Editoral: HLTV writers predict IEM Cologne surprises and disappointments

As we're heading into a wide-open IEM Cologne, HLTV writers share their predictions of the biggest surprises and disappointments to come from the iconic event.

IEM Cologne begins on Wednesday with the first stage and the HLTV writing staff has come together for a round of predictions ahead of the event.

With as many as six different names thrown around as contenders for the title and the world order changing with every tournament of late, it looks impossible to call who will be on the top step of the podium in a fortnight at IEM Cologne.

So instead, our writing staff looked at the field to see who has the potential to throw up a surprise and which of the bigger names in conversation for a deep run could be in for a rough ride, and picked out one team for each of the two categories:

NER0's pick to surprise: Natus Vincere

It's strange to pick the world No. 1 as a team ready to surprise, but there are still plenty of doubts in the community around the team that 'fluked' the Major and lost twice to Liquid at Fall Groups.

Valeriy "⁠b1t⁠" Vakhovskiy and Ihor "⁠w0nderful⁠" Zhdanov have elevated their level to 1.15+ rating players at the start of the new season, and Mihai "⁠iM⁠" Ivan has finally found a way to frag from his roles. Aleksi "⁠Aleksib⁠" Virolainen and Andrey "⁠B1ad3⁠" Gorodenskiy, even when those individuals are quiet, can find a way to win.

Add in a favorable seed that means they only need to beat a low-ranked play-in team and Astralis for playoffs (where the arena will elevate Justinas "⁠jL⁠" Lekavicius as always), and we could be on our way to a third 'fluke' of the year.

NER0's pick to disappoint: Astralis

I'm putting a lot of eggs in the likely Natus Vincere-Astralis Group A upper bracket semi-final, but there's a reason. Nicolai "⁠device⁠" Reedtz taking over in-game leadership was a risk that initially seemed to be paying off, returning Martin "⁠stavn⁠" Lund to all his favored roles and giving him plenty of tactical responsibility as results trended upwards.

But the similarities to that old HEROIC team don't end in the tactics. They have now suffered crushing upset losses to The MongolZ in Abu Dhabi and Virtus.pro in London that killed the honeymoon cold. They are a good team, but short of the map pool (greatly missing Overpass, and struggling on Dust2) to challenge NAVI and lack the individuals to challenge G2 and Spirit. An early exit is not out of the question.

Lucas' pick to surprise: 9z

9z already surprised everyone at the end of the Spring season when they beat MOUZ, Liquid, and Vitality on the way to a semi-final finish at IEM Dallas. Then they beat KOI and fnatic at the FiReLEAGUE Global Finals to win the tournament, which shot them up to 12th place in the world ranking. On top of that, they moved from South America to Europe over the summer in order to continue their development.

The decision to go with them as a surprise is not so much because I think that they will be better than their current spot in the ranking or that they will peak higher than their semi-final finish in Dallas, but because I think they can keep showing that their good results weren't a fluke and continue to compete with the best teams in the world at an event of the stature of IEM Cologne instead of disappearing back into the depths.

Lucas' pick to disappoint: FaZe

FaZe defined the early days of CS2 by winning four titles and reaching seven grand finals, but after losses to Natus Vincere, G2, and Ninjas in Pyjamas since returning from the summer break, FaZe haven't hit the ground running after a slow end to the Spring season, which they ended with four losses in five games — and their only victory was against SAW.

"I think, most of all, we need to wake up and look at ourselves in the mirror. It comes down to everyone pushing through. It's a mental battle now, which we used to be good at, but sometimes things change," Finn "⁠karrigan⁠" Andersen said after FaZe was eliminated from the BLAST Premier Fall Groups. If any team can win that mental battle and go on to find redemption in the cathedral, I would bet on FaZe to be that team, but sometimes things change.

Sumljiv's pick to surprise: BIG

BIG struggled with firepower for a long time, and the summer addition of Rigon "⁠rigoN⁠" Gashi adds exactly that. While he had a rough debut tournament at BLAST Groups, he showed glimpses of his potential in the loss against Natus Vincere, where he was far and away the best player on the team.

Another positive was Florian "⁠syrsoN⁠" Rische's form in their win against Virtus.pro in Copenhagen. Whether he can keep that up remains to be seen, but the optimist in me says he is slowly but surely turning a corner.

BIG are also the home-town team that is no stranger to a Cinderella run in Cologne, and a positive result would be a sight for sore eyes after their recent struggles. Their play-in bracket pits them against FlyQuest, The MongolZ and SAW, which gives them a solid chance of progression, with the main event always throwing up a surprise or two — and it might just be BIG's turn again.

Sumljiv's pick to disappoint: Virtus.pro

After Virtus.pro completed the blockbuster move for Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov, expectations were high straight out of the gate. The addition of the Russian superstar had a profound impact on the team's playstyle, however, which meant the team was often caught in two minds and prompted the organization to swap out long-time coach Dastan "⁠dastan⁠" Akbayev for Andrey "⁠Xoma⁠" Mironenko.

In an interview with HLTV at the Esports World Cup, electroNic said that the team is starting to feel their game, but results at the EWC and BLAST Fall Groups haven't backed up his claims.

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electroNic: "You can't only play a slow style; we have almost found the balance"

VP will start their Cologne campaign at the main event and already have MOUZ, Vitality and FaZe in their group, and it is tough to see how they could contend for a playoff spot in such a stacked bracket. In addition, electroNic's individual form remains a worry. The Russian rifler is averaging a 1.03 rating across his tenure in the team, which is looking increasingly similar to his ill-fated Cloud9 stint.

MIRAA's pick to surprise: paiN

Given 9z's lack of match time since the end of the last season, I'm going to go with paiN on this one. Everyone remembers just how well they did at the Copenhagen Major, where they were one victory away from reaching the playoffs and lost to eventual winners Natus Vincere in the 2-2 pool.

Rodrigo "⁠biguzera⁠" Bittencourt's billing as one of the best in-game leaders in Brazil will be put to the test in the first round of the play-in as they will go up against the new-look Liquid. paiN are on a 14-match winning streak in South America, and I'm looking forward to seeing João "⁠snow⁠" Vinicius in action against international opposition.

MIRAA's pick to disappoint: Natus Vincere

FaZe and Vitality are obvious picks here given their recent struggles, so I'm going with Natus Vincere, who come off a disappointing showing at the BLAST Premier Fall Groups. Yes, they qualified for the Fall Final in the end, but they looked sluggish and off the pace in some moments and had to beat BIG and Complexity — hardly the toughest challenges.

Time and time again, Natus Vincere's players and head coach B1ad3 have highlighted the importance of bootcamps to steer the ship back on course. Only a few days separate the Fall Groups and IEM Cologne, so questions need to be asked about their preparation for the German event. Natus Vincere have a worrying tendency to blow hot and cold, and reaching the semi-finals from their group will be extremely hard, considering that G2 and their nemesis, Spirit, are on the opposite side of the bracket.

Another key issue for Natus Vincere is the lack of depth of their map pool. Outside of Mirage and Nuke, it's hard to know what they're comfortable on, and this could land them in trouble if either map is banned.

Dempz's pick to surprise: BIG

BIG just brought onboard rigoN in what is a significant upgrade to their squad on paper, and in only their second official with the ex-Guild Eagles rifler, they took down the No. 7 team in the world, Virtus.pro. Not a bad return for a team that only recently struggled badly against sub-top opposition at YaLLa Compass.

In said series against Virtus.pro, BIG had plenty going for them. syrsoN was impactful on the AWP throughout, something that has not been a guarantee since he returned to the fold. Karim "⁠Krimbo⁠" Moussa was a consistent performer, but didn't have to pop off. Jon "⁠JDC⁠" de Castro had an absolute baller map in the decider. BIG played three good T-sides, and were a shade unlucky not to run it back to earn overtime on Mirage.

I'm not just hanging my hat on a single BO3, as I realize BIG got spanked twice by Natus Vincere (who are the No. 1 ranked team in the world, by the way). If BIG can hit their peak form across all their players, they are a force to be reckoned with, and if there is any time they are going to hit that form, it's at their home event. Don't sleep on BIG, because they're making a playoff run in Cologne.

Dempz's pick to disappoint: MOUZ

MOUZ put together a hot streak last season which saw them bag a second-place finish and back-to-back tournament wins, only to flop at IEM Dallas to end things with a whimper. Their return from the player break at Esports World Cup was none too convincing either, with MOUZ dropping maps to FURIA and Sashi before being comfortably dispatched by Natus Vincere.

Dorian "⁠xertioN⁠" Berman and Ádám "⁠torzsi⁠" Torzsás were both relatively quiet in Dallas and Riyadh, and that is the main point of concern. That duo is the backbone of MOUZ, both aggressive players who shine in creating space and openings for themselves and the rest of the squad to thrive. Ludvig "⁠Brollan⁠" Brolin and Jimi "⁠Jimpphat⁠" Salo, considering their roles, can't be expected to carry MOUZ deep in tournaments, and they were the best performers at IEM Dallas and EWC respectively.

The other factor to consider is this: IEM Cologne is a prestigious arena LAN, and that is where MOUZ have struggled to translate their considerable potential into tangible success. It should also be expected that MOUZ have one eye on the Major later this year, and will be planning their season to peak at that time, rather than now. All of the factors above taken into consideration, and I fear that MOUZ will at absolute best manage a playoff showing in Cologne, when considering their position as the No. 3 ranked team and their potential, they should be challenging for the trophy.

Draik's pick to surprise: 9z

With the wind in their sails after a strong finish to the first half of the season, 9z head into Cologne as solid candidates to break through the play-in, while also offering the potential to contend with the fiercer competition in the main stage. Having spent nearly a month in Europe since the player break drew to a close, the young Latin American squad should be both prepared and hungry for what is set to be their biggest test yet.

Draik's pick to disappoint: Complexity

Although Complexity managed to redeem the end of the first half of 2024 with a win at ESL Challenger Jonkoping, the North American side seems to have resumed their slide into mediocrity now that the player break has come to a close. Given a gift in the form of an opening game versus ALTERNATE aTTaX, Complexity could still very well fall short in the play-in, slated to face either Falcons or Eternal Fire in their subsequent game.

Should Johnny "⁠JT⁠" Theodosiou’s men make their way past the play-in, one would still be hard-pressed to dream up a scenario where Complexity depart Cologne with a result worth writing home about considering the quality of opposition in attendance, a disappointment considering the glimpses of impressive form that the team displayed in the not-so-distant past.

stich's pick to surprise: 9z

The very nature of the question of a team that surprises almost presupposes an underdog team coming from the Cologne play-in stage — or maybe that's just my inherent gambler's addiction talking. There are a couple of candidates to go long on in the surprise department. All the Brazilian play-in teams could do damage as their region has shown promising signs of a resurgence this year. For NA, both Complexity and Liquid cannot be counted out and could easily make quarter-finals at minimum if they lock in.

But I'm giving this one to 9z. The rise of the South American mix into the top 10 is not yet finished this year, and they could very well catapult off their IEM Dallas success with another strong performance. It is at the least undeniable that this team is one that will come well prepared into the play-in and likely do their proper homework on every opponent going into the fight. The inchoate nature of CS2 is such that many teams that were not in the conversation previously can string upsets and rise in the ranks quickly. Call it just "vibes," but this is how I'm feeling on 9z. ¡Venga!, 9ziñeros!

stich's pick to disappoint: Natus Vincere

There are a couple deflated contenders that would do well here. Personally, FaZe, Astralis, and MOUZ come most to mind. However, an opinion writer lives and dies by their schizotypal sword of unfettered writing freedom, and thus a hot take is in order.

Natus Vincere, the world's current number one ranked team, will disappoint in Cologne. Their path to victory in the Esports World Cup was over various teams with their own current instabilities at play. And when you are called the world's number one team, expect everyone else to be gunning for your crown and anti-stratting you into oblivion.

Striker's pick to surprise: HEROIC

HEROIC have had the beginning of the new season put on a damper after it turned out that Abdul "⁠degster⁠" Gasanov would miss the BLAST Premier Fall Groups and at the very least the beginning of IEM Cologne.

But unlike in Copenhagen, the team now has a real stand-in — sorry, Eetu "⁠sAw⁠" Saha — lined up for Cologne. Volodymyr "⁠Woro2k⁠" Veletniuk will play with them until (if at all) degster can come in, which will give the European side a real fighting chance.

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Woro2k to stand in for HEROIC at IEM Cologne

The former Monte AWPer obviously won't be entirely up to date with HEROIC's playstyle and his role in it, but is arguably a more proven player in Counter-Strike 2 than degster and can have the same play-making flair, making him a worthy replacement. He'll also be hungry to show his worth after his benching, and, who knows, maybe even treat this as a potential job interview for HEROIC if degster's issues continue or he doesn't prove his mettle long term.

Striker's pick to disappoint: FaZe

Food for thought: If everyone expects you to fail, is it even a disappointment?

Such is the position FaZe find themselves in after their downturn at the end of the last season gave way to a rough beginning to the new season. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark, and the solution doesn't appear as simple as Robin "⁠ropz⁠" Kool getting out of a slump, even if he is the main player in the crosshairs at the moment.

The 'FaZe bullshit' machine seems to have run out of steam as karrigan and company have not beaten a top-five team in three months now, and have struggled against teams they would have previously shrugged off, like Ninjas in Pyjamas in their latest loss at the Fall Groups and FlyQuest in their seasonal opener at the Esports World Cup. This is not a resumé you want heading into the biggest event of the season outside of the Major, and it puts FaZe at the bottom of an unusually big pile of realistic contenders for the title.