What has gone wrong for NAVI?

The best team of 2024 are struggling for results this year, but why?

Across 2024 Natus Vincere collected four trophies, one being the first Major of the year, and finished second three times. From June to October, the European combine went on a run during which they finished no worse than second in six back-to-back tournaments. After the exploits of the likes of Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev and Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov in 2021, it was the single most successful year in the organization's history.

As a result of their immense success, Natus Vincere cleaned up at the 2024 HLTV Awards. The team was named Team of the Year, Justinas "⁠jL⁠" Lekavicius was named Closer of the Year with Valeriy "⁠b1t⁠" Vakhovskiy taking second, b1t was named Anchor of the Year, Aleksi "⁠Aleksib⁠" Virolainen IGL of the Year, and Andrey "⁠B1ad3⁠" Gorodenskiy Coach of the Year.

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NAVI named Team of the Year

Fast forward to 2025, and the tides have turned on Natus Vincere. The same squad has managed to claim top four finishes at BLAST Bounty and IEM Katowice, but those are the best returns they have mustered in four tournaments. No trophies, no grand final appearances. Losses to Eternal Fire (now Aurora), Spirit and The MongolZ have left Natus Vincere short of the top teams, and as a result they have slid from the top spot to 5th in HLTV's rankings, and from 1st to 10th in the VRS.

So what made Natus Vincere so good last year, and what has changed in 2025?

PGL Major Copenhagen

First things first, we have to address Natus Vincere's run at PGL Major Copenhagen. The European combine went into the first CS2 Major as the sixth-best team in the world, and very few members of the community reckoned they had any chance to actually claim the Major title. Seeing as Natus Vincere did ultimately make a shock run to the trophy, we should address said run and what made it happen, even if at this time, Natus Vincere were a lesser form of the beast that would go on to put together their immensely successful run from June-October.

In short, there is one man who can take the bulk of the credit for Natus Vincere's unlikely Major triumph: jL. The 25-year-old rifler won the MVP award thanks to his incredible efforts across his team's campaign in Denmark, and frankly, he did it all. jL racked up the second-highest number of opening kills, the highest total kill number and eight clutches, being by far Natus Vincere's top performer and the main reason they bagged the organization's second Major trophy against the odds.

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jL claims PGL Major Copenhagen MVP award

Beyond jL, there wasn't a player wearing a Natus Vincere jersey who got close to the Lithuanians output and impact. Ihor "⁠w0nderful⁠" Zhdanov was solid and earned an EVP for his efforts, and b1t stepped up in the grand final, but Natus Vincere were pretty close to a one-man team when it came to significant impact and game-changing moments.

This was not the Natus Vincere that would go on to become the best team in the world later in the year. They were overly reliant on jL, sported a sub-50% round win rate across the Major, and benefitted massively from a kind draw that saw them avoid both Spirit and Vitality in the playoffs.

NAVI's golden run

Natus Vincere's incredible run from June-October was only possible because they had significantly evolved from the team that won the Major. There were several key ways in which Natus Vincere progressed to make their Team of the Year-worthy exploits possible.

First and foremost, they were no longer overly reliant on jL's impact. Sure, the Major MVP was still a key part of their winning formula, and he picked up another MVP award in their ESL Pro League Season 20 victory, but there was so much more to Natus Vincere.

Mihai "⁠iM⁠" Ivan had, finally, stepped up to justify his star rifle roles. Having spent much of his time in a Natus Vincere jersey underwhelming and seeming ripe for replacement, the Romanian came into his own from June onwards. From joining Natus Vincere to just prior to BLAST Spring Final 2024, iM was averaging a 1.03 rating, 1.09 impact rating, and 74.3 ADR. During Natus Vincere's golden run, these numbers shot up to a 1.15 rating, 1.18 impact, and 82.1 ADR. He was trading better, more successful in openers and entry work, and was putting up big numbers against the best teams, rather than being a passenger.

w0nderful had also become more consistent. His overall stats didn't rise significantly from his time since joining Natus Vincere, but the Ukrainian was less likely to disappear for long stretches of tournaments, like he had during the Major playoff run. In particular the young starlet picked up after the player break, posting only a single event below a 1.07 rating, compared to three below that rating prior to the break.

Beyond their individuals stepping up, Natus Vincere simply seemed more cohesive and effective as a unit. At BLAST Premier Spring Final, at the start of their golden run, B1ad3 said in an interview with HLTV that Natus Vincere "are a team that depends a lot on bootcamps," and that the squad work a lot of "teamwork, synergy, and cohesion." With a bootcamp under their belts prior to Spring Final, and another following the player break, Natus Vincere's renowned system-heavy approach had a chance to truly reach its pinnacle, and as a result, the team thrived.

What has gone wrong?

Right at the end of last year, Natus Vincere's form dropped off. They exited BLAST World Final in last place, and couldn't even reach the playoffs of Perfect World Shanghai Major, making for a disappointing title defense. Whilst those stumbles could be explained away as a team reaching the end of their tether after a long year, they have also begun 2025 in disappointing form, suggesting there are deeper issues at play within Natus Vincere.

There are four major aspects that are apparent when looking at Natus Vincere's struggles to recapture their world-beating form of 2024. Their individuals have seen their form wane, their map pool has collapsed, the T sides are problematic in key matches, and there is an air of tension about the team, at least when viewed from the outside.

From four stars to one

Across 2025 overall, only two players are producing star-level numbers consistently: iM on CT side, and b1t on T side. In their series losses that resulted in eliminations from tournaments, against Spirit, The MongolZ, and Eternal Fire, b1t is the only player who has posted above a 1.00 rating more than once. Individuals not stepping up is something Aleksib has highlighted as a problem this year during a broadcast interview in the group stage of BLAST Open Lisbon.

iM and w0nderful have suffered significantly. On the T side in particular, their offensive ratings went from 1.10 and 1.11 during the golden run to 1.00 and 1.01 in 2025. In the aforementioned losses to top teams, they are each regularly struggling to post 15 T-side frags across two maps. jL's form has dipped too, particularly in success in opening kills on the T side, and he is not producing the high-impact moments that would regularly carry Natus Vincere to victory hot streak in 2024.

From four good maps to one

Natus Vincere's map pool has collapsed upon itself across the course of 2025. Throughout their golden run they sported a six map pool, being perma-banners of Vertigo, and it truly was a six map pool. On Mirage, Dust2, Anubis, and Ancient, Natus Vincere sported a 75% winrate or better, and on Nuke and Inferno they had around a 50% winrate. There wasn't anywhere obvious you could go in the pool to punish them, and their worst map, Inferno, was one of the least popular in the pool.

In 2025, Natus Vincere's only truly reliable map overall is Mirage (83.3% WR). Beyond that, they have a middling record on Ancient and Anubis, and are struggling on Inferno, Nuke and Dust2. The problem is, against the best teams, even their Mirage hasn't been reliable. They were handily beaten on it by Spirit at IEM Katowice, largely because of a poor T side, and The MongolZ spanked them on it at ESL Pro League Season 21.

In a recent interview with HLTV in Lisbon, B1ad3 said that his team were "working a lot on a seven-map pool," and it's hard to come to any other conclusion than that this effort is hurting the team, at least in the short term.

Offensive halves that go limp in key moments

Natus Vincere could often rely on their offensive halves to pull themselves through key moments during their golden run. Their T sides were the beating heart of their run to second at BLAST Spring Final, powerful offensive halves on Nuke and Inferno won the title over G2 at Esports World Cup, and similarly potent attacks put them two maps to the good in the final of IEM Rio against MOUZ. The opposite is occurring this year, their offense locks up in key moments to scupper their chances.

In their loss to Spirit at IEM Katowice, Natus Vincere only managed four T rounds on their own Mirage pick. Against The MongolZ at EPL 21, Natus Vincere won the first four rounds of their Mirage T half off the back of a pistol win, then collapsed to lose the half 5-7. Against Eternal Fire at BLAST Open Lisbon, they managed a measly three offensive rounds on Dust2. In each instance Natus Vincere couldn't find a winning formula on the offensive halves of their own map pick, which will result in defeat almost every time against the best teams in the world.

As mentioned previously, individually players are not producing numbers on the T side. B1ad3 mentioned in an interview with HLTV during BLAST Lisbon that his team can hesitate at times, something they themselves refer to as "becoming shackled," and it's hurting Natus Vincere's offense. It's difficult to say whether underlying issues with the T side are leading to poor player performances, or poor player performances are the issue on T side, but either way, it has become a clear problem in key moments for Natus Vincere.

Tension simmering to the surface

B1ad3 recently dismissed the idea that there is any particular tension in the Natus Vincere camp, calling the idea "a made-up story," but it is difficult to swallow B1ad3's response entirely considering the number of different times apparent issues have cropped up. In isolation, each could be easily explained away, but in totality, a picture of a frustrated team emerges.

First, a moment emerged during a timeout that was broadcast at IEM Katowice that featured B1ad3 quite literally begging Aleksib to "step up" and "focus" on things that the tenured coach had mentioned before the game. Next, came a moment of tension between iM and b1t after a winning effort on Dust2 against The MongolZ. Finally, and most notably, came the infamous clip of Aleksib displaying obvious frustration with iM during a bout with TYLOO at ESL Pro League.

AleksiB: "Can we fucking play one round without saying something after?"

It is tough to believe there isn't a higher level of stress, and therefore tension, present than Natus Vincere have previously experienced with their current iteration. Expectations are high considering their performances in 2024, and they are short on results thus far this year. The pressure is higher than it was when Natus Vincere first put together their international roster and were slow to achieve results, and it is surely inevitable that this pressure will result in increased tensions among the team.

Considering Natus Vincere's status as a system-based team that relies heavily on teamwork and synergy rather than individuals solo-carrying games, this tension may perhaps hurt Natus Vincere more than it would another team. Vitality could feasibly win through sheer firepower in any scenario, and Danil "⁠donk⁠" Kryshkovets could potentially put Spirit on his back in any game, no matter the tension. That is not the case for Natus Vincere, something B1ad3 himself has admitted in a recent interview with HLTV.

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B1ad3: "I think for us it is crucial to become more humble"

Is it really that bad?

Whilst Natus Vincere are certainly a step behind in the hunt for trophies, is it fair to be pressing the panic button just yet?

Natus Vincere's only truly concerning loss in 2025 was to SAW early on in ESL Pro League, but they recovered after that to make the playoffs. Beyond that, there are three teams that have defeated them: Spirit thrice, Eternal Fire, and The MongolZ.

At the time of each defeat to Spirit, the Russian squad were the top-ranked team in the world and are a matchup that has always been a problem for Natus Vincere, even during 2024. Eternal Fire and The MongolZ were fifth and sixth respectively, and teams on the rise, highly touted for their potential to breakout and secure a trophy in the near future.

On the flip side, the nature of the losses to The MongolZ and Eternal Fire were particularly concerning. Natus Vincere were blown out 0-2 on both occasions, mustering six rounds or less on three of the four maps. They were simply outclassed on an individual level, and the lack of firepower compared to their opponents was evident.

There is also the simple fact that The MongolZ and Eternal Fire, whilst certainly good teams, are not ready to challenge for trophies just yet. Neither team has even managed to claim titles at events like PGL Bucharest and Cluj-Napoca, where they were among the favorites due to the weaker fields at these tournaments. If Natus Vincere's goal is to be challenging for the biggest trophies, alarm bells should be ringing.

Looking forward

B1ad3 told HLTV at BLAST Lisbon that changes would be on the cards for Natus Vincere come the Major, if they performed poorly and missed out on the playoffs. Looking at their level thus far this year, that is a real possibility. On current form, they would be unlikely to beat MOUZ, Spirit or Vitality, and teams like The MongolZ, Aurora and a revitalized Falcons would surely give them trouble too.

Heading into their next two events, IEM Melbourne and PGL Astana, Natus Vincere have to start showing some better performances against the better teams. Playoff runs and wins against teams in the lower end of the pack are not good enough. Natus Vincere need to get some matchups against the top five or six sides in the world and win them, or at the very least show they have the ability to win them.

With an all-important Major coming up, confidence in their individual level and belief in their system are two things Natus Vincere desperately need to build, and quickly. Otherwise, a playoff run in Austin is an outside possibility rather than a sure thing, and changes will loom in the player break.