Four storylines of ESL Pro League Group C

There are four top teams with everything to prove as we head into the third group of ESL Pro League.

The group stage of ESL Pro League is past the halfway mark, and plenty of absorbing storylines have already played out. G2 saw their win streak broken, Cloud9 instilled some confidence in their new lineup, and MOUZ redeemed their underwhelming Katowice performance. Group C comes with yet more fascinating narratives, with even the less-favoured teams presenting interesting scenarios: how will 00NATION perform without Epitacio "⁠TACO⁠" de Melo, and how will Rooster fare in their first international outing? The main storylines however boil down to four top-20 teams who have everything to prove.

FaZe were the best team of 2022 yet have been unable to fully shake off the malaise that engulfed them mid-way through last year. Do they still have a higher gear to discover and cement themselves once again as a great team, or are they merely a solid top five squad? Can Ninjas in Pyjamas challenge for titles with their new lineup? Can Vitality overcome playing with a stand-in to prove their early season form was down to more than a generous schedule? Are OG a threat without Nemanja "⁠nexa⁠" Isaković, or will they struggle for direction sans their leader?

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00NATION to field n9xtz in place of TACO for ESL Pro League

FaZe need to prove they are still a great team

Date	Matches
ESL Pro League Season 17
08/03/2023	paiN 16:00 Ninjas in Pyjamas	Match
08/03/2023	FaZe 16:00 Rooster	Match
08/03/2023	OG 19:30 00NATION	Match
08/03/2023	Grayhound 19:30 Vitality	Match

Great, or merely good?

Obviously we all remember the first half of 2022 and the tear that FaZe went on. They picked up a plethora of trophies, cemented themselves as the best team of the year before it was even close to done, and put themselves on the brink of an Intel Grand Slam win. Fast forward to March of 2023 and FaZe are merely the fourth ranked team in the world and were knocked out of IEM Katowice, the most recent LAN event, prior to the playoffs. The difference 12 months can make is stark and no one knows that better than FaZe.

So far this year we have seen moments where FaZe look something like their old selves, clutches abound as the star players frag out and Finn "⁠karrigan⁠" Andersen calls potent T sides, but we have also seen them defeated 2-0 in convincing fashion by G2 and drop a close 2-1 series to Liquid. That would suggest a team near the elite squads of the moment but short of them, however there are mitigating factors, the most notable of which is the fact they had to play the BLAST Premier Spring Groups with a stand-in. One could certainly argue this affected their preparation for IEM Katowice, and as tenuous as that may seem, it is an argument that deserves consideration.

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Liquid eliminate reigning champions FaZe from IEM Katowice

1.09 rating

ropz in 2023

When you examine the form of the European superteam more closely, some factors stand out clearly. Robin "⁠ropz⁠" Kool is not in the best shape, particularly when compared to last year, with his rating sitting at 1.09 for 2023 compared to 1.14 for 2022. Some of that slack is being picked up by Russel "⁠Twistzz⁠" Van Dulken and Helvijs "⁠broky⁠" Saukants, but FaZe are bound to be a less potent team when one prong of their triple threat is blunted. There is also an interesting trend developing with their opening kills, namely that Twistzz is attempting a lot more compared to last year. Perhaps FaZe are trying to put a little bit more oomph into their entry work, and considering Twistzz’s excellent performances recently it is a trend that is likely to continue.

Finally, the map pool needs consideration: FaZe have only been tested on five maps, and only their Inferno has been completely convincing. Yet are FaZe to be pushed to either Vertigo (their usual ban last year) or Anubis in 2023, and it is virtually certain that they will need to incorporate one of the two into their map pool if they want to challenge for titles. With such a small sample size it is tough to say exactly where FaZe’s strengths lie this year, especially so considering two of their five map losses have come against G2, but EPL will certainly help to answer the question.

It is inarguable that FaZe are no longer the best team in the world. The question remains: exactly how good are they? It is a question that is difficult to answer, but their run in this ESL Pro League group will go a long way to providing some evidence, particularly considering the range of caliber of teams they face off against. The one thing they are potentially lacking in the group is a truly elite opponent as the closest approximation to such, Vitality, is playing without the main roster. If FaZe want to convince that they are currently world No. 1 contenders, winning this group is a must. Anything less will lend credence to the idea that they are a good team, but not great.

Are the Ninjas poised to strike?

Group C of the ESL Pro League represents Ninjas in Pyjamas’s first chance to take a serious crack at things with Kristian "⁠k0nfig⁠" Wienecke in the roster in place of Hampus "⁠hampus⁠" Poser. Yes, the Dane did take part in IEM Katowice with the squad, but he was brought in at drastically short notice and there was little time for practice. Regardless Ninjas in Pyjamas still managed to make their way through the Play-In and even take a map off Outsiders in the main event.

NIP will finally get their first real shot with k0nfig in the roster

Despite the less-than-ideal circumstances Ninjas in Pyjamas showed a proof of concept in Poland, they showed off flashes of promise and little nuggets of brilliance that suggest this roster has some legs. As mentioned previously the team picked up some solid wins, one of them a series victory over Spirit, which confirms they can at least be competitive. Their new AWPer Daniil "⁠headtr1ck⁠" Valitov was utterly lethal in two of the three series they played in Katowice, providing further evidence of the lineup’s potential and promise. Of course it was not enough to be confident of a title-worthy Ninjas in Pyjamas, but it was enough to make them a team worth keeping an eye on in the immediate future.

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k0nfig joins NIP as hampus goes on break

There are of course question marks associated with the current iteration of Ninjas in Pyjamas, and one of the biggest is surprisingly Ludvig "⁠Brollan⁠" Brolin. The young Swede has, for years now, been touted as the shining light of the Swedish scene, the heir to the throne vacated by the likes of Olof "⁠olofmeister⁠" Kajbjer. Brollan did once seem to be firmly on the path to fulfilling this promise, as evidenced by his HLTV top 20 placements in 2019 and 2020, but in recent times he has not quite shown the same level, with this year in particular starting poorly: the rifler is rated 0.99 for 2023 so far, although that is in the context of being one of the more aggressive players. With the roster now settled and with k0nfig there to fill the space-taking roles it is time for Brollan to return to his peak level once again, and show that he can be the dominant rifler that he was predicted to be.

Of course the form of Brollan is not the only question hovering over Ninjas in Pyjamas. How well the ever-mercurial k0nfig will be incorporated, whether or not headtr1ck can continue to impress, and how the playstyle will measure up are all going to be answered over the coming week, and we will finally have an idea of where Ninjas in Pyjamas stand in the hierarchy of top-tier CS. Have all the high-profile transfers and roster maneuvers of recent years finally produced a Ninjas in Pyjamas squad that can compete regularly for titles? When this group concludes, we will be closer to an answer.

Firepower vital to success

The year thus far has been a success for Vitality, there are no two ways about it: they strolled to three victories at the BLAST Premier Spring Groups and made top-six at Katowice. Yet when you examine the team’s work more closely, things aren’t quite as rosy as they may appear on the surface. Their most impressive victory since the player break came against a rusty HEROIC at BLAST, and the Danes utterly decimated Vitality in the rematch at IEM Katowice. The other top team they have played is Liquid and the North Americans bested them, albeit in close fashion. Some of their wins have come against sides with asterisks next to their name, such as an Astralis debuting Christian "⁠Buzz⁠" Andersen, with another coming against the perennially underwhelming Evil Geniuses. They have beaten much of what has been put in front of them, but what has been put in front of them has often been there for the taking.

JACKZ will temporarily fill dupreeh's shoes for at least the group stage of ESL Pro League

Now consider the fact that Vitality will be attending at least the group stage of Pro League with Audric "⁠JACKZ⁠" Jug standing in, and it seems prudent that qualification should be the only goal for the team. Whilst Peter "⁠dupreeh⁠" Rasmussen has not been a star player for Vitality and they have had at least some practice time with JACKZ, there will be an inevitable lowering of the bar for Vitality heading into their campaign in Malta. There are still plenty of question marks around the squad, but it is doubtful that we will get many answers from this Pro League group. The one area that may have some light shed on it is the Vitality map pool: they are yet to play Ancient or Anubis this year, which will probably change at Pro League, and their sample size of maps played this year will grow, giving further indications of their strengths and weaknesses.

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Vitality confirm JACKZ will stand in for dupreeh at ESL Pro League

There is reason to be optimistic about the boys in black and yellow moving forward, particularly when assessing the form of the players individually. Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut is at a 1.34 rating for the year and on course to challenge for the mantle of world No. 1 again, as is to be expected at this point, and Lotan "⁠Spinx⁠" Giladi and Emil "⁠Magisk⁠" Reif have also been pulling their weight in the fragging department, rated at 1.17 and 1.08 respectively. With the weight of expectation lifted as a result of the stand-in situation it would be encouraging to see the individual prowess of Vitality continue to flourish, and the firepower that would result in should be enough to see the squad through this group.

A team without their captain

You’d be hard pressed to find someone who has much expectation beyond qualification for OG heading into this group of ESL Pro League. Not only are they a squad that seems to perennially reside in the category of ‘average’ when it comes to the upper echelons of competitive Counter-Strike, but they are operating without their fulltime in-game leader due to nexa’s recent step back from the lineup. This of course tempers expectation, and really the eyes on OG in this event will be focusing on what their gameplay looks like with a stand-in IGL holding the reins, as this will be their roster for the remainder of the Paris Major cycle.

niko returns temporarily to the OG roster, this time as an IGL

It’s not like OG are a bad team or have bad players, quite the contrary. Shahar "⁠flameZ⁠" Shushan is a superb aggressive presence, Abdul "⁠degster⁠" Gasanov one of the premier AWPers in the world, and Adam "⁠NEOFRAG⁠" Zouhar and Maciej "⁠F1KU⁠" Miklas are promising youngsters. They just have seemed unable historically to kick on beyond the odd flash of promise, and with nexa sitting at home it is reasonable to presume OG will be operating short of their peak level in Malta.

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nexa steps back from OG's active lineup temporarily

The quality of the calling will be under the most scrutiny when they kick off their Pro League campaign, as it has been Nikolaj "⁠niko⁠" Kristensen who has taken up the reins since he took up his temporary position. niko does not have much of a history as leader, but neither does anyone else on the team. flameZ has historically been very vocal for the team in-game and has said in a previous interview that he already calls a lot on CT side, so perhaps he is able to provide support to niko to lessen his burden. In any case this group will tell us whether or not OG can be a serious threat without nexa's leadership. Is the talent enough, or will they be rudderless without their captain?