Could fnatic surprise again at DH?

It's worth remembering Epsilon were considered cheaters by many experts and players in the spring of 2013, so they've surely come a very long way already since those days.

Though Markus "pronax" Wallsten's era in fnatic was kick-started in Beijing with a second place finish and a valiant effort against then-VeryGames at MSI Beat It 2013, they rose to stardom with the DreamHack Winter championship.

Prior to Wallsten taking over the reins, and even prior to Epsilon becoming fnatic's CS:GO team, the team's only notable merit was a second place finish at DreamHack Summer 2013.

How will fnatic fare in Jönköping this time around? 

Aside from those two very impressive finishes, Robin "flusha" Rönnquist's teams have struggled, averaging out to a 5-8th place team, though with much more variance, both in good and bad, than the rest of them.

It's somewhat perplexing that they, while holding so much potential, almost always seem to crack under pressure before reacing the top finishes. They haven't lost against bad teams though.

Looking at the list of teams who knocked them out, they've mostly gone out against NiP and VeryGames, four times each, as well as dignitas twice, and domestic rivals twice. Below is a list of the core's LAN merits since last spring:

Placing	Event	Prize	Lost to
9-12th	Copenhagen Games 2013	-	VeryGames
2nd	Swedish Championship 2013	~$6,200	NiP
2nd	DreamHack Summer 2013	~$6,200	NiP
2nd	Mad Catz Invitational	1,500€	VeryGames
5-8th	DreamHack Bucharest 2013	-	Lemondogs
4th	SLTV StarSeries VII Finals	$1,500	NiP
5-6th	RC EMS One Fall 2013 Finals	$2,000	Cph Wolves
5-8th	ESWC 2013	-	VeryGames
2nd	MSI Beat It 2013 Finals	$7,000	VeryGames
1st	DreamHack Winter 2013	$100,000	-
3rd	DreamHack Stockholm	-	NiP
5-8th	EMS One Katowice 2014	$10,000	LGB
5-8th	Copenhagen Games 2014	500€	dignitas

As you can see above, they've been very consistent in placing around 5-8th, with the only exceptions being four team events (SLTV Finals, DH Stockholm), a two team finals event (Mad Catz), and MSI Beat It, which featured only three European teams.

That's not to say all hope is lost if fnatic don't manage to turn the ship around in Jönköping. They constantly come very close to beating the teams in the top four, but can't seem to get over the hump.

 

Struggles in close games

We documented fnatic's struggles in close games earlier in the year, and they haven't improved since. fnatic are a horrendous team in close (+-3 rounds) games, boasting a measly 7-4-17 (wins-draws-losses) record against other top teams since Wallsten joined.

To put that into perspective, fnatic have won under 30% of their close matches, while the average is naturally 50%. Winning just a few more close series could have bumped them up to top four finishes at most events.

At Copenhagen Games they crashed out in 5-8th place following not one, but two overtime defeats, of which the first map was a double overtime, at the hands of dignitas.

Wallsten chimed in on their recent losses against dignitas: "I think we have lost the close games to dignitas mostly because we became easy to read during the later stages of the games. Other than that I don't really know, I don't think they did anything out of the ordinary when beating us, it's just us not keeping calm, and not making good decisions."

A month earlier in Katowice they played two maps against LGB where the two Swedes were neck and neck, and then blew the third map 14-16 after a few key defuses by the underdogs.

pronax's fnatic have been terrible in close games 

We asked Wallsten what he thought was the weakest part of fnatic's game strategically: "I think the biggest problem we have had strategically is our ability to change our game plan during the later stage of the games. I think that's one of the reasons why we have lost a lot of close matches. So that is definitely something I am thinking about and trying to improve on."

Struggling in close matches against better teams is not new for Wallsten, who has had similar issues in his previous CS:GO teams, but then again it's common for weaker teams in general to fall short at the very end.

The best known example is probably the group stage match in last year's DreamHack Summer, where Wallsten's mixteam Publiclir.se got up 15-11 against NiP in a knock-out match and lost a practically free three-on-one.

You can't blame it all on Wallsten, but often young teams will take on the identity of their leader, and with no clear alpha dogs in fnatic, when the going gets tough the soldiers likely look to Wallsten for answers.

Still, Rönnquist doesn't think it's on Wallsten at all, but acknowledges the problem: "We have realized this as a problem and we are trying to get everyone in the team involved and giving input on what and how the opponents are playing and what we need to do to win the rounds and most importantly the matches."

 

Worries of the future?

Now, I don't think fnatic is in any rush to let go of their CS:GO team, but they did not send them to ESEA Invite Season 16 Global Finals despite of Chief Gaming Officer Patrik "cArn" Sättermon's plea for a guaranteed $3,000 for last place going through.

When asked about possible changes or the need for new blood, Jonatan "Devilwalk" Lundberg was blunt: "I take the question almost as an insult, we would never kick anyone and there is no such doubt. We feel strongly that this lineup is the one and we will keep pushing to get back into the top tier of the world."

They have also had the team bootcamp for about a month leading up to DreamHack Summer, so if fnatic still can't break the final four, will the Black and Orange organization remain content with its CS:GO team?

Lundberg isn't too worried, though: "I feel extra pressure, but mostly from myself as I obviously don't like to lose, but at the same time the losses we have had and the weak showings have been under a period of time we've been changing a lot of things in our play, trying to find what style really works best for us. Hopefully it will be ready for the DreamHack Summer. We don't think the floor will disappear from under us; we have a strong belief in ourselves and the team we are in."

Devilwalk remains confident about the future 

Wallsten replied regarding worries of their bootcamp being too long and leading to Titan-like symptoms: "I think that the one month bootcamp is more than enough to prepare for DreamHack, but whether it's good for us or not, I don't know. Bootcamping for a long period of time is not the best option for many teams, but I feel like this month is a good "test run" for us, to see if it fits us or not. After DreamHack we can look back and decide if this is something we should do again before other tournaments, or if a 1-2 week bootcamp is enough."

Queried about their ranking, Wecksell said: "I would rank us somewhere between 5-7th, but we really have to step it up and start proving it. We are far from satisfied with our ranking at this moment. Our goal is to be a consistent top 3-4 team, but the road is long and bumpy. Hopefully we reach it, soon enough."

One factor to consider is the bracket draws' effect on final placings. Added Wecksell: "I have always felt that we have been "unlucky" if you can say that in the group and playoffs drawings. We have always faced the toughest opponents for us, but at Dreamhack Winter everything was reverse, we got the best group and the best opponents for us, so in my opinion it is hard to tell if it was our form that was very very awesome at that point or not."

"I would say that during DreamHack Stockholm Invitational we were in pretty decent form, we won very easily against dignitas on de_dust2 but we played the same map against both Titan and NiP and they saw our game, which we couldn't really handle, and after that event I think things just went downfall, we started to change a lot and after a while we lost ourselves a bit I think."

fnatic have felt unlucky at times 

That doesn't mean, however, that this bunch needs a lucky bracket. Wecksell didn't feel they were lucky at the last Summer event: "At DreamHack Summer we didn't really have that much luck, first match we played Western Wolves who were pretty good at that time and after that match we got LDLC, who also were pretty good to be honest. I would say that we won due to us playing insanely well individually, combined with our energy and hunger."

"We never gave up, we always kept fighting and really played like it was the last thing we would do. Versus LDLC I think we managed to do a sick comeback and take it into overtime and then in the third map they were exhausted, while we kept playing our hearts out. So I wouldn't say that we had that much luck at DreamHack Summer, we just played amazing combined with more hunger to win than I've ever felt before."

fnatic shouldn't worry too much, though. The organization likely couldn't extract similar value out any other team they could acquire; their history is rich with Swedish teams, and this squad is one of the youngest top teams out there, with an average age of just 21 years and 174 days - they have plenty of time to gain experience, and to learn as a team.

 

The JW factor

The one factor in fnatic's success at both DreamHack Jönköping events has been MVP-worthy play by Wecksell. He was incredible at the Summer and Winter events of 2013 when they peaked as a team, and he must regain that form for fnatic to thwart NiP in Jönköping.

Wecksell added, regarding his individual play: "I have been trying to find the problem with my inconsistency but it's not really that easy to "just fix", I just need to start to play a bit smarter. I know and feel when I'm supposed to play more defensively but yet I still go aggressive instead, even when it's not really needed."

Seems JW has to be fnatic's best for the team to succeed 

"If I keep working on that and manage to get rid of that "bad habit" I think it would help a lot. Will I become one of the best players after that? We'll just have to wait and see I guess", he concluded.

Lundberg is confident the MVP-like Wecksell will return once everything else is settled: "I think overall JW has matured a lot in both his game play and attitude towards everything. What we all try to do is encourage each other all the time to be positive and eventually we will find ourselves again. our playing style has gone off its course these last couple of months and I'm sure he will get back to his monstrous performances he had at both DH summer and winter once we figure everything out."

 

How will fnatic fare at DreamHack?

fnatic packs two of the top 20 players of 2013 in their roster, a solid in-game leader in Wallsten, a strong fragger in Andreas "schneider" Lindberg, and a decent role player in Lundberg.

One of those top 20 players is Rönnquist, who says he doesn't think he became good out of nowhere; rather he simply started receiving greater recognition once fnatic became more successful.

He also said: "At the beginning of the year I told myself I was going to be one of the best players this year and really try to perform everywhere I played. I think I started receiving more credit when playing well online, too."

Earlier in the year flusha said he wouldn't shave until he hit top three in our player ranking 

Asked about the key to his success and growth as a player, he was modest: "I don't feel uncomfortable in any situation such as going to an event abroad and everything that comes with it, or even small things such as not having the correct height on the chair I'm playing on. I think I'm really good at adapting to anything and I guess that helps both inside and outside of the game."

They also have the backing of a world-class organization, Sättermon's mental coaching if needed, and the knowledge that comes from having done it all before. And, they're back to being underdogs, which is where they seem to thrive.

In an interview with HLTV.org following their DreamHack Winter victory, Lundberg said Sättermon didn't really coach them in terms of strategies and game play, but he helped calm the team down during matches by being on their voice com. That's again a possibility at DreamHack.

Player	Age	Rating
Robin "flusha" Rönnquist	20	1.10
Jesper "JW" Wecksell	19	1.09
Andreas "schneider" Lindberg	21	1.09
Markus "pronax" Wallsten	22	0.93
Jonatan "Devilwalk" Lundberg	23	0.90

Psychologically speaking, Jönköping must feel sort of like a safe haven for the four core players of the team who have each performed well there at the past two events, making the grand final in each.

fnatic's Lindberg quickly disputed the possibility of them feeling more comfortable at DreamHack events in Jönköping, but one must still wonder whether that's truly the case.

fnatic's clock may not be ticking, but it's more important than ever that they have a strong showing at DreamHack Summer 2014, and everything points to them having a good chance at doing just that.

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