Expert take: Who will challenge NAVI in 2022? (ft. zews, petr1k, Bleh)

Will the CIS squad have a real challenger after the winter break?

As Natus Vincere concludes the year as the dominant side, having won eight titles including an Intel Grand Slam and a CS:GO Major, it is time to turn our heads towards the future and explore what lies ahead. Teams such as Gambit, G2, Vitality, and HEROIC have stood out during 2021, but will they be able to contend with Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev and co. in the new year?

We spoke to three Counter-Strike experts from three different continents to hear different perspectives on who NAVI's challenger could be, but the answers we received ended up sounding quite similar.

Wilton "⁠zews⁠" Prado, the former coach who can now be seen co-streaming professional matches on Twitch, member of English analyst desks Sudhen "⁠Bleh⁠" Wahengbam, and his CIS counterpart Oleksandr "petr1k" Petryk spoke to HLTV.org and shared their opinions on current and rumored lineups' chances to challenge Natus Vincere.

zews: "This scenario shouldn't change unless something big happens"

"Looking at the challengers, as they stand today, the answer is a hard no," zews is decisive when asked whether a current team could challenge Natus Vincere. "And, as harsh as that sounds, this scenario shouldn't change going into 2022 unless something big happens."

To explain why, the Brazilian detailed all of Natus Vincere's strengths that range from having five capable fraggers and great coaching staff to their mutual understanding on and off the server, the confidence instilled after winning so much, and last but not least, the clutch factor. "They are clutch as f***. Even the rookies, meaning they don't crumble under pressure and can more often than not win those clutch situations by simply waiting for their opponents to mess up."

"If someone wants to challenge NAVI they have to step up their game big time." Talking about current teams, he thinks Gambit has potential "but they seem more like a NAVI Jr. They may need a change and/or time to develop more into a squad that can challenge dad. Heroic have come close but no cigar, they need something more…"

Going into speculative terrain and reported rosters, zews is worried that the language barrier is being overlooked when talking about Vitality who are looking to fuse together the best of the French and Danish scene. "Maybe if Astralis brought back dev1ce?"

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zews is convinced that if we don't see some more big moves in the offseason, Natus Vincere will be even more dominant in 2022 than they were in 2021. His biggest hope to stop that is G2.

"Carlos' and NiKo's G2 seems to be one of the teams looking to put their money where their mouth is and make it an entertaining year." Otherwise, he argues, it will come down to the likes of Gambit, HEROIC, and G2 being able to put up a fight on their best days, but Natus Vincere continuing to dominate on the scale of the whole year.

petr1k: "In the first months of 2022, Gambit will be the main rival"

petr1k is of the opinion that Natus Vincere's dominance in the second half of 2021 forced top teams into roster changes that otherwise wouldn't have happened. "NAVI has raised the bar, so in order to have a chance against them, all teams are striving to strengthen themselves at all costs. With their form, NAVI motivated the whole world in 2021, left their opponents hungry and without titles, so after winter transfers NAVI will potentially have many dangerous rivals."

Hailing from Ukraine, petr1k has been able to follow NAVI and other CIS teams more closely than international experts, and thinks that their main rival early on will come from within the region.

"In the first months of 2022, while the rejuvenated rosters will form their teamplay, Gambit will be the main rival of NAVI. This team has a tendency to improve their results during LAN tournaments, so with each new championship and, especially, with every big stage appearance, they will become stronger. On the CIS scene, for example, RMR events, teams like Virtus.pro and Entropiq will make sure that NAVI is not having an easy time."

But what about the rumored European rosters? "If device returns to Astralis, then this team will be NAVI's No. 1 rival," petr1k thinks. "NIP with device or Astralis without him may succeed at some tournaments, but in the long run they will hardly be able to constantly defeat NAVI."

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device: "All of these nonsense reports of me leaving the team are exactly that, nonsense"

He also has high hopes for G2, but the exact expectations depend on what constellation of players the organization lands. "From all of the proposed options for G2-2022, the most dangerous one for NAVI seems to be the one in which ropz and m0NESY come to the team. If they also change the in-game leader, they will have to work on their teamplay for a long time. Basically, the team will need to be made from scratch." Unlike zews, he doesn't seem concerned by the language issue in Vitality as he believes "the fundamental elements of the team, the in-game leader and sniper," will remain the same and give a good basis to work from.

"It seems like the main rival for NAVI in 2022 will be themselves," he concludes. "If the team manages to maintain their high level of individual play, motivation and continue to develop their tactical component, then in 2022 their domination will continue," petr1k says, before finishing with a racing analogy.

"Right now the situation in tier 1 CS resembles a Formula 1 race where everyone's tires are worn out and they need to go for a pit stop — while NAVI and Gambit keep on going. Yes, these two teams will get far ahead, but with each subsequent lap, their lead will slowly diminish."

Bleh: "G2 with m0NESY and XTQZZZ would be my wild pick"

Bleh focused on three lineups that could challenge Natus Vincere next year: one that exists, one that needs a single roster change, and one that is still only speculated about.

The first one is the Russian side of Gambit, where Bleh sees continual improvement. "They took a while to adapt to the LAN environment but they're slowly but surely getting more comfortable. I don't think they have enough firepower to consistently challenge NAVI but I can see them at least pose a problem for them in the coming months."

The team that is one roster change from being dangerous in his opinion is the Danish powerhouse. "Amongst new lineups, if Astralis get an actual AWPer I feel they can make NAVI bleed. gla1ve is a handy AWPer but only the delusional would think this is enough to elevate Astralis. k0nfig and blameF are already a massive upgrade and given some time with a new AWP they would be my bet to potentially dethrone NaVi."

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Considering the issues Astralis is facing when trying to find a Danish-speaking top AWPer, Bleh's last pick might even be a more realistic one: "G2 with m0NESY and XTQZZZ would be my wild pick to challenge NAVI and even take them down."

"XTQZZZ has proven he has a clear vision of how he wants things to be and he will be instrumental in shaping this new iteration of G2. With NiKo playing at this level, ably supported by huNter- and IF m0NESY can translate his skill to tier 1 CS, this lineup can be dangerous. I'm not too sold on Aleksib as the IGL, if that happens, but even with nexa around it can work."