DHW preview: groups A & B

After four team introduction articles covering each of the fourteen known participants, it's time for our official preview for groups A and B at DreamHack.

DreamHack uses an odd system where quarter-finals for the first two groups are played out prior to the second two groups even starting, so we're adjusting our usual preview format.

This time we're going to have two different previews for the first two days of DreamHack Winter 2013, each focusing on the next day's group stage and its following quarter-finals, and then a third preview for the finals day.

If you've missed some of the introduction articles, below are links for the four installments we've released over the course of the past three days, covering all of the teams mentioned below:

Part 1/4 - Clan-Mystik, n!faculty, fnatic, Universal Soldiers

Part 2/4 - SK Gaming, Recursive eSports, LGB eSports

Part 3/4 - Cph Wolves, Natus Vincere, compLexity, iBUYPOWER

Part 4/4 - VeryGames, NiP, Astana Dragons

It's worth noting for our newer readers that the predictions at the end of each group/match are merely somewhat educated guesses for the fun of it and should not be taken too seriously.

fnatic's renewed lineup is coming off of MSI Beat it 2nd place finish

Group A ( fnatic, Clan-Mystik, Natus Vincere, LGB eSports)

This group has three teams that are the most even out of all the groups at DreamHack Winter. Virtually any two of the trio between Natus Vincere, Clan-Mystik and fnatic could advance, in any given order. To make matters more interesting, LGB eSports are no pushovers themselves, and have in the past defeated Natus Vincere on LAN at TECHLABS Cup Minsk. fnatic are fresh off a confidence building second place finish at MSI Beat it! Grand Finals in Beijing, but lack serious practice time due to the recent addition of Markus "pronax" Wallsten, who took over the in-game leader position that was previously held by three different members of the team in a five month span.

Clan-Mystik are arguably the most interesting team to watch in the group stage out of anyone at DreamHack, simply because they're still, even after winning ESWC out of nowhere, such an unknown to most of us. It's impossible to put a finger down on the Frenchmen who I could see either winning the group, securing a favorable bracket and going as far as to finish in fourth place, or even upset Astana Dragons for a third place finish, or whom I could just as likely see going 0-2 in the group stage and falling back to no man's land in the world rankings. The squad of Dan "apEX" Madesclaire have potential, and if they wish to be taken seriously by the world, they will have to do well this week.

Natus Vincere are a solid team, reasonably ranked somewhere between the fourth and eighth spot in world rankings. They've scored wins over very good teams, but they've also showed inconsistency in recent play, especially since the nineteen year-old Denis "seized" Kostin took over the in-game leader position on the team from Danylo "Zeus" Teslenko. The biggest knock on Na`Vi is their lack of firepower compared to some of the other teams in the tournament, so the likes of Sergey "starix" Ischuk will have to have some good games for Na`Vi to proceed through to the playoffs from group A; if all five of them have mediocre events, the Ukrainians are toast.

Finally we have LGB eSports, who have been fairly inconsistent themselves, but who definitely hold some decent potential for upsets in the best-of-one stage of the tournament. I don't think they will do too well in Jönköping for reasons named in the team introduction article, and luckily DreamHack is using the GSL-style double elimination group stage which will stop a single upset from messing an entire group up through an ugly three-way-trie, so their impact on the tournament will likely remain small.

Prediction: 1. Clan-Mystik, 2. Natus Vincere

KIOSHIMA to lead Clan-Mystik to first place of their group, again

Group B ( NiP, iBUYPOWER, Recursive, Universal Soldiers)

The second group of Thursday isn't completely unlike group A in the sense that it includes three fairly equal teams in iBUYPOWER, Universal Soldiers and Recursive eSports. However, Recursive are proportionally weaker in the trio than anyone out of group A's three teams, and NiP, the fourth team in group B, are the sure lock to advance from the group, whereas in group A the fourth team was the weakest of the bunch. Regardless, the second group should have plenty of action with NiP likely going through in first place, and the American and Polish sides fighting for a second playoff spot.

NiP are the second best team in the world, have two of the world's best four players on an individual level, are fresh off the strongest year long period in any Counter-Strike version's history, and there is no reason to think they will realistically not make it though this group. That is not to say it couldn't ever happen, as they were one extremely lucky one-on-three defuse by in-game leader Richard "Xizt" Landström away from being eliminated in the group stage of DreamHack Winter, but if it did it'd be such a huge upset you couldn't ever predict it based on anything but a hunch.

iBUYPOWER are to me the most interesting team in this group. As usual the squad built around the former Curse core are doing very well in their own continent as they've defeated compLexity twice in a best-of-three series, and the addition of Sam "DaZeD" Marine should help the team do much better on LAN than they've done in the past. It's still a question mark whether or not the rest o this team can deliver on LAN internationally; the Curse squad who struggled in Europe put in some close games with NiP on American soil, but it's not the same thing as all the pressure of DreamHack and its $250,000 prize purse. For the Americans the stakes are even higher due to their new sponsorship deal with computer giant iBUYPOWER, and the fact a second place finish in the group could net them an impressive fourth place finish due to a lucky bracket draw.

Universal Soldiers, featuring a young in-game leader in Janusz "snax" Pogorzelski, have gotten back on the track the ESC core was on in late 2012 and even early on in 2013 before their struggles began. They scored a 3-4th place finish in Cologne a month ago, and although they've been as inconsistent online as the Poles have been through times, they've looked pretty good overall and the track record of its ESC trio speaks highly of their odds for a surprise performance in a true major tournament; something Wiktor "TaZ" Wojtas loudly longed for much earlier in 2013. They are favorites to go through in second place and could go on to face as highly as third due to their bracket draw. Despite their advantage over iBP, I'm predicting an upset in this group.

Prediction: 1. NiP, 2. iBUYPOWER

One year after his international debut Skadoodle will try to do better at DH Winter

Quarter-finals (A1 vs. B2, B1 vs. A2)

First quarter-final will net the winner of group A against the second place finisher in group B.

That makes the match-up extremely tough to predict as three different teams could very likely finish on top of the group A, and the second place finisher in group B is by no means decided. To talk a little about the match-up, let's just say this is going to be by far the the most even quarter-final of the four, assuming NiP doesn't get upset. This is the only quarter-final that won't feature any of the world's best three teams, so anyone sneaking in here has a real chance of getting lucky and finishing in the top four; in other quarter-finals you could theoretically be the world's fourth best team, but without being one of the top three teams, a very unlikely feat at DreamHack, you won't be ranked or paid as one.

I actually think out of all the possible match-ups in the first quarter-finals, Clan-Mystik probably have the best chance of making top four. I didn't have as much faith in them during our predictions in [POD]Cast episode #18 yesterday, but come to think of all these teams in a best- of-three setting, with the leadership of both Universal Soldiers and Natus Vincere being on the shoulders of younger players, I actually think the Frenchmen can prevail. I also think fnatic would have a good chance in a best-of-three series, potentially better than a best-of-one due to a slight advantage in leadership, but since I predicted they'd go out in group A, that possibility will be ignored here. I frankly don't know how I talked myself into thinking Clan-Mystik will make top four at DreamHack Winter, but that's the case anyways, though I think iBUYPOWER has a very good chance of upsetting them due to being a more unknown team to them, if the Americans go through group B.

The second quarter-final of day one won't be nearly as interesting. I have a hard time imagining any of their potential opponents putting up a real fight against NiP in a best-of-three series, so the Ninjas should easily cruise through the first day of competition. NiP features the world's number one fnatic killer of recent years in Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg, and they simply have a massive edge over the franchise, though they haven't fared as well against Wallsten's teams. Regardless, they are simply too strong for everyone they could possibly face in the quarter-finals, and will be taking them down en route to securing a semi-finals spot for Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Clan-Mystik and NiP to semi-finals

NiP expected to stroll through their group and quarter-final

Tomorrow we will release our second group stage and quarter-final preview, set to focus on Friday's groups C and D, as well as the quarter-final match-ups from those groups.