Stat Check: Falcons triple up on Openers for another gambit at Vitality's crown

What's better than one aggressive, high headshot percentage rifler? Three.

Falcons did not lose at the Austin Major because of firepower. Their stacked squad was more than good enough to defeat B8, Lynn Vision, and MIBR off of individuals alone.

That they didn't cannot be put on Emil "⁠Magisk⁠" Reif's door: Ilya "⁠m0NESY⁠" Osipov's bad day one got them in trouble, Nikola "⁠NiKo⁠" Kovač disappeared on the Inferno decider with MIBR, and the team got worse the more practice they had under the guidance of Danny "⁠zonic⁠" Sørensen and Damjan "⁠kyxsan⁠" Stoilkovski.

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You can even take aim at Lars Robl, for many the greatest sports psychologist in Counter-Strike history, such was the extent of the team's mental collapse.

Cutting your support player isn't going to change any of that. But will adding Maxim "⁠kyousuke⁠" Lukin?

It's hard not to be excited about the 17-year-old's step-up to tier one. Long have the forums waited for this moment. He has a 1.30 rating in 2025, 100 firepower, and 122.5 damage per round win. Firepower may not have been the only reason Falcons lost in Texas, but would they have won with even more firepower?

Of course, this move was long in the making. Falcons had tracked kyousuke for months and agreed on a deal in May. This was happening, Austin or no Austin.

That adds a complexity to any discussion around the collapse at the Major. Falcons may have been the number two team going in, but they were still a 'dead' one. Players knew it was their last event together. Sometimes that is okay, like G2 in Shanghai, but usually it is more difficult to perform at your maximum.

So let's try and put Austin out of our minds: What does adding kyousuke do to the team that came so close to beating Vitality in Melbourne?

First of all, it blows up the rifle structure they had before on the T side. René "⁠TeSeS⁠" Madsen, NiKo, and kyousuke are all openers, even if they are different styles of aggressive riflers. TeSeS is more of a traditional entry, a soldier, NiKo is a measured playmaker, and kyousuke is a zoomer who has yet to develop the decision-making of a true tier one player.

We already have an idea how Falcons can solve this puzzle. TeSeS is only here because his form was too good for him to be cut (the plan was originally to keep Magisk) so we can shift the Dane to some of Magisk's roles. G2 also signed a high-skill zoomer to play alongside NiKo, and NiKo kept his spots. We can expect the same for kyousuke. Which might look something like this:

It's tricky to predict, so expect us to be wrong on a fair few of these. But the gist is this: TeSeS to primary lurk, with kyousuke and NiKo sharing duties as the spacetakers. NiKo could give more spots away, like on Dust2, where he would be a great Upper B player, or he could give fewer away. Time will tell.

We could make a song and dance about this clash; TeSeS is too aggressive to be a passive lurker. Spirit didn't think kyousuke could play with Danil "⁠donk⁠" Kryshkovets, so why can he with NiKo?

But in 2025, starting positions on the T side matter less than how your in-game leader uses your rifle trio. TeSeS will be on his own a lot, that is true. But they will not expect him to turn into Robin "⁠ropz⁠" Kool overnight.

In addition, Falcons haven't had a true lurker anyway; Magisk was the flex for Andreas "⁠Xyp9x⁠" Højsleth and Lotan "⁠Spinx⁠" Giladi when he was at his best. He was probably as uncomfortable as TeSeS, and it's the 24-year-old who showed the best form this season.

kyousuke will have room for his own plays, like Mario "⁠malbsMd⁠" Samayoa did on G2 when he had to undergo what was a full role transformation on paper. When malbsMd played with NiKo he had a 1.20 T rating and a 1.04 CT rating, despite changing his spots completely on both sides.

So we expect this to be okay. kyxsan can call around the more trade-heavy kyousuke and allow NiKo to operate as a lone wolf during his slow, solo, takes of map control. TeSeS has the personality and drive to learn a new role, even if he won't be entirely comfortable in some defaults.

One CT headache is spared, because kyousuke played in TeSeS' secondary rotator roles on Spirit Academy, not NiKo's primary star ones.

That means we are not predicting huge changes for anyone except TeSeS, who played plenty of these roles in HEROIC (he was even the B anchor on Mirage in the Casper "⁠cadiaN⁠" Møller iteration). It is true that there is also no Rasmus "⁠sjuush⁠" Beck in Falcons, but this is the only way TeSeS survives the summer.

It is also true that TeSeS, Falcons, and anyone with a brain knows that he's next on the chopping block. If they do not click immediately, there's an easy answer: "We didn't have a natural lurker-anchor."

And off Falcons go to the shops again. A Valeriy "⁠b1t⁠" Vakhovskiy? Jimi "⁠Jimpphat⁠" Salo? Oldřich "⁠PR⁠" Nový? Myroslav "⁠zont1x⁠" Plakhotia, if Spirit move on?

There are plenty of great specialists out there if TeSeS is to become the scapegoat. This writer's expectation was that Austin would be an excuse for Falcons to make a double move and remove both Danes this summer.

The copy in their social media announcement of kyousuke, "the lineup is locked," implies otherwise, but should opportunities arise in the market, Falcons would be fools not to try, even this summer. Otherwise, you risk wasting another six months of NiKo and m0NESY's prime.

If the team thought the pressure was high in Austin, imagine Budapest. zonic cannot survive forever: A fourth Major cycle failure is enough to dismiss even the most successful coach of all time.

NiKo has been good in 2025 but there is evidence for a decline from his sky-high peak after turning 28: 0.77 KPR in 2022, 0.76 in 2023, 0.74 in 2024, and 0.73 so far in 2025. It's a slow fall but it is one all the same, and the wait for a Major trophy will only become more agonizing as time goes on.

kyousuke is the solution to this, just not in the way you might immediately think. His firepower might guide them to new heights next season, but will it be enough to take down Vitality? We're not so sure.

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Instead, kyousuke should be seen as a future-proofing signing. Falcons know NiKo is 28, they know every organization in Counter-Strike was looking at kyousuke, and they have got their man early.

Real Madrid were so annoyed they didn't sign Neymar that they ended up signing any teenage Brazilian forward with a bit of ability. With Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior, that approach worked. Falcons kyousuke is the same principle: If not donk, we'll use our infinite resources to get the next donk.

A kyousuke-m0NESY duo should be enough to keep Falcons in trophy contention for many years to come. Adding the 17-year-old wunderkind will improve the team now but it is not a short-term move. In the years to come, NiKo might take up in-game leadership full-time, allowing kyousuke into his star roles to create one of the most stacked map control trios of all time.

But let's park that. kyxsan is one of the most promising young captains himself, and there is no suggestion NiKo would want that any time soon regardless.

If we evaluate this move on a short-term basis, two things are obvious. One: Falcons need one more move before the rifling roles are set and everyone is comfortable. Two: The team are taking an opposite approach to Vitality.

Both Vitality and Falcons are super-orgs with huge resources. But Vitality have used theirs cleverly, securing Magisk and ropz on free transfers. When they needed a better lurker than Kévin "⁠misutaaa⁠" Rabier, the money was there to buy Spinx.

The other key difference is this: Vitality are all about signing specialist players who take up low bandwidth, and (crucially) fit into the roster comfortably.

William "⁠mezii⁠" Merriman had a tough time at the start of Vitality and even seemed to suffer a bit from imposter syndrome. But he has grown into one of the best support players in the world, a jack of all trades that has become part of a team that won seven trophies in a row.

Shahar "⁠flameZ⁠" Shushan is unique in the sense that he is one of the very best aggressive riflers in the world without having much freedom on the T side. NiKo, Dorian "⁠xertioN⁠" Berman, Mihai "⁠iM⁠" Ivan, and Ismailcan "⁠XANTARES⁠" Dörtkardeş are playmakers, taking map control solo and playing for advantageous fights. flameZ is Dan "⁠apEX⁠" Madesclaire's soldier, charging into executes and through smokes at his captain's command.

Even ropz, as tenured as he is, is more than happy to take 'bad' positions like B on Dust2, understanding that his passive playstyle and unique skillset make him a fantastic site player. He doesn't mind if he gets fewer ecos; he knows his status as an overpowered anchor wins the team tournaments.

TeSeS has this mentality but he won't have the comfort Vitality's trio have in their roles. The immaturity kyousuke displayed on his streams is partially to be expected from a 17-year-old whose life is video games, and he will need to grow up fast. In the server, he will be the third star (at least initially) after always being the first. That will take getting used to, as well.

Vitality built a premium jigsaw where every piece seamlessly fits already. They didn't need to spend time sawing off edges to make a player fit, and that's why it worked instantly.

Falcons, meanwhile, will need an adaptation period to get TeSeS embedded as an anchor, kyousuke acclimated to tier one, and also for m0NESY to become part of the stratbook given how late in the season he signed.

The firepower, and future-proofing, advantage from kyousuke means it is a gamble worth taking. But make no mistake: This move is still another high-stakes Falcons gamble.

And the stake is more than just kyousuke's supposed seven-figure buyout. It is the future of zonic, TeSeS, and kyxsan. It is the fate of NiKo's (and m0NESY's) Major curse. It's not the organization that will suffer if things go wrong.

That's a lot of pressure on a 17-year-old. Even donk had 2023 to get used to LANs and tier 1.5 matches before he exploded in 2024. m0NESY's debut in 2022 was immense but there were still growing pains in the first six months when it came to rotations on maps like Nuke.

Falcons are, ultimately, a win-now project that just bought a win-later player. So how will this story end? With Major glory? Or another trip to the transfer market?

If we've learned anything about sportswashing projects like PSG or Manchester City, the answer for Falcons is probably both.

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