Can anyone stop G2 at IEM Katowice?

It's the business end of the first Big Event of the year, so it's time to look at each team's case for taking the trophy.

The playoffs of IEM Katowice are upon us, and there is plenty to get excited about when looking forward to the matchups ahead. G2 have elevated themselves above the competition with their superlative form to start the year, but HEROIC's impressive ramp up throughout the tournament has them hot on the European squad's heels when discussing favourites.

Beyond the two favourites we have a group of teams who, for different reasons, have question marks next to their names. Natus Vincere have reworked their game since adding Andrii "⁠npl⁠" Kukharskyi, Vitality are yet to convince that they aren't entirely reliant on Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut, and Liquid's stars had a slow start to the year. As for Outsiders, they seem to be flying under the radar right now, considering their own recent roster move. The question is can any of them, including HEROIC, stop the immense win streak G2 are on right now?

The favourites: G2

G2 are the favourites for IEM Katowice, make no bones about it. They have put together an impressive map win streak to start the year, beaten two of the big names in the scene in FaZe and Natus Vincere, and looked sublime while doing it. Their immense proficiency on Inferno is a massive boon considering it is by far the most played map on LAN this year, as is their strength on the specialist pick of Nuke. They permaban Overpass so the only map left to be tested is Vertigo, which may very well happen should Vitality make the semi-final; the Franco-Danish squad have picked it once and left it as a decider once so far this year.

The one factor that could be levied against G2 is their historical propensity to struggle in the big matches, and specifically grand finals, however this argument is tenuous at best considering the significantly different lineup they now house, and the BLAST World Final win to end last year. Quite frankly it is hard to look past G2, and they would likely be overwhelming favourites were it not for the excellent form HEROIC have produced in Poland. Even then HEROIC are yet to play teams of the calibre of Natus Vincere and FaZe.

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When it comes to the individuals, G2 are going above and beyond. We all expect Nikola "⁠NiKo⁠" Kovač, Nemanja "⁠huNter-⁠" Kovač and Ilya "⁠m0NESY⁠" Osipov to frag; they are some of the best players in the world. What we don’t necessarily expect is to see Justin "⁠jks⁠" Savage posting a 1.30 rating for an event, or to see Rasmus "⁠HooXi⁠" Nielsen produce the type of impact he did on Ancient against FaZe or on Anubis against BIG. Not only is the team operating well as a unit, but every single player seems to be producing their best form, or something close to it.

No matter who of Vitality or Liquid make the semi-final against G2, they will be heavy underdogs. Their individuals would need to go god-mode, and even then G2 are so proficient at the popular maps right now that it is tough to see a world where either team could win one map, let alone two. This is true of virtually any opponent G2 could face in the final. Bank on them taking the IEM Katowice trophy.

The strongest challengers: Heroic

Coming in at No. 2 on the HLTV writers' power ranking are the Danes of HEROIC, and their steady ramp up throughout IEM Katowice has been compelling to watch. The year began in inauspicious fashion with a middling performance at BLAST Spring Groups, losses to Evil Geniuses and Vitality suggesting HEROIC needed some time to get themselves back up to full speed. That theory was proven here in Poland as they got better with each series, dispatching Complexity 2-1 despite losing their map pick, confidently beating OG 2-0, before utterly blowing Vitality off the server to secure a semi-final berth.

What undoubtedly boosts their title credentials significantly is the fact that two of their players are in the top-five rated for the event thus far, and it is not two that you might expect. Jakob "⁠jabbi⁠" Nygaard has been producing numbers akin to prime-Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev, and his potent work on offensive halves has been integral to HEROIC’s event-leading T-side win percentage. The decision-making the young Dane displayed in some of the most impactful and autonomy-driven positions was, at times, breathtaking. Rasmus "⁠sjuush⁠" Beck is the other over-performer, the ever-reliable anchor putting up an excellent 1.25 rating for the event thus far and producing multi-kill after multi-kill, particularly on defence.

The toughest opponent HEROIC have faced this year has been Vitality, redeeming the loss at BLAST Spring Groups by spanking them here in Katowice, albeit in a seeding match for the playoffs. There is an argument to be made that they are yet to face an opponent like FaZe or Natus Vincere, with the latter of those two placed above Vitality in our power ranking. It is not the strongest of arguments as Vitality have been one of the most successful teams at the start of 2023, but it is still a point in the con column.

Should HEROIC make the final, which is by no means a given considering they could face Natus Vincere in the semi-final, they will need their individuals to continue over-performing should they match up against G2. Should jabbi and sjuush return to their baseline, it would be a monumental task for HEROIC to win the trophy.

A powerful machine being rebuilt: NAVI

One of the toughest teams to assess right now is Natus Vincere. It was always going to take some time to properly bed in npl, but they have accomplished that task largely successfully thus far considering the only squad to have beaten them this year is G2. The stiffest test the CIS giants have had to face this year has been Liquid in the upper bracket of their group in Katowice and they passed with solid marks, thoroughly spanking the NA side on Inferno before stealing away the opponent’s pick of Anubis.

This has all been done in the midst of an extensive restructuring of the team’s approach and roles as Ilya "⁠Perfecto⁠" Zalutskiy has been called upon to play more active positions, Valeriy "⁠b1t⁠" Vakhovskiy moved to anchor positions and passive roles on T, and Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov once again asked to switch up his duties. Such drastic changes being met with positive results outside of games against G2 is an excellent sign for Andrey "⁠B1ad3⁠" Gorodenskiy and his squad, but the playoffs here in Katowice will be a far more robust challenge for the much-revamped side to overcome.

There are also, perhaps for the first time in many years, questions over the form of Natus Vincere’s superstar s1mple. The talent of the Ukranian AWPer is such that a 1.17 rating in Katowice so far is considered an underperformance, but accounting for the rebuild Natus Vincere are currently undertaking, his firepower is a vital element in masking any difficulties they may be experiencing. When you also consider the fact electroNic and b1t are both short of the form that helped NAVI dominate in 2021, the sheer fragging that a peak s1mple can provide is likely a necessity if Natus Vincere want to seriously challenge for the title.

With all of that context in mind Natus Vincere still reside comfortably in the third spot on the HLTV power ranking, which goes to show just how solid Natus Vincere have been despite their rebuild and the confidence people have in their ability to perform on stage. Few teams have so much experience on big stages in important matches, and harnessing this experience will be key to Natus Vincere progressing in Katowice. Considering they have Outsiders in the quarter-final, the team sat at the bottom of the power ranking, they should be able to at least make the semi-final.

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The not-quite-super team: Vitality

Vitality spent much of last year as a super team missing the super, heavily reliant on ZywOo just to keep them competitive as they struggled with playstyle issues and a language barrier. Fast forward to 2023 and Vitality haven’t quite been able to live up to the prowess displayed at EPL 16 after the addition of Lotan "⁠Spinx⁠" Giladi, but they have started this year in promising form. Five straight series victories and some excellent performances out of their carry duo of Spinx and ZywOo are cause for optimism.

Despite their impressive streak Vitality are still yet to have their full map pool tested, having been able to avoid playing either Ancient or Anubis thus far in 2023, and their complete capitulation against HEROIC in their last match casts some doubt over how close they are to the S-tier squads in the game right now. When you consider the resume of wins Dan "⁠apEX⁠" Madesclaire and co. have accrued this year, further doubt arises: they have beaten Astralis in their tier-one debut with Christian "⁠Buzz⁠" Andersen, a weak Evil Geniuses side, and a Ninjas in Pyjamas squad debuting Kristian "⁠k0nfig⁠" Wienecke. It is worth bearing in mind however that they defeated HEROIC at Spring Groups, even if the Danes’ current form suggests some ring rust may have been present during that event.

The match against Liquid will be the best litmus test for Vitality thus far, a chance to prove that their early season form has not come about merely due to some favourable matchups against teams with obvious problems or hindrances. ZywOo will of course be key in securing victory, not just because of his status as one of the best players in the world but also because of his significant upsides when compared to Josh "⁠oSee⁠" Ohm. Locking down that AWP battle will give Vitality a vital edge in what should be a close game, it just comes down to whether the rest of the team can provide the support needed. Vitality fans will be hoping the air quality in Katowice is up to scratch.

North America's hope: Liquid

The shining lights of the North American scene returned from the off-season in poor form, unable to carry forward their momentum from the runners-up finish they achieved in the final event of last year. At BLAST Premier Spring Groups Liquid could only muster a single series win against regional rivals Complexity, and the losses they suffered were at the hands of squads short of Counter-Strike’s elite, namely OG and BIG.

Much of this could be attributed to the shaky performances of Liquid’s key duo, Mareks "⁠YEKINDAR⁠" Gaļinskis and Jonathan "⁠EliGE⁠" Jablonowski. The pair managed 0.96 and 1.01 ratings respectively during that event, and struggled to find the kind of impact that their team requires of them to succeed. Plenty has been said by analysts regarding Liquid’s potential over-reliance on their Latvian import in particular, especially on T side, and his below par percentage of opening attempts and success rate in these attempts during Spring Groups was certainly a factor in the team’s failure to qualify for the Spring Final.

IEM Katowice brought with it at least a partial resurgence for both players, with EliGE providing a more consistent if somewhat quieter presence whilst YEKINDAR has been more variable, but with a higher upside. This was evidenced by the Latvian’s hugely impactful showing to help haul the team into the playoffs over FaZe.

Their map pool still requires work as they are struggling for a consistent ‘home’ map and EliGE may well need to step up further and provide more impact, but the impressive showings of Keith "⁠NAF⁠" Markovic and oSee combined with a more in-form YEKINDAR certainly makes them a dangerous proposition for any team in the playoffs. At the very least, they are certainly capable of taking down Vitality, but it will likely be a close match considering they sit side-by-side in our power ranking.

Major champions, yet unfavoured: Outsiders

The reigning Major champions slot in right at the bottom of the HLTV power ranking, and with good reason. Not only did they end last year with a dismal showing at the BLAST Premier World Final, they also made a shocking roster change in the off-season, bringing Aleksandr "⁠KaiR0N-⁠" Anashkin in to replace David "⁠n0rb3r7⁠" Danielyan. Eyebrows were raised, not because of any doubts over the potential of 19-year-old KaiR0N-, but because of questions as to the wisdom of changing a relatively short-lived roster that had managed to upset the odds and win the IEM Rio Major.

The Russian squad’s play at IEM Katowice has done nothing to inspire confidence, as evidenced by their placement in HLTV’s power ranking, but it has also been anything but poor. Their latest addition is currently sporting a healthy 1.14 rating for the event, and the team recovered from a disappointing opening loss to fnatic to win three series back-to-back, earning them a spot in the Spodek Arena. These positives are countered by the fact Outsiders have looked incredibly weak in certain maps, such as their 5-16 trouncing on Vertigo at the hands of an Ninjas in Pyjamas squad in some disarray. KaiR0N- has also not been perfect, his overall solid level belying the fact he displays a certain amount of naivety and inexperience when it comes to intricate mid-round situations.

There is also the brutal reality that Outsiders benefited from an incredibly kind draw to make the playoffs. They beat a Ninjas in Pyjamas squad scrambling to integrate k0nfig into the lineup, an OG side forced to use their coach as a stand-in, and a Complexity lineup that have only once made the playoffs of a LAN event. Factor in their struggles on Vertigo, refusal to play Nuke, shaky Overpass, and an as-of-yet untested Ancient, and it becomes very difficult to make an argument for Outsiders to beat Natus Vincere in the quarter-finals, let alone go all the way and win the competition. Expect Outsiders to fall at the first hurdle in the Katowice playoffs.