Stat Check: Astralis' controversial big-money bid to return to the top

Ahead of their home Major in Copenhagen, Astralis have broken the bank for a star-packed lineup capable of disrupting international hegemony.

Shortly after Astralis signed Nicolai "⁠device⁠" Reedtz, then-Sports Director Kasper Hvidt told his team that "Astralis is like a bear that has been sleeping all winter but is now waking up."

That was now a year ago, but the bear is finally showing signs of life. Four years since the organization won their fourth Major in Berlin, the signing of Martin "⁠stavn⁠" Lund and Jakob "⁠jabbi⁠" Nygaard show that Astralis are here to play once again.

The moves are, in many ways, off-brand. This is an organization that has previously done deals late, and as cheaply as possible.

When device was sold, he was replaced by youngster Philip "⁠Lucky⁠" Ewald. Benjamin "⁠blameF⁠" Bremer and Kristian "⁠k0nfig⁠" Wienecke were signed on Bosman transfers from Complexity. Lukas "⁠gla1ve⁠" Rossander and Andreas "⁠Xyp9x⁠" Højsleth hung on past their prime after signing bumper deals in 2021, and were only removed after Astralis missed the Paris Major.

This was not the transfer policy of an organization that was pursuing success at any cost. Comfortable as Denmark's premier esports brand, they had fallen far below their 2018-19 standards.

In 2023, the picture began to change. device was bought back from NIP for a significant fee. Victor "⁠Staehr⁠" Staehr, originally lined up to join at the end of his Sprout deal, came in six months early after Astralis finally moved on from Xyp9x and gla1ve.

Kasper Hvidt and Nicolai "⁠HUNDEN⁠" Petersen departed around the same time, and the organization poached highly-rated Sports Director Kasper Straube Hansen from HEROIC as they finally found a way to put their regional pull to use.

But it is their latest transfers, the blockbuster signings of stavn and jabbi in another raid on HEROIC, that truly prove their re-commitment to sporting success.

This spending, of course, does not guarantee success. There are clear questions to be answered after these moves, with a T-side role clash between star trade-fraggers stavn and blameF. jabbi and Staehr, too, face a transition as they move into more supportive roles after occupying star rotator positions last term.

The solution Astralis have chosen is to keep fairly strict roles, at least on paper. stavn, who had played the in-game leader roaming T-side roles in HEROIC, is now the primary aggressor in map control defaults ahead of blameF.

This moved the previous opener Staehr to the typical supportive roles of the half-lurker, the 'fourth man' in places like Boiler on Inferno or Connector on Overpass, who returns to the pack for bomb-site entry duties but rarely has the freedom to make aggressive lurks happen.

jabbi then replaced Christian "⁠Buzz⁠" Andersen as the squad's primary lurker. As he was in HEROIC, though, he has been more of an aggressor than typical star closers like Robin "⁠ropz⁠" Kool or David "⁠frozen⁠" Čerňanský, and has plenty of entry duties himself.

We can see this in the team's trade profile, which shows how often a player is traded or the one trading. jabbi is traded most, with a straight line going from himself to the more passive blameF via Staehr and stavn. This is, essentially, a line of hierarchy for who is prioritized in late-round scenarios.

Thus, though stavn is tasked with more aggression than he was in HEROIC — where he was more of the blameF figure in the top left —, he is still taking fights on his own terms and often has one of his lurkers entrying ahead of him.

On CT side, blameF has again kept all of his positions, meaning some more adaptation for the rest of the rifling quartet. stavn remains a rotating star, but has some new spots like Short on Mirage or Hut on Nuke, that could have affected him more than they have so far.

The big changes are for jabbi and Staehr, who are anchors on every single map. jabbi is returning to his Copenhagen Flames big site anchor roles, and has made a decent start with a 1.07 CT rating.

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Staehr's inclusion in this new lineup was a point of contention, precisely because of this role shift. He was used to star roles, signed to be the third star to blameF and device, and handed rotation positions to ensure a smooth transition. Nonetheless, he struggled in his first few months under the Astralis banner, rarely showing the consistency the team required.

When stavn and jabbi were rumored to be in talks, then, it seemed likely Astralis would have kept at least one specialist anchor to support the four top 20 players around them. Instead, Staehr has been tasked with upending his game completely.

The benefits of the gamble have been immediate. Staehr has remained at an even keel, but considering the role shift that 1.06 rating has gone from underwhelming to a huge asset. He will inherently not be as selfless as a player like Johannes "⁠b0RUP⁠" Borup, but Astralis have determined a need for greater fragging and Staehr is fulfilling that requirement.

He does not need to be a star player to succeed in his new role, but with Rasmus "⁠sjuush⁠" Beck as an option if the international HEROIC fails, the 19-year-old knows he has to maintain the level required for a team of such lofty ambitions.

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With stavn, jabbi, and Staehr all adapting well so far, the platform is there for Astralis to succeed. blameF will trundle on as the uber-consistent rifling manifestation of Counter-Strike marmite.

With device, one the most decorated players in history, as the star AWPer and fifth then, Astralis should be set. His poor level at BLAST Premier Spring Groups, his worst event since Spring Final in Washington last year, is of note, but a player of his stature rarely has slumps and bounces back quicker than most.

Part of the explanation for this is that, unlike many AWPers, device is persevering with the weapon in CS2. He still has a 39.1% AWP kill percentage on the new game, compared to 48.9% on GO since 2023 began.

It's a decent drop, but compared to the likes of Nico "⁠nicoodoz⁠" Tamjidi (21.8%), Aleksandr "⁠zorte⁠" Zagodyrenko (22.4%), and Denis "⁠deko⁠" Zhukov (22.1%), you can see that device has not abandoned the pursuit entirely; which is perhaps a surprise, since device used to be a rifler and, as late as 2018, rarely picked up the AWP on T sides of maps like Inferno.

This full send may hurt his rating early on, but could benefit him in the long term as the meta adjusts. Even including Spring Groups, device has a decent 1.14 rating for CS2 so far and you would be a fool to count him out.

Astralis, then, have something to build on. They are not going to be an uber-tactical team like the one that created their era. Hell, they don't even have a head coach until April, when Casper "⁠ruggah⁠" Due will join. Instead, in an era of international super-teams focused on firepower and individuality, they will be a national one.

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Except for Emil "⁠Magisk⁠" Reif or sjuush, and a more thorough-bred IGL like Marco "⁠Snappi⁠" Pfeiffer or Finn "⁠karrigan⁠" Andersen, Astralis have assembled the best Danish talent onto one lineup.

Role fits are not perfect, but firepower is just as important and, when you're fishing from a smaller pond than international projects, maybe more so. Staehr might not be a natural anchor but he still might already be the best one still playing in a full Danish roster.

jabbi, too, could have star roles on another team. Astralis, however, are building a project big enough that he is okay taking a back seat. It may cost him his top 20 seat to anchor and do this much bomb-site entry work, but, if his team can clinch the trophies HEROIC couldn't, it will all have been worth it.

In their short time together so far, Astralis are answering plenty of the questions thrown at them when they built this roster. But plenty are unanswered.

Can stavn and jabbi perform in big matches, where they so often struggled for HEROIC in 2023? Media commitments played a role in limiting their practice (and thus performance) at BetBoom Dacha, and more of the same will be thrown at what is an immensely marketable roster.

Even if the new duo can survive the pressure, will Staehr maintain his form in such difficult roles? Can blameF, without a coach until April, compete tactically with the likes of Dan "⁠apEX⁠" Madesclaire, karrigan, and Snappi? Will device, at 28 years old, be a top-five player forever?

IEM Katowice is the next stress test, an unforgiving one for many a promising superteam. Astralis tested Vitality and bested Falcons on full debut, but Spring Groups offer comforts the first super-elite event of 2024 will not.

It begins as any scriptwriter would have it: A bout against HEROIC, the organization jabbi and stavn parted with on such bad terms.

All rosters exist in a permanent state of needing more time and this one is no different, but excuses should be batted away with this much talent and after this extent of financial outlay.

The spectre of the March Major looms over Astralis, but Spodek towers. The best teams hit the ground running. Denmark's team must prove they can be one of them.

Date	Matches
IEM Katowice 2024 Play-in
31/01/2024	HEROIC 15:30 Astralis	Match