Opinion: Should we be worried for Vitality?

The French-Danish combine have underwhelmed during their first three months together. Is it time to be ringing the alarm bells?

In November, a report from 1pv.fr shocked the Counter-Strike landscape, indicating that Peter "⁠dupreeh⁠" Rasmussen, Emil "⁠Magisk⁠" Reif, and Danny "⁠zonic⁠" Sørensen would be departing Astralis for Vitality in a bid to create a powerhouse international roster.

The talent of the three and four-time Major champions uniting with Dan "⁠apEX⁠" Madesclaire, Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut, and Kévin "⁠misutaaa⁠" Rabier was a tantalizing prospect in a time where it looked as if no team could contest the dominance of Natus Vincere, and expectations were high for the potential of the lineup heading into the new year when the move was finally made official. However, the team's early results have left much to be desired, and after three top tier events, worry has begun to creep in regarding the team's performance. But is it really warranted, given it has been just three months since the roster came together?

For most viewers, immediate tournament victories weren't expected from the roster, especially given the fact that the players would have to adjust to communicating in English. However, the notoriety of the names on the team, the level Vitality had showcased at the end of 2021, and the stellar individual ability of ZywOo built anticipation ahead of their debut, and there was hope that the roster could still pull off deep runs even early into their time together.

Not living up to expectations

Magisk was quick to downplay the team's early prospects in an interview with HLTV.org in January as well. "I don't expect us to be the best team in the world after a month," the Dane had stated ahead of the roster's debut. So, when the team eventually did make their first appearance, albeit in online competition in the BLAST Premier Spring Groups, it was a pleasant surprise as they displayed solid form, securing a berth at the LAN finals with a top three finish. Inferno looked to be an especially strong map for the team during the event as they showcased strong fundamentals and an ability to play off of each other well despite limited practice, but none of those factors remained consistent as results began to spiral in Vitality's ensuing tournament appearances.

One of the most stacked events of the year, IEM Katowice, was next up on the calendar for the new composition, and there it became much more obvious that the team had a long way to go to truly become worldbeaters. The French-Danish side just barely scraped by MOUZ in their opening match, surprisingly dropping Inferno out of all maps in a series that went the distance, before being subsequently knocked out early following losses to HEROIC and Gambit. Their next appearance at ESL Pro League Season 15 a month later was similarly dismal, ending in a fourth place finish after they picked up just two wins in their group and missed out on making the playoffs.

So, with a handful of matches to look back on now, what are Vitality struggling with to get matches over the line, especially those against weaker opposition? Overall, one of the more concerning issues this early on is their map pool, with the team currently only holding winning records on Inferno and Dust2, and far more crucially, 0-5 and 1-2 records on Mirage and Nuke, respectively — two of the old Vitality roster's best maps. Still, the lack of a winning record across their map pool and dismal early results can easily be chalked up to growing pains and a lack of experience together. Right now, it's more than evident that there are still communication barriers for them to overcome in tight situations, and an adjustment period that still has to fully play out before the players can be fully comfortable playing together with their vastly different backgrounds.

Communication and style issues

That, in fact, is a pivotal component in why Vitality have been struggling: The distinct contrast between how Danish teams — and more specifically, Astralis — approach the game versus the French style of Counter-Strike, which apEX is accustomed to calling in. Attempting to meld the two is a lengthy and arduous process, and one that hasn't gone over cleanly for the team thus far. When watching their matches, there are moments where things just click beautifully, but many others where it's clear there's an internal push-and-pull in how the team responds to situations in-game. Where the Vitality of old would be more systemic in their approach, the Astralis players are more familiar with a loose, "feelings-based" approach to Counter-Strike — something that apEX touched on in a recent interview with 1pv.fr.

"Sometimes we have rounds that look weird, because we don't understand each other," the French captain explained. "I see things a way, but I have to understand what they want and love to do. It's a whole philosophy that has to change and that's not easy. It's little by little, sometimes I get to call, sometimes I give them freedom, It's not easy to find the balance. They're going to die more than my former players, so the calls are less obvious. At Vitality, we worked on 'on the fly' calls, I love that. They are not used to that. They played a lot in the Astralis way and never changed their game. For now it doesn't fit well. They are less disciplined than us and play by feelings. I've never had players like that. We have to adapt to each other, it takes time."

Prodigy in his first slump

Without a doubt, though, the biggest factor in Vitality's downturn of results has been the drop in form of their superstar, ZywOo. The 21-year-old has struggled to replicate the same dominant level of play we're used to seeing from him over the course of the 28 maps the new-look Vitality have played, averaging a 1.04 rating against top 20 opponents (20 maps) ⁠— an immense 0.25 drop from ZywOo's average of 1.29 against top 20 teams for all of 2021.

That kind of level is just the reality of what we have come to expect from the likes of Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev, ZywOo, and Nikola "⁠NiKo⁠" Kovač. Baffling, team-carrying numbers that have been pivotal in helping overcome all other factors and help lead their teams to victory time and time again, and for the latter two players, even more important as they haven't always been surrounded by talent who can put up equally strong individual showings.

That is why it is all the more concerning that ZywOo's form has suffered so significantly, but also puts into perspective that maybe it isn't all sorrow for the new international Vitality squad despite some dismal early results. ZywOo's current level could very well be just a short-term dip and he could return to world-beating form in no time, and more promising than that, dupreeh has had a resurgence of form on his own, which offers even further hope for the team's prospects. It's hard to ignore the aforementioned communication issues and struggles to integrate the two different styles of play together at the moment — which has caused some players, but especially ZywOo, to stumble — but there are far more promising facets for the roster as they look toward the future, and even more importantly, focus on long-term progress.

"Our short term goals are about improving and becoming as good as we can as fast as possible, but we're not really working in the short term," Magisk had said early on. "We want to win tournaments, to be able to beat NAVI, and that's going to take time. It'll take some disappointing moments in the near future, but we'll still play to win. It doesn't matter how good we are."

With the exception of their BLAST Spring Groups result, disappointing moments have definitely unfolded for the French-Danish combine in recent months. Keep in mind, though, that we are just three events and three months into the tournament season, and the overall experience, adaptability, and long-term focus of the roster offers so much promise for the future. With zonic dealing with personal matters early in the year, his impact on the team's development very well could not be felt yet, which leaves so many avenues for improvement the team can still explore. On top of that, the pedigree of the players as a whole only gives further hope that results will soon follow, so for now, their early exits aren't really a cause for concern as it takes much longer to completely integrate three players from an entirely different culture and team environment.

Time to perform

The question one must ask then, is how long do we give this team before they no longer can excuse their results based on still integrating the players together and getting their strategy book in order? Six months? A year? I'd argue that if they aren't consistently managing top four finishes by the tournament break, we should definitely begin to worry as this lineup was put together to be worldbeaters, not just make it to the playoffs.

Crucially, the team's Esports Director, Fabien "Neo" Devide, is clear on what his own expectations are for the team, and the instructions he's given to zonic: to shape the team into Major champions, and repeat Major champions at that, within two years. "He knows from the beginning, I'm crystal clear on this. zonic — you have two years to win a Major, but the biggest difference with this team is that if we win a Major I want to make sure we have a proper shot to win several Majors," he had said in an interview with HLTV.org in January. Already, four months are in the hole, and the first Major in the lineup's time together is quickly approaching.

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Vitality Esports Director: "When this team starts winning, we will win for a long, long time"

One thing is for certain at this point — missing out on PGL Major Antwerp would most certainly be a massive disappointment for the players, fans, and the organization, so we can only hope that apEX's side are able to bounce back as they now turn their attention to the first RMR event in Bucharest, where they'll hope to make it through to the $1,000,000 event in Belgium by showcasing better form, and hopefully with a revitalized ZywOo in tow.