Astralis up against tough odds in final Group A match day in EPL

Only one playoffs spot is left to be decided in Group A in the last round of matches.

The last day of play in Group A at ESL Pro League is upon us, pitting Astralis against HEROIC, Vitality against Spirit, and ENCE up against Bad News Bears. With all three matches of the final round of the group set to run simultaneously at 20:00 , it might look difficult to decide which one you should keep your eye on, so we're here to make your decision a little bit easier as we run through the remaining scenarios of the group.

Current standings

1. HEROIC (4-0)
2. Vitality (3-1)
3. ENCE (2-2)
4. Astralis (2-2)
5. Spirit (1-3)
6. Bad News Bears (0-4)

Final matches

20:00 HEROIC vs. Astralis
20:00 ENCE vs. Bad News Bears
20:00 Vitality vs. Spirit

Heroic and Vitality can rest easy

Two teams have already made their way to the playoffs in the current state of Group A. With four wins to their name and a head-to-head victory versus Vitality as the only team who can match them, HEROIC have secured the top spot in the group with no one left to threaten their standing, so they are heading into the final duel against their local rivals Astralis with just bragging rights and $5,000 extra prizemoney left to play for.

Nothing will change Vitality's current standing in second place, either. The French side locked in their third victory and ensured themselves a place in the playoffs at the end of day four, with wins against Astralis and ENCE putting them atop every tiebreaking scenario with the two teams.

As Spirit are out of contention for a spot in the bracket stage (they can enter a tiebreaker for third place but come out at the bottom due to losses to Astralis and ENCE), the match between the CIS squad and Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut's team is simply a formality with a little bit of money on the line.

Meanwhile, Bad News Bears will finish the group in last place no matter what happens in the final round and can only play spoiler to ENCE, who will be a massive favorite to secure the last playoffs spot on offer in the group.

Astralis are up against tough odds

Astralis have quite the hill to climb if they wish to maintain their run of playoffs finishes in previous ESL Pro League iterations, which dates all the way back to the late-2017's sixth season.

Unfortunately for the Lukas "⁠gla1ve⁠" Rossander-led team, they are not in charge of their own fate. Not only do they need to beat HEROIC in a match where they will be considered underdogs despite Casper "⁠cadiaN⁠" Møller's men already having the top spot secured, Astralis also require Bad News Bears to take down ENCE for them — a seemingly impossible feat, seeing as the North American side lost all eight maps they have played so far and only reached double digits once.

Technically, two scenarios out of eight will see Astralis place third in the group and move on to the playoffs, but the real odds are much, much steeper. Betting company bet365 currently offers 11.00-1.02 odds for Bad News Bears-ENCE and 2.75-1.40 for Astralis-Heroic, which roughly translates to an 8.5% chance for Bad News Bears to pull off the upset and a 33.8% chance for Astralis to defeat HEROIC.

In combination, that means Astralis have around a 2.9% chance of making it through to the playoffs against ENCE's 97.1% chance. You could run the last round of matches every day for the next 34 days, and the Danes would only be expected to advance once.