Copenhagen Games day 2 preview

With the initial group stage and the opening round of upper bracket over at Copenhagen Games 2012, it's time to take a look at the matchups possibly looming ahead in the playoffs.

The usual suspects all have made it through in the upper bracket where eight teams remain fighting in the best-of-three format while the rest are trying to claw their way back in to the tournament via the lower bracket's best-of-one system.

As it is a little too early to talk about top teams' forms just yet as hardly any of them have been tested by other competitors, this preview will instead focus on a select few teams' possible routes in the bracket and predicted final placing.

Natus Vincere (ceh9, Edward, markeloff, starix, Zeus)

So far Na`Vi has looked just as you'd expect them to in Copenhagen. They had a couple of easy wins in the group stage despite of dropping thirteen rounds against semXorah and then took down Anexis in the first round of upper bracket. Na`Vi has often struggled with Anexis and this time was no different, but pulled back on both maps and came out with a 2-0 win. Next up will be WinFakt who have so far looked less than stellar and assuming the biggest upset of this tournament won't happen, the Ukrainians should be able to beat, most likely in two maps.

That is where it gets interesting as Na`Vi will face SK Gaming in the upper bracket semi-finals. That should be a great matchup especially considering the fact it's a best-of-three. However, I do think the team built by Sergey "starix" Ischuk is currently stronger of the two and should be able to come out with a win. This could of course go the other way as well depending on what kind of form each team shows up with, so should Na`Vi drop down to the lower bracket instead of SK, things could actually get interesting. In the lower bracket semi-finals they would most likely face fnatic, followed up by Lemondogs. I expect them to win both games 4/5 times, but seeing as it's best-of-one, you can't count either one of those teams out.

If Na`Vi beats SK, they will face ESC Gaming in the upper bracket final, in a match that will more than likely decide the eventual winners of Copenhagen Games 2012. It could easily go either way but I do like Na`Vi's chances in that match up as well, so if I have to predict a placing, I would put my money on the Ukrainians to win the event. 

Predicted final placing: 1st

Na´Vi in the match against Brazilian semXorah 

ESC Gaming (kuben, Loord, neo, pasha, TaZ)

ESC Gaming are currently the world's number one Counter-Strike team, simple as that. They won World Cyber Games to close out 2011 when they were the team of the year, and opened up 2012 with a victory in Hannover at the IEM6 World Championship. Normally I would expect the Poles to have some trouble with motivation for a less prestigious event after a major title, but the fact they have two titles in a row will give them such a confidence boost that I don't think that will matter much. So far ESC has seemed solid overall and they haven't had much trouble making their way to the upper bracket quarter-finals where they will face fnatic in the morning.

Although fans seem to hold the new fnatic roster in high regard while blindly staring at Finn "karrigan" Andersen's stats column, unless fnatic is hot individually and ESC doesn't play well, I don't see the Swede-Dane mixture causing much trouble to the red hot Poles. ESC Gaming has an incredibly consistent playing style with arguably the least amount of skill out of the top three teams, and even though they could have some trouble with certain fnatic players in that department, I think their perfect teamplay and great mid round play will prove to be too much, not only for fnatic but for most other taems as well.

Currently I think they are a level slightly above SK's while also holding a permanent residency card to the Swedes' heads. I think Na`Vi will overcome them this time, but should the Ukrainians lose against SK instead, it would make ESC favorites to win this tournament instead. After a loss to Na`Vi, ESC would go on to face either SK or Lemondogs (most likely) in the lower bracket, and regardless of the best-of-one format, I expect them to make finals as they are one of the top two teams in Copenhagen.

Predicted final placing: 2nd

NEO in ESC's opening match at Copenhagen Games 

SK Gaming (face, f0rest, GeT_RiGhT, RobbaN, trace)

Despite of people in comments suggesting I have something against SK Gaming, I actually think they are the third best team in the world right now for clear limitations their lineup faces. They have more skill than ESC and Na`Vi, but in a long best-of-three series at a tiring tournament, the longer the matches go the less individual skill matters in deciding the outcome of a game. Add on that the fact overall SK are a counter-terrorist sided team, which is a disadvantage because the terrorist sides are generally better to be strong on, and you should see the big picture. According to Timm "ArcadioN" Henriksen in his interview with HLTV.org Martin "trace" Heldt still has trouble communicating with rest of SK which could also prove catastrophic in close matches.

I do think SK Gaming are the third best team in Copenhagen and they are clearly capable of taking down the before mentioned two teams as well, but I don't think they will. With that being said, I expect them to plow through the rest of the competition regardless of their overtime win against Last Kings. After a Na`Vi loss, they will most likely face fnatic in the lower bracket. Although Patrik "cArn" Sättermon and Harley "dsn" Örwall are no longer part of that team, the few members who have been on the losing end of the 2011 matchup must still remember the outcome of all those matchups.

I fully expect SK Gaming to take down fnatic without much trouble because while both teams lack strategically, SK Gaming simply outmatches fnatic in their supposed strength, individual skill, easily. After that Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg and company have a chance to set the record straight against Lemondogs and show the IEM6 World Championhip third place decider's last two maps were a fluke. I think the best-of-one format favors SK Gaming over ESC and Na`Vi in the possible consolidation final so the Swedes could potentially exceed my expectations, but I think they will right the wrong from Hannover here and have to settle for third.

Predicted final placing: 3rd

SK Gaming at Copenhagen Games 

fnatic (Friis, Gux, karrigan, MODDII, Xizt)

Now that the dust has finally settled on Patrik "cArn" Sättermon's retirement from Counter-Strike, it's time for fnatic to face the music and find out how the addition of Finn "karrigan" Andersen is really going to work out. Newly appointed in-game leader Richard "Xizt" Landström seemed confident in an interview going by their online practice results, but also mentioned they have always succeeded on that front. We haven't really seen anything new from fnatic since my actual preview for this tournament, as they have yet to face anyone even remotely close to their level, so we don't actually have much to go on here.

Andreas "MODDII" Fridh had possibly his worst tournament ever in Hannover last month and is surely eager to prove he was the right choice for fnatic, so he will probably be better near home. fnatic has so far secured clear wins over their opposition, but that should come to a quick end with their match up against ESC Gaming this morning. I don't think fnatic can compete with ESC unless all five of their players are playing extremely well, because ESC has them beat strategically, chemistry and teamplay wise and their best player also happens to be better than anyone on fnatic, thus canceling out the individual skill factor almost completely unless multiple Swedes and Danes go off in this match. 

After an expected loss versus ESC Gaming, fnatic will drop down to lower bracket to face Anexis. This will be an interesting match that could go either way in best-of-one as Anexis has less skill but is stronger strategically. Should fnatic win, they will play Alternate in another possible upset match. Regardless of how that goes their tournament should come to an end in the next round when they are expected to face SK Gaming, or Natus Vincere. Best-of-one fits fnatic's new team well against said teams, but I wouldn't count on it.

Predicted final placing: 5-6th

new fnatic lineup led by Xizt in action 

Lemondogs (FYRR73, kHRYSTAL, niko, threat, zneel)

In our video interview with the team's captain, Björn "threat" Pers mentioned he considers Lemondogs to be the fourth best team right now, which is a statement that is easy to agree with right now, but we'll see if it still holds true on Sunday morning. The Swedes will face Alternate in the upper bracket quarter finals and as Pers said, they were slightly lucky with the draw at least on paper. I think they won't have an easy win over Alternate as some might think, but I don't see them dropping a map and they should win in the end, regardless of the score. They have beaten ESC before at DreamHack Winter last year and ESC's form is always a questionmark outside of major events, but while Lemondogs will probably give the Poles a run for their money, they will likely fall short.

After a loss to ESC, Lemondogs will drop to lower bracket and face the winner of WinFakt and Xapso. Either one could pose a threat in a single map, but you still have to assume Pers' squad are the overwhelming favorites in either matchup. Assuming they win that battle, they will most likely face SK Gaming once again, and although it's just a best-of-one match this time, a win here could begin their climb towards a higher placing in the Counter-Strike hierarchy. Should SK stay in the upper bracket however, Lemondogs could also face Natus Vincere or even fnatic, with the latter being the only one I would consider them favorites against, assuming they have worked over some mental stuff. They could cause more upsets in the lower bracket, but realistically, without a DreamHack Winter type performance from Emil "FYRR73" Karlsson, Lemondogs will likely end up fourth.

Predicted final placing: 4th

Lemondogs sporting their new shirts 

WinFakt (allu, aslak, BASiC, dRiim, H^N)

No one really knows what to expect from WinFakt in absence of their in-game leader, but that hasn't boded well for the Finns so far. They've had a couple of close calls against much weaker opposition, but then again none of the matches so far have been very meaningful. I don't think they can beat Natus Vincere regardless of what happens in that match as they simply don't have enough depth to really go face to face with the best team of 2010. So far Kimmo "BASiC" Fagerholm's individual play has plummeted from his usual level after becoming a temporary in-game leader for this event, but other than that it's hard to say much seeing as they haven't had much real opposition yet.

WinFakt had a solid amount of practice and high STEAM hours going into this event, and that will be put to the test in the lower bracket where the best-of-one format will play a major factor in deciding how the Finns do. Following a Na`Vi loss, they should face their countrymen MoD-eSport in the lower bracket's first test to them. Assuming they can come up with an expected win there, they will face Xapso, featuring the group stage's number one player according to stats, Morten "coloN" Johansen and his crew. I think that will be a tough match and will require good individual play across the board from WinFakt as Timm "ArcadioN" Henriksen's team will be better prepared strategically. It could go either way and should Miikka "dRiim" Toroi's help be enough for a win, WinFakt could even take a shot at Lemondogs in a best-of-one. However, in their current form, I think Xapso are favorites to take them out at 7-8th place.

Predicted final placing: 7-8th

WinFakt will be facing Na`Vi next 

Anexis (BERRY, Nuggi, Snappi, SFM, zE-)

I think the best way to sum up Anexis based on the team's history under the organization would be this: they're a very good team for about 24 rounds per map. Unfortunately for them, the six rounds they need the most are the ones they always seem to falter on. They had a chance against Lemondogs but threw it away, followed up by two straight map losses against Natus Vincere from a 14-12 lead and a 11-11 tie. Whether it's a lack of confidence, too much pressure or something else is beyond the point, as it has happened so many times over the last who-knows-how-many events that it just seems to be a trait of this team.

You can't go as far as Morten "coloN" Johansen did however and he shouldn't have either, seeing as the guys from Anexis have successfully beaten the likes of Na`Vi and fnatic before, something the young Danish gun has yet to do. When Anexis plays well they can beat anyone in a best-of-one format which is good news for them because they won't be playing any more best-of-threes at this year's Copenhagen Games. Realistically I expect them to pick up two wins in the lower bracket against semXorah and BOOOM, but you can't really predict them to take down fnatic in the following round. This is another time Danny "BERRY" Krüger & co could ruin the black and orange team's tourney given the one map played fits them, but while I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen, I don't think it will.

Predicted final placing: 9-12th

BERRY's team needs to step up to stay alive 

Xapso (ArcadioN, coloN, turkizh, zanoj, Xyp9x)

Xapso has so far done what people would expect them to, with the exception of Morten "coloN" Johansen who has performed above expectations. In an interview with HLTV.org, Timm "ArcadioN" Henriksen said he expects them to put up a fight against SK Gaming while Johansen chimed in with information about their practice results. I don't agree with PTT having great aimers (not to say their players are bad) or that their matches were walkovers as MoD had a fairly good game against them on de_tuscan, so while the Danes are clearly confident going into the next day and they might even believe it, it's not really rightfully earned.

Xapso should not be able to take down SK Gaming regardless of their form because they simply have far too much skill for Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund's squad to repeat the Full Gaming fiasco from late 2010. A loss would put them up against Last Kings who they should take down. That's where things can get interesting, as they will most likely face WinFakt who haven't so far impressed. Since the lower bracket is best-of-one some matches become very hard to predict, but I think Xapso has a good chance at taking down WinFakt unless they've improved for day two. A win would put them up against Lemondogs who I figure they should not be able to beat, but if they take down WinFakt they might just be able to ride that momentum to a fourth place finish, although I doubt it.

Predicted final placing: 5-6th

The man behind Xapso watching his former teammate trace play 

Alternate (approx, Kapio, Tixo, Troubley, Roman R.)

Alternate hasn't made much noise so far in the tournament, but they are still undefeated regardless of giving up double digit rounds on two occasions. They had the easiest group in the tournament which won't give much of an indication of their current level, and then faced Last Kings in the opening round of upper bracket. Last Kings were at least to me complete unknowns prior to yesterday but their overtime match against SK Gaming put them on the map. They had some success on de_inferno against the Germans as well, but so far Navid "Kapio" Javadi's team has prevailed without failure.

Their match up against Lemondogs is kind of weird as these teams haven't ever met before to my knowledge, but I don't see Alternate coming out with an upset in the best-of-three format. Luckily for them, the lower bracket's best-of-one format suits them a lot better, and they have a solid chance at causing an upset there after taking down PTT first, which shouldn't cause much trouble. They will meet fnatic in a match up where I predict them to go out at 7-8th place, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the Germans pulled some rabbits out of their hat and took down the Swedish-Danish mix no longer sporting the leadership of Patrik "cArn" Sättermon. They did it at ESWC and I think they're better now, whereas fnatic has more skill but less teamplay and leadership.

Predicted final placing: 7-8th

Tixo has played well so far 

Copenhagen Wolves (KK, MJE, Morf4r, Paddy, whimp)

Despite of some less than truthful answers in an interview by HLTV.org where KK and MJE stated the Wolves' actually prepared for this event, it's clear they're in town to meet up with some old friends and get a little taste of the old competition all of them surely must be missing. The years away haven't been easy for the Danes and you can tell they're simply outmatched here. After placing third in their initial group they have dropped directly into the lower bracket, where they should pick up two wins but I doubt they can match MoD-eSport who are actually active and have prepared for this event. A loss to the Finns would put them out on 13-16th place, which will be a little less than glamorous final touch to the careers of a couple of Denmark's greatest players.

 Predicted final placing: 13-16th

Former mTw and The Titans duos playing 

MoD-eSport (jonkkis, Metaphor, mkzz, tomsku, zehN)

I expected MoD-eSport to play better early on in the tournament, simple as that. They were ran over by Xapso in the first map before I could even join the HLTV, but some clutch individual play kept them in-game towards the end of map two on de_tuscan. Their first round lower bracket match shold be easy, as I expect the following Copenhagen Wolves match to be. Unfortunately after that they will more than likely be paired up with WinFakt who, despite not looking good so far, should be able to take out their countrymen and advance further into the lower bracket. If MoD ever had a spot to make a statement though, it would be against fellow Finns in best-of-one format and after the close LanTrek final two and a half months ago, Janne "Metaphor" Halinen's team could, but most likely won't, do it.

Predicted final placing: 9-12th

Metaphor's team is still in the race

Who do you think will stand on the highest podium by the end of tomorrow? Who will fall short and who will exceed expectations? Leave a comment below!