Six key talking points ahead of IEM Cologne

With 24 teams looking to brawl their way to the IEM Cologne trophy, what are the crucial narratives fans should look out for?

The Cologne title fight is wide open

IEM Cologne 2024 is just around the corner and is set to kick off with the play-in on Wednesday, August 7. Sixteen teams are ready to start their campaign in the tournament's stacked first stage, which features nine top-20 sides and promises an exciting fight for a spot at the main event, where the world's top eight rosters await them.

With so many matches between teams in different stages of their lifespans, the event will no doubt serve up some unexpected results and twists. This article delves into some of the biggest storylines ahead of the circuit's entrance into the Cathedral of Counter-Strike.

Six title contenders in an era of parity

IEM Cologne promises yet another interesting clash among the top dogs. Six teams come in with realistic expectations about lifting the trophy, with the sextet sharing every Big Event win since HEROIC won the BLAST Premier Spring Final in June 2023.

Natus Vincere enter the event as the world's No. 1 team and will be looking to win their second tournament of the season after their Esports World Cup triumph, but their BLAST Fall Groups campaign wasn't stellar after two losses to the new Liquid.

Spirit fared better in Copenhagen and won three straight games to qualify despite barely scraping by Complexity, which prompted Myroslav "⁠zont1x⁠" Plakhotia to admit that the team isn't at its best. Despite the small sample size, Danil "⁠donk⁠" Kryshkovets seemed to have returned to his best at BLAST Groups and put up a rating 0.41 higher than in Riyadh, with the youngster needed in top form if Spirit are to win.

MOUZ will aim to win their first big arena event

MOUZ had a calmer entry into the season due to not being a BLAST partner and only have their EWC campaign to look back on. They were solid if unspectacular there, but will no doubt be motivated to get rid of their 'studio-LAN experts' moniker with a good performance in Cologne.

Next up on the list are Vitality, who are the only favorites without a title in 2024. Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut and company have been a constant playoff fixture that couldn't make the final step so far, and their two consecutive event wins at the end of 2023 seem a distant memory. With ZywOo still no doubt gunning for the number-one spot at the end of the year, a standout performance from their superstar might just give the European combine a title at last.

The new-look G2 are also in with a chance after having made an unexpected pair of roster changes in the off-season. Janusz "⁠Snax⁠" Pogorzelski has a solid grasp of the calling and Mario "⁠malbsMd⁠" Samayoa is proving to be a sharpshooter, meaning the team has only lost one series after the break — an EWC grand final loss to Natus Vincere. If the honeymoon period still lasts in time for Cologne, Nikola "⁠NiKo⁠" Kovač and company are in with a chance of a second consecutive Cologne trophy.

Last but not least on the list of favorites are FaZe. While it might be easy to overlook them due to their recent form, Finn "⁠karrigan⁠" Andersen's troops have shown time and time again that they come alive at the most important moments. If FaZe can click early at the event, their experience can propel them to an unexpected title victory.

Outside of the main favorites, Virtus.pro, Astralis, and Liquid have all proven they can at least upset the big dogs and play the role of spoiler, even if they might not have the biggest chance of the trophy.

Can the new kids on the block cause some chaos?

Outside of the usual favorites, several teams will be looking to claim their spot among the world's elite. The MongolZ have recently entered the top 10 in the world rankings for the first time in their history after a fantastic run of form that included wins at MESA Nomadic Masters and YaLLa Compass. They missed out on the playoffs at EWC, but their form makes them one of the favorites to make it through the play-in.

Can 9z repeat their IEM Dallas form?

9z are another team in good shape. Their breakout semi-final finish at IEM Dallas, where they beat MOUZ and Vitality, and a victory at the FireLEAGUE Global Finals, give them a solid chance to upset. The South Americans haven't had many chances to showcase their skill since then and should make it to the group stage at least, with their efforts hinging on the form of European import Antonio "⁠MartinezSa⁠" Martinez.

Teams aiming to change their fortunes

On the other side of the spectrum, several teams will be looking to break out of a rut in Cologne. Despite the season starting less than a month ago we have already seen some damning interviews by karrigan and Jonathan "⁠EliGE⁠" Jablonowski on their team's form, but they aren't the only ones feeling the pressure.

Complexity showed a better face at BLAST Groups and almost took down Spirit, but their Jekyll and Hyde nature showed up once again as they lost to a HEROIC side with Eetu "⁠sAw⁠" Saha on the server and narrowly beat OG with a stand-in.

EliGE's Complexity come into Cologne in underwhelming form

EliGE gave an honest overview of the situation after their EWC exit, too. "It's tiring because we haven't been getting better with these types of mistakes, they're too frequent and this is how you lose games," he said after the loss to M80. "Our comms are fine at the beginning of the round and then everything breaks down really quickly. We lose rounds that we shouldn't and give away a lot of advantages."

FaZe are in a similar boat, with team captain karrigan speaking to HLTV ahead of BLAST Spring Groups and admitting the team lacks the killer instinct and confidence they became known for.

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karrigan: "We lack the killer instinct we had in '22 and '23 in big games"

Falcons and Virtus.pro are also not in the best shape, as the two teams have never gotten going after their latest roster changes. Falcons have improved slightly with Peter "⁠dupreeh⁠" Rasmussen on the roster but are still falling way short of their lofty ambitions, while Virtus.pro are yet to solve the style clash since Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov's signing.

New teams enter the crucible

Two new rosters that didn't appear at the Esports World Cup are Liquid and BIG, whose only games after the summer break came at the lower-stakes BLAST Fall Groups.

Liquid passed their first test with aplomb as they took down the No. 1 team in the world Natus Vincere twice and qualified for the Fall Final. Doubts over Russel "⁠Twistzz⁠" Van Dulken's in-game-leading credentials have been at least somewhat quashed, and his fragging power remained a force to be reckoned with as he averaged a 1.20 rating.

Roland "⁠ultimate⁠" Tomkowiak showed a high ceiling on the AWP despite this only being his second career LAN tournament, and starred in the qualification series decider against Natus Vincere with a 1.66 rating, while Mareks "⁠YEKINDAR⁠" Gaļinskis seemed to have began a resurgence with a couple of standout maps.

Twistzz took to IGLing like a duck to water

BIG had a rougher time in Copenhagen but did show glimpses of their potential with a win against Virtus.pro, during which Florian "⁠syrsoN⁠" Rische had one of his most impactful performances in a while. Their addition of Rigon "⁠rigoN⁠" Gashi is still a work in progress, but the Swiss rifler had his best performance in a BIG jersey against Natus Vincere, where he was far and away the best player on the team.

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First look: How did new teams fare ahead of IEM Cologne?

FURIA leading the Brazilian charge

Four Brazilian teams will be present at IEM Cologne, with all four starting their road in the play-in. FURIA will lead the charge for their country after their encouraging debut with Felipe "⁠skullz⁠" Medeiros at the Esports World Cup, where they progressed through the resurrection stage and gave MOUZ a run for their money in the quarters.

Kaike "⁠KSCERATO⁠" Cerato and Yuri "⁠yuurih⁠" Santos were both impressive in Riyadh, with skullz providing some standout moments as the team's third star. While it's unclear if this lineup will finally give Brazil a tier-one presence again, the early signs have been encouraging.

In worse news for Brazilian fans, three of their teams have been put in the same bracket. FURIA will meet Imperial in the opening round, with paiN facing off against Liquid in the other match. With Liquid off to a great start, it's difficult to envision the Brazilians avoiding the lower bracket early on.

Is skullz the answer for FURIA?

paiN and Imperial are also making their tier-one debuts with their new signings. Santino "⁠try⁠" Rigal will make his LAN debut with Imperial after starring in several online qualifiers, where he averaged a 1.21 rating, while João "⁠snow⁠" Vinicius has averaged a 1.06 rating for paiN after adjusting to new, more passive roles.

Brazil's fourth representatives are MIBR, who have been in a rotten run of form of late and won nine rounds across three maps at EWC. They will meet HEROIC in the first round and also have 9z and 3DMAX on their side of the bracket.

Can we get the top 16 teams at the main event?

In an interesting turn of events, the world's top eight teams have secured direct invites to the Cologne group stage, with the 9-16th ranked teams all starting their campaign in the play-in. Having the world's top 16 teams present would require a lack of upsets in the notoriously surprise-heavy play-in, however, even though upsets should be less common in theory after ESL removed the opening best-of-one matches.

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ESL removes BO1 format from IEM Cologne 2024

Another problem will be the fact that Falcons face off against Eternal Fire in the first round of the tournament, meaning one top-16 team will find itself in the lower bracket early on. 3DMAX, MIBR, and BIG, are the three closest teams in terms of ranking and should therefore have the highest chance of upsetting the apple cart, but are far from the only ones capable of causing an upset.

Other than that, the seeding has been relatively kind this time around, so an event featuring just the top 16 teams might just be on the cards for the first time in history. The closest we came in recent times was IEM Katowice 2021, where we had 14 out of the top 16 present after Complexity (No. 8) and fnatic (No. 12) were eliminated in the play-in.