DHW team introductions (4/4)

Here is the fourth and final installment of our DreamHack Winter team introduction series, featuring the three biggest favorites NiP, VeryGames and Astana Dragons.

Our first three parts in the team introduction series were released over the last two days and featured eleven of the already known fourteen participants in the $250,000 tournament.

First part featuring Clan-Mystik, fnatic, Universal Soldiers and n!faculty is here. Part two focused on SK Gaming, LGB eSports and Recursive. Number three featured Cph Wolves, iBUYPOWER, coL and Na`Vi.

Now we're down to just the biggest favorites to lift the $100,000 first place check on Saturday evening. Continue reading to find out about the world's three best Counter-Strike teams.

Will one of these three prevail on the year's biggest stage?

Ninjas in Pyjamas

Up until September 29th when NiP for the first time lost a series to VeryGames, even if it was an online match Robin "Fifflaren" Johansson stated NiP had little motivation to win, the Swedes had been the most dominant team in the history of all Counter-Strike versions. Back then I tweeted suggesting the win could have huge ramifications for the rivalry which had been nothing but one-sided up until then, with NiP having beaten VeryGames fifteen straight times. CS:GO was never the same for the Ninjas after that lazy Sunday in September.

NiP are still the world's second best team, and are heavy favorites to reach the grand final in Jönköping as poor seeding standards might not even pit them up against Astana Dragons in the semi-finals, but talk about a change no one in the world could have predicted in going from the clear cut most dominant team ever to having to hope not to face VeryGames before the grand final in tournaments, all just in time for the biggest tournament in the history of the game franchise. NiP should still make the grand final, and the new Valve-imposed map rotation favors them slightly, but it must be killing them that the rivalry has turned upside down at this very moment.

Player:	Rating:
Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg	1.31
Robin "Fifflaren" Johansson	1.01
Adam "friberg" Friberg	1.14
Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund	1.37
Richard "Xizt" Landström	1.16

One of the main factors in NiP's recent struggles has been the huge climb in the level of play of VeryGames' two superstars, while arguably the best player in the world for the first year-plus of CS:GO, Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund, hasn't played up to his usual, incredibly high and impossible to judge anyone else on, level. His level of play has still been among top five in the world, aside from SLTV Finals where he had a somewhat poor statistical event, but for the player who has been a driving force in pulling NiP over the finish line, with performances such as the Virtus.pro de_nuke_se counter-terrorist side comeback in July's SLTV Finals, it's still a big dip.

Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg is NiP's second superstar, and while he has been doing his job, NiP could also use some more of the explosiveness he's been known for since being voted the best Counter-Strike player of the year in 2006. In-game leader Richard "Xizt" Landström likely hasn't re-invented the wheel in time for DreamHack which means the team will have to continue relying heavily on individual skill, and that puts tons of pressure not only on the two brightest stars, but also on Landström, who hasn't been playing at a level that would qualify him for a top ten player in the world since the Spring, and Adam "friberg" Friberg, whose entry-killing has been a key factor in NiP's success for a long time.

1st	DreamHack Bucharest	$7,000
3rd	SLTV StarSeries VII Finals	$2,000
2nd	RC EMS One Fall Finals	$7,000
4th	ESWC	-

This introduction may sound negative to some, but it's only because NiP has to be judged on the ridiculous standards they set for themselves in late 2012 and early 2013 by dominating everyone, including the 87-0 map record that was broken in early April. By anyone else's standards NiP are an incredible team, number two in the world, and one of the two clear favorites to lift the $100,000 check on Saturday night. But for the Swedes placing second, even with the $50,000 consolation prize, would be a huge disappointment and almost surely end up with the team changing their roster, as discussed on last night's [POD]Cast episode #18.

NiP has had a Swedish camera crew from TV6 following them basically since they started losing. On [POD]Cast we talked about the possibility of that affecting especially Alesund, and there's a chance that's the case. Setting them apart from their competition is also the fact they've dropped out of just about every other tournament in recent months, including online qualification stages for later LAN finals. That means they've had much more time to prepare for DreamHack, but it also puts much more pressure on them; working solely for this one event with no monetary gains from others means they must win DreamHack even more so than before, as they might have given up more than $50,000 in prize money just to focus more on it.

PTW: f0rest - I find it hard to imagine Alesund not putting up his usual close to 0.90 KPR and an all-green +/- row on his statistics sheet in Jönköping, but a vintage-f0rest performance, one along the lines of his Copenhagen Games trashing of fnatic or the legendary IEM III Global Finals movie could single handedly put NiP across the finish line as the winners. If Lindberg returned to a level that out of everyone in the world only he can reach and the rest of NiP chipped in, they would win DreamHack. He holds one set of keys to NiP's success, the other one is divided among the three role-players of the team.

f0rest is the true swing vote in NiP

VeryGames

VeryGames found the perfect time to peak. They became the best team in the world in mid-to-late-October, just six-to-four weeks prior to not only the biggest tournament of the year, but the biggest tournament in the history of Counter-Strike. Since then they've looked borderline untouchable, with a domestic loss against Clan-Mystik slightly tainting their resume. They are 6-1 against NiP in maps on LAN after DreamHack Bucharest, have beaten them in a series at all three of the most recent events they've both attended, and won three of their last four international events, with a second place at ESWC. We've talked about domestic competition in the past, and those losses have never been very important; it's simply much easier for domestic teams to upset their fellow countrymen than top teams from other countries.

For a team many expected to never overcome the mountain that was NiP after fifteen straight losses, the team led by Kévin "Ex6TenZ" Droolans really turned it all around in a magical fashion, using the newly gained confidence from an online win to boost to finally take down the Swedes on LAN, and then never looked back. Their star duo of Adil "ScreaM" Benrlitom and Richard "shox" Papillon have looked better than NiP's in the past two months, Nathan "NBK" Schmitt packs much more firepower than his NiP counter-part, whoever you consider that to be, and at the very least the final two players tie NiP individually, while the leadership of Droolans is light years ahead of not only NiP's, but everyone's in the scene as of today.

Player:	Rating:
Kévin "Ex6TenZ" Droolans	0.96
Nathan "NBK" Schmitt	1.14
Adil "ScreaM" Benrlitom	1.20
Richard "shox" Papillon	1.23
Edouard "SmithZz" Dubourdeaux	1.07

VeryGames look very much like a perfect team right now. They have as much firepower as you'd ever ask for, a need in CS:GO if you wish to win consistently, and they come with the best prepared strategies and very good leadership. The only knock you can have on them going into DreamHack is their decision to attend MSI Beat it! Grand Finals, which they managed to win fairly convincingly, and to remain in a bunch more online competitions than NiP, their main competition. I'm of the school of thought that thinks playing more matches, at least to a certain degree, is better for you, as matches are better practice than actual practice, but Schmitt was the first to point out in our video interview in Beijing that VeryGames aren't as prepared for DreamHack as they could have been, had they stayed home to practice instead.

With that being said, VeryGames are the best team in the world as of November 27th 2013, and have been for just about a month. Whether they remain up there on Sunday is another story, but right now they are the favorites to win the biggest prize of their careers. They have an advantage over NiP, and unlike the Swedes they haven't faced too much competition from other teams recently, whereas NiP has also had a lot of trouble with Astana Dragons. VeryGames are a lock to reach a grand final unless they face NiP earlier in the bracket, which I doubt can happen, and then it's going to be one great show of Counter-Strike to decide the biggest champion on the grandest stage of them all.

5-8th	DreamHack Bucharest	-
1st	SLTV StarSeries VII Finals	$7,500
1st	RC EMS One Fall Finals	$12,000
1st	ESWC France	800€
2nd	ESWC	$7,500
1st	MSI Beat it! Grand Finals	$10,000

Contrary to NiP's section, you just read four paragraphs of pure praise. That's because you can't pinpoint many problems in the French side. They've worked hard since Papillon was recruited in late spring and that work is paying off at the exact right time. Short of both of their superstars having poor events and Droolans making a ton of bad calls that no one else corrects, it's simply impossible to even imagine VeryGames not making the grand finals, or being favorites to win DreamHack Winter 2013. They seemingly have everything figured out from roles, strategies, playing styles and preparation. Everyone makes mistakes, and so will they in their campaign, but you can be sure they will bounce back better from them than most would.

The only negative on VeryGames going into DreamHack Winter is the map rotation Valve imposed on the community while agreeing to fund these massive prize pools. The Frenchmen do not like Valve's de_mirage, and their recent struggles on it in Beijing and online suggest NiP could gain a little advantage in their head-to-head series by playing that map. If the French still remove de_train they will have to play de_mirage, but even so they could easily win the other two maps. Regardless, it's one small knock on how the series may play out differently than it has in the past, simply because of the maps.

PTW: shox - Papillon has been the brightest star in VeryGames recently, overtaking the ridiculous aim of Benrlitom as the number one fan favorite in the squad with performances such as the one in the MSI Beat it! Grand Final versus fnatic, where he single handedly carried VeryGames across the finish line when the rest of the team struggled against fnatic. You can expect him to be one of the best players in Jönköping, and there's little to no reason to think he won't fulfill that role.

VeryGames hope to win the biggest event of 2013

Astana Dragons

There's a small questionmark hanging above Astana Dragons as a team due to their recent roster change that saw fan-favorite Ioann "Edward" Sukhariev replaced by former Virtus.pro member Emil "kucher" Akhundov. Most fans were clearly against the switch as Astana had been the world's third best team after their most recent performances and Sukhariev has quite the following backing him up, as well as stats and in-game performances, but Kirill "ANGE1" Karasiow seemed convinced the only way forward was with a fourth member of the CIS-squad who surprised everyone in early April by becoming the first team to defeat NiP on LAN.

Virtus.pro broke down in June due to Dauren "AdreN" Kystaubayev's departure to a Kazakhstani project, and the team was never the same again despite Ladislas "GuardiaN" Kovács' bigger talent, as communication issues prevented them from playing to their previous standards; though they still took down NiP one more time at the end of June at RC EMS One Summer Finals. Now Astana is practically the same team with one of the world's best players in Yegor "markeloff" Markelov replacing Stolyarov's older brother Sergey "Fox"; an upgrade in almost anyone's books.

Player:	Rating:
Dauren "AdreN" Kystaubayev	1.00
Kirill "ANGE1" Karasiow	1.04
Mihail "Dosia" Stolyarov	1.13
Emil "kucher" Akhundov	0.99
Yegor "markeloff" Markelov	1.07

Recent results have been promising for the Dragons who have scored a bunch of wins online since adding Akhundov, and overcame Universal Soldiers and Natus Vincere through the lower bracket, though without the usual one map disadvantage, at TECHLABS Cup Grand Finals in Moscow to win their first title with the Ukrainian onboard. They've kept steadily improving since the team was founded some months back, and had it not been for the roster change, I would expect them to be only better and better in time for DreamHack due to the length of their bootcamp leading up to the year's biggest event.

With that being said I do actually think Akhundov is a better fit for Astana Dragons. I'm simply not sure they will have enough time to properly integrate him in a way that will make them better as a team than they were with Sukhariev. Markelov should fit the mold of the departed Stolyarov and that will be key to their success at DreamHack. If the rest can revert back to a more Virtus.proish playing style, Markelov can easily adapt to Stolyarov's old roles and that can make the adjustment period much shorter, and give them much needed speed in getting into tip top shape by Friday, when the action kicks off for them in Jönköping.

3-4th	DreamHack Bucharest *	$1,500
2nd	SLTV StarSeries VII Finals *	$4,000
3rd	ESWC *	$5,000
1st	TECHLABS Cup Grand Finals	$10,000
	(* with Edward instead of kucher)

I expect Astana Dragons to make the semi-finals easily and I think they have a very, very real chance of beating NiP. If they face the Swedes in semis I'd even go as far as calling it a 50-50 due to the Kazakhstani backed teams two recent wins, although one was in the third place decider, despite the roster change. I think their style, or to be more specific the style of Karasiow's teams, fits NiP really well, and it's a great match-up for them. Same can't be said for VeryGames, who seem to have an upper hand on Astana Dragons, though it could also be simply a case of VG being a clearly stronger opponent than NiP in recent times. Regardless, Astana Dragons is a lock to reach the semi-finals.

PTW: Dosia - Stolyarov should be even better now than he's been in recent months, which already says quite a bit, as Sukhariev's departure should free up some of the roles he's always excelled in and prefers playing. The duo had a very similar playing style and it often ended with Stolyarov outside of his comfort zone, but now that Russia's best player is likely back to more things he enjoys doing, you should expect an even better than usual performance from the player that became one of the world's five best individually, arguably, at the end of Counter-Strike 1.6.

Dosia rose to international stardom in 2011

This wraps up our DreamHack Winter team introductions series. Coming up next will be our official previews for the groups of the event, set to take place on Thursday and Friday this week.