What Vitality can learn from fallen Major favorites

Counter-Strike history has given us plenty of examples of favorites who fell short at the Major. What can Vitality learn from their experiences?

StarLadder Berlin Major 2019 - Liquid

There is one instance in CS history, of a team heading into a Major as heavy favorites, that closely mirrors Vitality's situation like no other. In 2019, Liquid went on the type of run that most can only dream of, hitting a red-hot streak of form that saw them rack up 23 match victories back to back as they collected six Big Event wins on the bounce.

Liquid's rivals for the title just didn't seem capable of matching the flowstate Liquid were hitting at every tournament. Vitality were, funnily enough, the second-ranked team in the world, but by virtue of consistent top-fours, the odd second-place finish to Liquid, and tournament wins in lesser events where Liquid were absent. Astralis were experiencing a stutter in their era, the "BLASTralis" aberration, form dipping amidst problems with burnout and the skipping of non-BLAST events.

The Swiss stage of the Berlin Major was a nightmare for Liquid. A domestic matchup with NRG proved to be a banana peel, and Liquid slipped on it and fell to the 1-1 bracket, before Dzhami "⁠Jame⁠" Ali's upstart AVANGAR squad left them staring in the face of elimination. Nick "⁠nitr0⁠" Cannella and his troops may have recovered to qualify for the playoffs, but the damage was already done.

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As a result of Liquid's cold start to the event, they were handed a nightmare matchup with Astralis in the quarter-finals. The Danes were hungry to prove themselves after the criticism that had been levelled at them in recent times, and they took advantage of Liquid's stumbling form to eliminate the tournament favorites before they really got going in the arena.

Lesson: Fight hard in the Swiss stage

Take the Swiss stage seriously. It may be tempting to look at the format and think there isn't much of an issue with dropping a game, as there is plenty of time to ramp up and secure a playoff berth.

But taking a top seeding into the playoff draw is utterly vital. It can guarantee a favorable bracket and an easier quarter-final matchup that allows you to work yourself into top form ahead of the big-ticket games in the later stages. Losing in the Swiss stage could lump Vitality with a nightmare playoff run.

DreamHack Winter 2013 - Ninjas in Pyjamas

When searching through the annals of CS history, it doesn't take long to come across a Major where the favorites did not go on to win the title. In fact, the very first CS:GO Major, DreamHack Winter 2013, served as the scene for one of the most significant underdog Major runs in the history of the game.

There were two clear top dogs heading into the Major in Stockholm: VeryGames and Ninjas in Pyjamas. Ninjas in Pyjamas were a powerhouse side in their prime, only relatively recently removed from their legendary 87-0 streak, and had a string of top placings under their belt heading into the tournament on home soil. It was VeryGames, however, who arguably began the event as marginal favorites, having elevated themselves just ahead of their Swedish rivals in recent months by winning five of their last six tournaments and going 6-1 in maps in their head-to-head against Ninjas in Pyjamas.

fnatic, by contrast, were barely considered a dark horse. The Swedes were a decent team, evidenced by a recent second-place finish amongst a solid field at MSI Beat it! 2013, but not a likely candidate for trophy wins. They had, in fact, only just made a change to their lineup, swapping Andreas "⁠MODDII⁠" Fridh out for a new IGL in the form of Markus "⁠pronax⁠" Wallsten. They were a young team who seemed short of the level required to go all the way at a Major.

In surprising fashion, fnatic made a run all the way to the final, their starlet AWPer Jesper "⁠JW⁠" Wecksell leading the way as they dropped a single map on their way to the championship match. There they would face countrymen Ninjas in Pyjamas, who overcame their nemesis VeryGames in the semi-finals and seemed certain to secure the trophy.

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Devilwalk: "jw is one of a kind"

fnatic were in form but had stomped their way through weaker opposition to get to the final, whereas Ninjas in Pyjamas had to navigate a trickier run that included the best team in the world at that moment. HLTV's preview of the final went so far as to say it was "fully expected" that Ninjas in Pyjamas would secure the trophy and cap off their early dominance of CS:GO.

The script was ripped to shreds by fnatic. Instead of folding they flourished, matching Ninjas in Pyjamas blow for blow across the first two maps ahead of a Train decider. This was surely where fnatic would fall though, as Ninjas in Pyjamas were the best team in the world on the map, with HLTV calling it a "tall order" for fnatic to get close on the map ahead of the final. Up stepped JW, who posted an utterly sublime performance to batter Ninjas in Pyjamas 16-2 and secure the first Major in CS:GO's history.

Lesson: Underestimate no one

Vitality can learn a vitally important lesson from DreamHack Winter 2013, one that is thrown into sharp relief when you consider the fact their most dangerous rival for the Austin Major trophy, Falcons, are already eliminated: underestimate no one, even beyond your closest rivals. Aurora and The MongolZ have been on the verge of a breakout event for some time, and who knows what other side might rise to the occasion and elevate their game for the tournament.

A Major can do strange things to a team both positive and negative, as we have seen already with Legacy and Falcons respectively, and Vitality should be prepared for stiff resistance at every step along their way to the trophy.

DreamHack Winter 2014 - fnatic

By the time the fourth CS:GO Major came around, DreamHack Winter 2014, fnatic had powered up to become the best team in the world by some margin. Olof "⁠olofmeister⁠" Kajbjer and Freddy "⁠KRIMZ⁠" Johansson had arrived from LGB with a monumental bang, rifling up a storm to form a brutal and efficient rifle duo to provide a foil for JW's hyper-aggressive AWPing. This is the core that would go on to cement themselves as one of CS:GO's greatest, and the back half of 2014 was the hot streak that announced it on the world stage.

Almost right after fnatic's upgrade they were going deep in tournaments, including taking second at the first Major of the year, ESL One Cologne, and with a little time to power up, the Swedes were winning tournaments for fun and running rings around the rest of the teams in the world.

LDLC were the world's second-best side, but had recently fallen short to fnatic at ESWC and Fragbite Masters Finals by some margin. Ninjas in Pyjamas were a slowly fading giant, with underperformer Robin "⁠Fifflaren⁠" Johansson having only just departed the squad. Mikail "⁠Maikelele⁠" Bill was playing on a trial basis and Christopher "⁠GeT_RiGhT⁠" Alesund was on a decline, leaving the Ninjas short of their star player's full firepower.

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LDLC file protest over fnatic boost

The tournament would go down in history for the wrong reasons: The infamous Olofboost debacle that occurred on Overpass in the quarter-final between fnatic and LDLC caused an absolute uproar in the community. fnatic utilized a controversial pixelboost, one that they had discovered before the tournament and intentionally kept secret to avoid it being banned. The boost was so powerful it brought them back from 3-13 down to win the map, but the utter outrage it caused led first to DreamHack saying the map would be replayed, before fnatic withdrew from the event under the intense pressure.

What the boost should not detract from is the fact that LDLC were battering fnatic before the boost came into play. After trading maps, LDLC were utterly dominant on the decider, and well on their way to winning the match. Regardless of fnatic's later withdrawal from the tournament, LDLC would almost certainly have won the series had the boost not been utilized.

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LDLC beat NiP to win DH Winter

Lesson: Past performance is no guarantee of future results

The first lesson to learn is fairly straightforward and shouldn't be a surprise to anyone: don't use a dodgy exploit that you clearly realize is likely to be disallowed.

More importantly, and closely related to the lesson to be learned from DreamHack Winter 2013, it is not to underestimate rivals you have beaten before. Vitality could easily find themselves up against MOUZ in the business end of the Austin Major, and could be forgiven for expecting to repeat the victories they have managed to achieve time after time this year. That is a dangerous trap that Vitality must not fall into.

ELEAGUE Major 2018 - FaZe

Sorry to bring this one up, FaZe fans. FaZe were not the No. 1 team in the world as they prepared for their ELEAGUE Major 2018 campaign, but they were favorites.

Roster lock rules mean that SK, the world No. 1, had to use João "⁠felps⁠" Vasconcellos as a stand-in for the Major instead of Ricardo "⁠boltz⁠" Prass. Astralis were not yet in the swing of their era and had only just seen Nicolai "⁠device⁠" Reedtz return from a medical absence, and were using Peter "⁠dupreeh⁠" Rasmussen as their AWPer. These facts left the field wide open for FaZe's outrageously stacked superteam to stroll in and collect a Major trophy, which would have been an important milestone in the careers of Ladislav "⁠GuardiaN⁠" Kovács and Nikola "⁠NiKo⁠" Kovač.

If FaZe began this Major as slight favorites, they were overwhelming favorites by the time they made it into the grand final. The team was in prime form, with all the stars firing on all cylinders as they swept past everyone in their path, dropping not a single map on their way to the final. Their opponents in the final, meanwhile, had almost exited the Swiss stage with a 0-2 record, being forced to battle back to make the playoffs. Cloud9 had not convinced in their semi-final bout with the weakened SK, whilst FaZe had grown game by game in the event and battered Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev's Natus Vincere in the semis.

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Cloud9 beat FaZe to win ELEAGUE Major Boston

Of course, we all remember what happened, as FaZe suffered from the worst grand final choke in Major history. They were 13-8 and then 15-11 up in the deciding map, only to squander both advantages and see the trophy slip through their fingers, granting Cloud9 and NA their first-ever Major victory. It would eventually transpire that this robbed GuardiaN of the Major his career so richly deserved, and NiKo may yet go on to finish his career Major-less.

Lesson: Never take your foot off the gas

The players who bore FaZe jerseys in the final of this Major will be able to painfully attest to the lesson Vitality can learn from their mistakes: Never take your foot off the gas. FaZe had four championship points to secure their Major trophy and squandered them, showing that no matter the opposition, you have to fight tooth and nail for every single kill, round and map when crunch time arrives in Counter-Strike's marquee events.