The Ewing theory: When losing your best player is a good thing

Rostermania is a scary time to have a superstar on the roster, but it is also a time of opportunity — here are the ways to replace your star player.

Counter-Strike is a team sport, but it’s a small team: Star players are the ones who get the credit, roles, and media requests after games. In some cases, the gravitational pull of one player can be so overwhelming that it seems like the team lives and dies based on their performance.

The question is: What happens when the star leaves? Funnily enough, there’s already a theory for this: The Ewing theory. Ran in a 2001 article about NBA star Patrick Ewing, the theory goes that teams can actually prosper when a star player of this ilk leaves a team.

There are two conditions: The star player receives a lot of media attention and fan interest but never wins anything substantial with the team. Then, when the star leaves, the team is written off as an underdog but overperforms those low expectations.

This is not a theory any academic paper would propose. Star players are valuable precisely because they are so good. But, there are counter-intuitive examples of this process happening in any sport, and why would CS be any different?

We don’t quite have the tabloid or paparazzi culture that elevates superstars even higher and titles are easier to grasp in the semi-open circuit, but there are still instances of players defining their teams and, when a big fish comes calling, departing for pastures new.

Teams cannot usually choose when this happens, but they are in control of what to do next. By looking at Counter-Strike history, we have gathered some lessons organizations can follow. Here's the guide to making the Ewing Theory come true.

1. Plug and play into an established system

The vast majority of professionals are, to some degree, system players. Very few players can turn up to a tier-one match and PUG it out for a 30-bomb. In-game leaders, secondary callers, coaches, assistant coaches, data analysts, and the team as a whole are collectively responsible for building a system in which star players (and thus, the team) can thrive.

Someone has to run out first for the star on bomb-site hits. Another might be throwing the perfect flash. A third could have sacrificed his favored position or role for them. An analyst might have done some extra preparation for the star player so they can get an extra hour or two of deathmatch. The individual heights star players hit are implicitly team achievements, too.

The logic follows, then, that star players are replaceable. There are heaps of talented tier-two professionals ready to make the jump, but it's the system and environment at their new team that enable that successful transition.

ENCE were a good team in 2022, but from the outside, it was star lurker Lotan "⁠Spinx⁠" Giladi who made them tick. Nowhere was this more obvious than at PGL Major Antwerp, where Spinx averaged a 1.33 rating in a 3-0 Legends stage and crushing quarter-final victory over Copenhagen Flames.

A disastrous semi-final defeat to Natus Vincere lowered his event rating to 1.21, but his point had been made: Spinx was a player destined for the big leagues. At the time, that meant leaving ENCE. Vitality snapped him up and finally found the second star to Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut they had needed for so long.

ENCE had to pivot. Marco "⁠Snappi⁠" Pfeiffer and Eetu "⁠sAw⁠" Saha remained and a plan was devised with the funds they had received: Replace Spinx's star output with AWPer Álvaro "⁠SunPayus⁠" García, and sign Valdemar "⁠valde⁠" Bjørn Vangså to offer some of the supportive duties Olek "⁠hades⁠" Miskiewicz used to offer. valde was removed at the start of 2023 and a true Spinx replacement was found in Guy "⁠NertZ⁠" Iluz.

With a star profile that fit the Spinx mould, Snappi's system could once again help a rifler be among the very best in the world. NertZ would match Spinx's exploits, another aggressive lurker with freedom and the individual ability to put up the numbers required.

NertZ might not have made such a smooth transition in another team, but in a large part thanks to Spinx, the foundation was there for a smooth landing in a top team. And, at the end of 2023, NertZ walked away with the Rookie of the Year prize.

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NertZ wins Rookie of the Year award

Mathias "⁠MSL⁠" Lauridsen's Dignitas went through a similar cycle of developing star riflers that were poached and then successfully replaced around 2016: First it was Philip "⁠aizy⁠" Aistrup, then Markus "⁠Kjaerbye⁠" Kjærbye, and the cycle ended with Kristian "⁠k0nfig⁠" Wienecke's departure.

But what happens when the system is ripped out, too? GamerLegion had an even more miraculous Major run than ENCE did in Antwerp when they made the Paris Major final off the back of a magnificent performance by Mihai "⁠iM⁠" Ivan.

No surprises, then, when iM was poached by Natus Vincere soon afterward. But what truly hurt GamerLegion was that they lost in-game leader Kamil "⁠siuhy⁠" Szkaradek, too.

A replacement would never have matched Paris Major level iM, but he might have matched iM's average frag counts if he was under siuhy and set up in the same way.

GamerLegion, since then, have removed one IGL in the form of Sanzhar "⁠neaLaN⁠" Iskhakov and are still adapting to new in-game leader Janusz "⁠Snax⁠" Pogorzelski, while the solid and serviceable Sebastian "⁠volt⁠" Maloș is not a natural star player like iM was. They have a different team composition, and a different system — making their rebuild a longer-term process.

2. Replace them in the aggregate

Like-for-like replacements aren't always available. NertZ was a great pickup for ENCE, but what if they had persevered with valde? Was success possible without a star lurker? By looking at a new case, that of Monte, there is an argument in favor of it.

Jordanian spacetaker Mohammad "⁠BOROS⁠" Malhas lit up the Paris Major as iM had, using his aggressive style to shock top teams into submission. When he departed for Falcons soon after, and Alexander "⁠br0⁠" Bro came in to replace him, you would have been forgiven for assuming that Monte had peaked.

Instead, they have gone from strength to strength and remain in the world ranking's top 10. They had a decent debut with br0 in Cologne, top-four finishes at ESL Pro League and Thunderpick World Championship, and won ESL Challenger Jönköping.

In BOROS’ absence, players like Sergiy "⁠DemQQ⁠" Demchenko and Volodymyr "⁠Woro2k⁠" Veletniuk have stepped up and the system has come into its own without as much individualism. "Now we have more structure, and I can rely on people simply not dying when we don't need to," Viktor "⁠sdy⁠" Orudzhev said in Cologne. "It's much easier on T side than it was before right now." BOROS' fragging was, to put it in Moneyball terms, re-created in the aggregate.

It was, and maybe still is, a surprise that sdy and DemQQ were able to elevate their play to the level Monte needed to compete without BOROS, but that they could do so proves it is possible.

Fellow Ukrainian organization Natus Vincere is also benefitting from this approach, finding a way to remain at a solid level without Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev. Lower expectations have created a better environment for the likes of iM (0.99 rating with s1mple, 1.10 since) and Justinas "⁠jL⁠" Lekavicius (1.01 with s1mple, 1.10 since) to shine.

This is the harder approach. It requires coaching and a level of dedication to unlock an extra gear in players that, in theory, are known quantities. You only have to look at valde in ENCE as an example of replacing a star player in the aggregate failing, at least initially.

There is also Astralis, who lost Nicolai "⁠device⁠" Reedtz to Ninjas in Pyjamas in 2021. k0nfig and Benjamin "⁠blameF⁠" Bremer came in as a star-rifling duo to try and plug the firepower deficit, but Astralis struggled perennially until the very man they had lost returned in 2023.

3. Re-invent a current player and promote from within

Sometimes, though, you know the ceilings of your players. You know that players won't all be able to elevate their level like Monte did. And, if you don't have the budget for a superstar signing, what is the plan then?

We have to look no further than MOUZ for this one, who have done it not once, but twice. First, Robin "⁠ropz⁠" Kool was sold to FaZe and David "⁠frozen⁠" Čerňanský took his star lurker roles in 2022 and now history is repeating itself with frozen's own move to FaZe and Jimi "⁠Jimpphat⁠" Salo taking up the star lurker mantle in the team.

frozen had played several roles since joining MOUZ as a 16-year-old in March 2019, but he had been a lurker beforehand. With ropz occupying that role in his new side, he had to wait for his chance in the sun. Luckily, he was versatile enough that it rarely mattered.

So when ropz finally departed to FaZe, frozen took the opportunity left to him with both hands. As MOUZ's primary star and lurker, frozen averaged a 1.18 rating with a 42% survival rate that showed what type of player he had become.

Jimpphat is now primed to attempt the same feat. He came into MOUZ as their anchor and still had to defer to frozen in some late-round scenarios. But, in the Slovak's absence and with the more aggressive Ludvig "⁠Brollan⁠" Brolin drafted in as the new fifth, the road is clear for the Finn to now become MOUZ's primary closer.

The MOUZ NXT pipeline is a useful tool for many reasons, but economically it enables the signing of future stars on long-term contracts without the need for a buyout. That was easier when the Academy League existed, though the new NXT lineup have won their last two events, EPL 2nd Division and United21 League, so this approach is still viable provided you have the infrastructure of an organization like MOUZ.

Jimpphat will not have the pressure or eyeballs upon him like a big-money signing, but make no mistake: He is MOUZ's real frozen replacement.

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So, where does this leave us? The Ewing theory is not perfect, and losing bonafide superstars is nearly always a bad thing. But there is something to the psychological relief losing a star player can sometimes have.

Cloud9 had the weight of the world upon them after signing Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov and Ilya "⁠Perfecto⁠" Zalutskiy in the summer of 2023, but it was only after Dmitry "⁠sh1ro⁠" Sokolov took a break that the team looked like a cohesive unit. Their lack of a primary sniper has cost them at times, but it would be hard to argue that they are at least not at a similar level to when they had their star AWPer. Preasy have since followed their example by picking up rifler Peter "⁠dupreeh⁠" Rasmussen when star hybrid AWPer Nico "⁠nicoodoz⁠" Tamjidi left for HEROIC.

Team sports always have superstars, the names that casual fans cling to, players that earn the biggest bucks and have the impact that is easiest to notice at a glance. But, the Ewing theory is a reminder that these disciplines can be as much about the unit as their highlight-generating phenom — and that very few players are irreplaceable.

Whether CS is a strong-link or weak-link sport (whether it is about your best players pushing you forward, or worst players holding you back) is a matter for another article, but there are enough examples to prove that losing your superstar does not have to be terminal. Systems in which superstars can flourish are often strong enough to survive the vacuum a superstar's exit generates.

Counter-Strike's skill ceiling has narrowed, with supreme mechanics at all levels and games decided on minutiae more and more often. NertZ, the rookie of 2023, always had potential, but it was only at the age of 24 (albeit delayed by over two years in the military service) that Snappi and sAw unlocked it with ENCE.

There are bound to be more surprises in 2024 and beyond. The Ewing theory won't come true all of the time but, when it does, we suspect a plan will have been in place for longer than you might think.