The case for Na`Vi at ESWC

As things stand, Natus Vincere's Danylo "⁠Zeus⁠" Teslenko, Ladislav "⁠GuardiaN⁠" Kovács, Ioann "⁠Edward⁠" Sukhariev and coach Sergey "⁠starix⁠" Ischuk are already on-site in Canada.

This afternoon Egor "⁠flamie⁠" Vasilyev and Denis "⁠seized⁠" Kostin finally secured visas to travel to Canada, and their flight should land tomorrow at 18:10 in Montreal.

With their group stage opener set to begin at 21:30 , it should give them enough time - barring no major delays take place - to get to the event before missing any games.

Player	Age	KPR	Rating
Ladislav "⁠GuardiaN⁠" Kovács	24	0.79	1.18
Egor "⁠flamie⁠" Vasilyev	18	0.74	1.08
Ioann "⁠Edward⁠" Sukhariev	27	0.72	1.05
Denis "⁠seized⁠" Kostin	20	0.70	1.04
Danylo "⁠Zeus⁠" Teslenko	27	0.64	0.93
Sergey "⁠starix⁠" Ischuk (Coach)	27	-	-

Na`Vi's full roster will be at ESWC - stats for the past three months

Jetlag may be an issue - it depends on the individual - but it also may not matter. I've played a match directly after landing on a different continent, and it wasn't too bad.

The Russian duo are not flying until tomorrow, so they should be able to manage their sleep to guarantee some shut eye on the under eight hours long flight to feel somewhat rested.

With Na`Vi instantly one of the clear favorites to win ESWC - in fact, Duncan "Thorin" Shields's world rankings place them highest of anyone there - we take a deeper look at their chances in Montreal.

seized and flamie will get to take the stage in Montreal, too, afterall 

 

Group stage - Na`Vi's first test

After hopefully landing in Montreal at 18:10 , Na`Vi's players will have three hours and twenty minutes to get to the event venue in time for their ESWC campaign opener against the Danish SK squad. Not an ideal amount to get ready for a match against a team that is clearly trending upwards, but at the same time, 60% of Na`Vi have been on-site for a couple of days, and the ex-CIS powerhouse are clear favorites in the match against Danny "⁠BERRY⁠" Krüger's team.

In the second match, Natus Vincere will take on Luminosity, who shocked its fans last night by recruiting former fnatic role player, and more recently coach, Jonatan "⁠Devilwalk⁠" Lundberg to replace its number one gun Keith "⁠NAF⁠" Markovic. This is the least dangerous game for Na`Vi. Luminosity looked borderline anemic in Cologne last week, and for a team losing teamwork, losing in skill can never be a good sign. Expect the Na`Vi train to roll right through.

Finally in the third game of the round robin group stage, Na`Vi will face its first real test in the form of Titan. Since the beginning of June, these two teams have played each other on seven different maps. The score is at 4-3, with an average score of 14.1 to 12.1 in Na`Vi's favor. In terms of maps, de_cobblestone has Na`Vi up 2-1, de_inferno Na`Vi leads 1-0 on, and on de_overpass they're down 1-2. Notably, these two have only played on said three maps.

Player statistics for seven maps of Na`Vi vs. Titan since early June

First thing that pops right into your face is that seized has been very effective versus Titan in the seven maps that these two have faced each other on since early June. flamie's has also been better than usual against Kévin "⁠Ex6TenZ⁠" Droolans's troops, while Edward has been largely rendered obsolete in the small sample size of the most recent match-ups only. For Titan, no one but superstar Kenny "⁠kennyS⁠" Schrub - who has been battling a slump of his own - has performed well.

The most important match these two teams have played recently is the DreamHack Summer semi-final, where Na`Vi prevailed 2-1 with wins on de_cobblestone and de_inferno, and a loss on de_overpass. They also met in the grand final of ESL Pro League Winter 2014/2015 Finals, where Titan also fell short 1-2, with losses on de_mirage and de_cobblestone, and a win on de_cache - a map Na`Vi rarely ever even attempts to play.

This match is a toss-up, especially given Na`Vi's travel issues. It will determine whether Na`Vi gets a favorable match-up to make the semi-finals, or if they must go through a tougher team - in the worst case scenario even one of NiP or EnVyUs - on Saturday. Given its importance, I fully expect Zeus and starix to spend all of today preparing for the best-of-one. And Ex6TenZ to do the same. This will be the best match of day one at ESWC.

Last time around, Zeus's Na`Vi overcame Titan 

 

Potential playoff opponents

I made a big deal of the group stage because a one map loss can be the difference between facing one of the tier one teams in the quarter-finals -- or in the horrendous case of a three-way tie, going home. However, no matter who Na`Vi get matched up against in the playoffs, not only can they win, but believe it or not, they should actually be considered slight favorites. Even against both NiP and EnVyUs, arguably the two biggest names in attendance at ESWC this year.

Before we get to those two potential series versus NiP and EnVyUs - which, without a doubt, are the most intriguing ones - let's take a look at the other competition in Montreal who are vying for a top spot in competition with Na`Vi. Zeus's team is 8-3 against FlipSid3 in the past three months - and now the underdogs are missing one of their AWPers, with Spencer "⁠Hiko⁠" Martin replacing him. That will make F3 more random - and potentially more skilled - but will nonetheless hinder their teamplay significantly.

Na`Vi played Renegades, then known as Vox Eminor, on two maps at Gfinity Spring Masters II, finishing one of the most brutal series ever by dropping a total of four rounds across two maps. They also absolutely destroyed Liquid on de_dust2 at the same event, but somehow lost de_overpass - perhaps partly due to underestimating the Americans - later in the best-of-two series. This Na`Vi team has never faced any of Cloud9, Keyd Stars, SK, LDLC White or CLG.

In any case, none of the teams mentioned above are favored to take down the ex-CIS powerhouse. But that doesn't mean matches against them are going to be smooth sailing - by any means. As we saw last weekend in Cologne, there's plenty of talent in the scene capable of upsets. However, based on historical data and odds anyone would give you wagers on, Na`Vi must be considered favorites against each of them. Even after their visa and travel issues.

Cloud9 fans will hope their hustle can overcome Na`Vi 

 

Born to beat f0rest and GeT_RiGhT

For those unaware, Na`Vi, short for Natus Vincere, is latin for born to win. It is fitting then that there's not a single other team in the history of Counter-Strike, I don't think, that has given NiP's star duo of Patrik "⁠f0rest⁠" Lindberg and Christopher "⁠GeT_RiGhT⁠" Alesund more trouble than Na`Vi, ranging back to 2010. While that initially was not the case in CS:GO - with NiP dominating, and Na`Vi changing over much later - it certainly looks like NiP should not like facing Na`Vi too much, based on their past match-ups.

starix's coached team have faced off with NiP ten times in the past three months, with a record of 5-5. In those ten maps, the average score between the two teams is 14.0 to 14.4, in NiP's favor. To make matters worse, Na`Vi played two maps a week ago, scoring seven and eight rounds, respectively. It would seem like NiP are headed in a good place in this series. However, there's something else to this consider - the difference between online and offline matches.

Player statistics for Na`Vi's ten maps vs. NiP in the past three months

Online NiP's advantage balloons to 15.7 over 13.1, or 5-2 in maps. Which in turn means that Na`Vi are 3-0 versus NiP offline, with a round differential of 16 to NiP's 11.3. This Na`Vi roster, since adding flamie, has never lost against NiP offline. Sample size is small, but it matters nonetheless. Na`Vi are arguably better offline, and they will benefit much more from the ability to study their opponents with a lax schedule that only has two best-of-three series in one day on Sunday.

In their qualifying head-to-head matches versus NiP, unsurprisingly, arguably the world's best AWPer GuardiaN has topped the scoreboard. Notably, in their three offline encounters, both f0rest and GeT_RiGhT have been sub-0.91 rating players, with Aleksi "⁠allu⁠" Jalli on top. For Na`Vi the order of the player remains mostly unchanged, with each player's rating simply having improved.  In other words, NiP's losses could be blamed on Na`Vi making their two stars ineffective - something more and more teams seem capable as months and years pass by.

NiP have yet to beat current Na`Vi offline

 

Favorites over the Boys In Blue

After getting knocked out by LDLC/EnVyUs at the last two majors, Na`Vi have bounced back since adding flamie. The two teams have played against each other on thirteen maps in the past three months, with eight of them having taken place offline. In the thirteen games, most notably, Na`Vi hold a perfect 3-0 record over the Frenchmen on de_cobblestone and de_inferno, while having lost three straight times on de_dust2. A rare game for Na`Vi on de_cache ended in an expected loss, and on de_overpass they have a 2-1 advantage - good for an overall 8-5 lead. Round wise, the average score in the thirteen games is 15.1 over 14.3 in flamie's team's favor.

If we remove online games - thus cutting our sample size to eight maps - the round differential is 15.3 over 14.5, or still 0.8 rounds separating these two juggernauts per map. In the eight offline maps Na`Vi have a 5-3 lead - with a best-of-five win at SLTV StarSeries XIII Finals, and a best-of-three win in the semi-finals of ESL Pro League Winter 2014/2015 Finals - and a lonely best-of-one group stage loss at the recent SLTV Finals on de_dust2. Offline the score is tied on de_overpass, and the other 3-0 leads all have shrunk to 2-0.

Player statistics for Na`Vi's eight offline maps vs. EnVyUs in the past three months

Player wise, once again, Na`Vi's best performer has been GuardiaN. Out of the three teams we have put together separate statistics for in this article, only Titan have - at least to an extent of only making him a star-level player - been able to slow him down at all. Otherwise Na`Vi have performed, for the most part, as usual - with Edward having his way more against EnVyUs than versus either Titan or the Ninjas. As with the games versus Titan and NiP, Na`Vi doesn't rely on flamie or seized to be their top fragger versus EnVyUs either.

Looking at EnVyUs, the team has practically collapsed, individually, versus Na`Vi. The only ones whose play have even resembled that of their career averages are Nathan "⁠NBK-⁠" Schmitt and Edouard "⁠SmithZz⁠" Dubourdeaux -- and for the latter, it's only because his averages are so low. Vincent "⁠Happy⁠" Schopenhauer has been converted to an average player from a near-superstar, Richard "⁠shox⁠" Papillon has found no success - outside of the monster performance on de_dust2 of SLTV grand final - and Fabien "⁠kioShiMa⁠" Fiey has neared one of the auto-joining bots in his level of play -- though hopefully with better communication. Safe to say, EnVy haven't been able to stop Na`Vi in the past three months.

shox has been a non-factor versus Na`Vi 

The jetlag effect

As for jetlag, the effects of it should be dying down in time for playoffs. ESWC should be smart enough to compensate Na`Vi's visa issues with a late quarter-final, and by Sunday both flamie and seized should be at 100% of their capabilities. They just need to make it to Sunday, and that means - preferably - three wins tomorrow in the group stage, and then a best-of-three series victory - again, preferably - against a clear underdog on Saturday. Plus, Zeus and starix can try to make up some lost ground by studying their opponents more. And, as mentioned before, neither flamie or seized needs to put up huge numbers for Na`Vi to get there.

At the end of the day, it can be argued that jetlag, especially when traveling west, barely even exists. From my experience, having taken the trip across the pond too many times to count, it's never been an issue for me. Traveling to Asia from North America, or even from Europe, may be a hassle. But traveling west only forces you to stay up a few hours later -- something gamers, in general, should have no issue with. I would wager that the effects of jetlag won't have much of an impact on Na`Vi, unless they allow it to get in their heads as a potential excuse in advance.

Na`Vi have positive records against everyone on-site in Montreal 

 

Cinderella story?

Na`Vi have won ESWC in the past. In fact, the Counter-Strike 1.6 juggernaut, featuring Edward, Zeus and starix from the current squad, flew through competition at ESWC 2010 - in possibly the all-time most impressive tournament run - and placed second a year later. In CS:GO, this marks Natus Vincere's second attendance at ESWC -- having gone out in the semi-finals against LDLC last year.

The team led by Zeus and starix has already won two titles in 2015 - namely ESL Pro League Winter 2014/2015 Finals, and SLTV StarSeries XIII Finals - but though the competition is not necessarily tougher at ESWC, the name certainly still holds more prestige. As a result, completing the Cinderella story of barely making it to Montreal, and winning it all, would be Na`Vi's highlight of the year, so far at least.

Earlier today Shields ranked Na`Vi third in the world, just behind fnatic and TSM. That makes them, effectively, favorites to win the title this weekend. As pointed out in the analysis above, they actually have very favorable records versus practically all of the competition, as well. Time will tell, but it sure looks like Na`Vi's luck may have turned at exactly the right time. 

Could we see Na`Vi hoisting another trophy on Sunday? 

 

You can follow Natus Vincere's campaign in Montreal right here on HLTV.org, as we will be on-site at ESWC to provide you with full coverage of the entire $75,000 tournament.

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