Stat check: How will the new NAVI set up?

The Ukrainian organization have boldly opted to switch to an English-speaking lineup, so here is an early look at their positions and possible style.

Natus Vincere has been on a long journey since their Major victory at PGL Stockholm 2021. Their potential dynasty was cut short when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began and only one trophy, BLAST Premier Spring Final 2022, has arrived in the cabinet since. Kirill "⁠Boombl4⁠" Mikhailov departed in May 2022, after which Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov took on the captaincy while Viktor "⁠sdy⁠" Orudzhev and then Andrii "⁠npl⁠" Kukharskyi filled in as the team's fifth.

Amid the changes, the core four fraggers never quite clicked in the same way they had in 2021: electroNic's individual strength was harmed by becoming IGL; Valeriy "⁠b1t⁠" Vakhovskiy's inconsistency led to some role changes; and Ilya "⁠Perfecto⁠" Zalutskiy could not provide the firepower in b1t's old roles to keep Natus Vincere at the very top. Even Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev, usually so peerless, had a down period by his standards.

So NAVI pulled the plug and the team will go into the next Major as an international team, keeping only s1mple, b1t, and skipper Andrey "⁠B1ad3⁠" Gorodenskiy from the old project. Drastic though the change is, there really would not have been a better time to do so.

There is an eight month runway until the next Major and with Natus Vincere's uneasiness in dealing with Russian organizations turning West for new talent only became more and more appealing. There are also rumours that it was electroNic and Perfecto's decision to leave rather than a removal, something that would have forced Natus Vincere's hand.

The new side — with the additions of Aleksi "⁠Aleksib⁠" Virolainen, Justinas "⁠jL⁠" Lekavicius, and Mihai "⁠iM⁠" Ivan — will have plenty of time to improve on the macro and micro of the game, as well as the blending of their four different cultures. Only b1t has not communicated in English before, but there will be a settling in period for all five players as old teams' strat books, positions, and maps are blended into one. That eight month runway should significantly lessen the impact of those growing pains.

In-game and on paper, once all the players are comfortable, it is an appealing proposition. iM was the biggest revelation of the last Major, an aggressive rifler in the ilk of Nikola "⁠NiKo⁠" Kovač. jL also shot to fame during the last Major cycle, proving his worth both in-game and out of the server. There was simply no Ukrainian talent as good as these two available to Natus Vincere.

Role-wise the new system also fits like a glove. Aleksib can continue as a supportive pack rifler, providing flashbangs and bait for the star riflers around him. iM slots into the pack as the star rifler alongside Biskela and superstar AWPer s1mple, with jL and b1t on extremity work.

jL is probably the more aggressive lurker of the two and was used to a lot of freedom in Damjan "⁠kyxsan⁠" Stoilkovski's Apeks, which he might not be afforded by Aleksib. But both he and b1t should be able to play at any tempo the Finnish leader would need from them. Both can fit into the individualistic high-responsibility style international teams rely on from their lurkers in 2023.

On the CT side iM should have priority to get the vast majority of his positions. Some of the conflicts will be helped by B1ad3's fairly recent decision to mould b1t into a pure anchor, the type of over-qualified CT role we see from Justin "⁠jks⁠" Savage, Robin "⁠ropz⁠" Kool, Sergey "⁠Ax1Le⁠" Rykhtorov, and Kaike "⁠KSCERATO⁠" Cerato, in which teams can prop up whole halves of the map with just one strong rifler.

Should he continue as that type of player, Aleksib and jL can shuffle the last few CT positions between them. The Finnish IGL has shown a preference for rotator positions — and there is certainly backing behind the idea that active rotator positions can enhance their calling — but he is unlikely to force a player as active as jL to be an anchor on all seven maps.

s1mple will be as free as ever, and will have the go-ahead to displace any player at any moment to ensure his rotate-heavy CT style is at its best.

Coming at the same problem from a more statistical viewpoint, Natus Vincere's new lineup's trading profile shows just how versatile these players can be. All four riflers are clustered around average in both trading and being traded, though this might change once they have defined roles in a new lineup together.

In terms of aggression, iM will be the sharpest point as the star opener (though rarely as the bomb-site entry). He should have the most freedom other than s1mple to take space on his own terms and at his own pace; he is not quite as aggressive as a Mareks "⁠YEKINDAR⁠" Gaļinskis or Robert "⁠Patsi⁠" Isyanov, but he is still a fairly new-school style of space taker.

Aleksib's opening attempts skew towards the T side, showing his ability to be a bomb-site entry and provide some bait for more individually skilled teammates. jL and b1t are about average on both sides of the map and it remains to be seen if either of them will truly become a passive lurker star to match the ropzs and Lotan "⁠Spinx⁠" Giladis of the world. s1mple should dominate the CT openers, but we have seen a more withdrawn role on T side than in years gone by from the game's greatest player as of late.

NAVI will hope that iM can be the second star they have lacked since electroNic took up the IGL mantle

That is the picture on paper: Good role fits and a solid amount of firepower provided iM and jL can continue on their trajectory in tier one. electroNic and Perfecto's departures will sting, but Natus Vincere had to look towards Europe once it was established that they were stepping down.

Other players were available, of course. Shahar "⁠flameZ⁠" Shushan, Mohammad "⁠BOROS⁠" Malhas, and Aleks "⁠Rainwaker⁠" Petrov have all found new homes this off-season. Kamil "⁠siuhy⁠" Szkaradek or a gamble on Lukas "⁠gla1ve⁠" Rossander were options in the IGL department. But Natus Vincere have built a roster that makes sense in the silliest of off-seasons; once they opted to switch to English-speaking, they could not hope for much better than these pieces of business.

The biggest question mark will be on Aleksib's system. His short stints at G2 and Ninjas in Pyjamas ended in his benching and without a trophy, albeit not without caveat. His supporters can point to a lack of firepower in Ninjas in Pyjamas and OG, and a lack of time or stylistic fit in G2, but it goes without saying that he is running out of excuses.

Still, the partnership between him and s1mple is a tantalizing one — and it feels impossible that he would have been signed had s1mple and B1ad3 not seen the potential of that very partnership.

The spotlight is on Aleksib to deliver on his tactical potential

If Aleksib and B1ad3 can marry the benefits of Natus Vincere's distinctive slow style, Aleksib's own Finnish tactical background, as well as the more individualistic European songbook iM and jL are used to, then Natus Vincere could once again challenge for the biggest trophies.

It will not be easy, and there is a feeling in the community that this should be Aleksib's last chance in a star-studded roster. That perception, fair or not, is a powerful one: It is time for the Finn to enact the potential he showed in ENCE, time for him to begin a stint of leadership without excuse or asterisk. He, and Natus Vincere, will hope Aleksib's fourth international team is the lucky one.

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