to expect from the Ukrainians whose claim to fame has been beating their fellow countrymen Natus Vincere in the past, even denying them a chance of defending their World Cyber Game gold medals.

In my opinion Kirill "ANGE1" Karasiow is the key to this team's success or failure in their home country later this week as he is not only the team's in-game leader, but also the biggest contributor in the fragging department. I believe they only have about a week to practice with their new roster but at the same time they are bootcamping which should help ease things out for them. I don't see them upsetting either SK Gaming or Natus Vincere in Kiev, but I can see them beating Lions for a 5-6th place at the event.

DTS stand-in Dimitri "hooch" Bogdanov looking to prove his worth

Lions (FYRR73, kHRYSTAL, nikolaus, threat, zneel)
The team led by Björn "threat" Pers is somewhat of a question mark to me as they often manage to upset teams one wouldn't necessarily expect them to beat, but still more often than not fall short of ending on the podium. Their best performance so far was at DreamHack Winter where Emil "FYRR73" Karlsson had so far the tournament of his life, something that reminded me of Richard "Xizt" Landström's explosive debut in the fnatic jersey which he has yet to reproduce.

I don't think they will be able to beat SK Gaming, but they have been strong in practice, put in a lot of hours and have a history of beating both DTS and Natus Vincere. I would expect them to go out at 1-2 but wouldn't be surprised if they beat Na`Vi. Unfortunately for them, that still wouldn't put them in the clear as it could easily go down to a three way tie, where the score in the match against their fellow countrymen can make a really big difference.

A lot rides on Emil "FYRR73" Karlsson for his Lions to do well

Group B

fnatic (cArn, Friis, Gux, pita, Xizt)
After painful two thirds of the year for one of eSports' most storied organizations' CS teams, fnatic is back on top and have multiple good results to show for it in the past. They most recently won DreamHack Winter to close out 2011 and have had the numbers of each of their opponents ever since adding Michael "Friis" Jorgensen on the team in September. They also managed to beat Natus Vincere a couple of times, even in a best-of-three format.

I think fnatic are favorites in each of their three matchups in group B and should be able to escape with two wins. As weird as it sounds, they could also lose each of their matchups, so this group really could end either way for them. One thing is for sure, if the past is any indication, they should do anything they can to avoid meeting SK Gaming in the semi-finals. That, or Landström would have to have a series like he did a year ago against the Ukrainians in Kiev, and many others things would have to go right.

Can Richard "Xizt" Landström repeat his breakout performance in Kiev?

Moscow Five (Dosia, ed1k, Fox, ROMJkE, xek)
Moscow Five has really managed to bring Russian CS to the forefront possibly for the first time ever to really be able to compete with the creme of international CS. I don't put too much on their MSI Beat It Russia win as it was propelled by their de_forge performances, something I don't expect them to play here especially after the map was altered. Prior to DreamHack I would have taken them as a slim favourite over fnatic, but with the devastating group stage loss I have to give fnatic the edge now. Both WinFakt and mousesports are underdogs against M5, but neither is an easy win.

Much like fnatic, Moscow Five has a potential terrible matchup looming ahead of them in the semi-final as they have had no success against Natus Vincere whatsoever, despite coming close multiple times. I don't see them beating SK Gaming either, but if either Lions or DTS made it out of group stage and met M5 in the semi-finals, I would have to give the Russians an edge over either one to make finals.

Mihail "Dosia" Stolyarov needs to be in good shape for M5 to advance

WinFakt (allu, aslak, BASiC, H^N, lurppis) - Preview written by Chris "GoMeZ" Orfanellis
WinFakt have recently undergone yet another lineup change bringing in Aleksi "allu" Jalli and Hannu "H^N" Pohjalainen for the more tournament experienced pair of Niko "naSu" Kovanen and Jirka "jigetus" Ryhti which makes predicting their performance a much harder job. If the two newcomers playing against some of the best teams in the world are able to play to the same standard they do in their domestic competitions, WinFakt will have a chance at beating all of the teams. In the last six months these four teams have met each other more times to count, with most of the encounters going back and forth with all teams posting wins against each other. With the new lineup changes to both WinFakt and Mousesports it will be hard to predict who will beat who this time. Also factor in fnatic and Moscow Five who will be walking into these matches semi-blind against the new lineups.

WinFakt's progression in the tournament will come down to a few factors. In order to progress they will need to take their chances. With two of the four teams featuring new lineups, i can see many rounds coming down to individual play and WinFakt will need to win as many as possible in order to get out of groups. Also don't underestimate fnatic's weakness in the best-of-one format. I can see WinFakt defeating both Moscow Five and fnatic depending on the maps, but will fall short to the German squad of Mousesports. WinFakt to place tied for second with fnatic and possibly Moscow Five as well.

After Timi "aslak" Verkkoperä broke out internationally, can the two rookies Aleksi "allu" Jalli and Hannu "H^N" Pohjalainen do the same in Kiev?

mousesports (gob b, karrigan, roman, zonic, zonixx)
After adding Danny "zonic" Sorensen on the roster last month, mousesports has been one of the most hyped up teams by the fans. Their first appearance together was the online qualifier for the event where losses against Moscow Five, fnatic and WinFakt (who are all ironically in their group) knocked them out, but due to Evil Geniuses dropping out they received a backup spot regardless.

On paper their roster change was undoubtedly an improvement but all teams led by Fatih "gob b" Dayik have always been very reliant on great teamplay and strategies which is something where the language barrier of Sorensen will for sure still be an issue this early on. I still mouz has close to a 50-50 shot in winning each of their games and if they were to advance, could beat anyone in a best-of-three. I do think there are enough chances where things will go wrong though that if they do make it out of group stage (where I have to favor other teams), they won't break top three.

Kiev will be Danny "zonic" Sorensen's first test with the Germans of mousesports

Do you agree or disagree with the predictions? Who do you think will make it out of the group stage, qualify for the IEM6 World Championship or win the last IEM6 Global Challenge? Leave a comment below with your thoughts!

You can once again play the HLTV.org Dreamteam game where you will be able to build a fantasy team for the event and compete for various prizes offered by our sponsors. Dreamteam will be made available shortly and viewers guide should be up later today.