Strike #1: Liquid's Cluj mistake

Liquid's hazardous decision to skip PGL Cluj-Napoca comes under fire in a new column delving into the trials and tribulations of the new Counter-Strike circuit's realities.

Valve's new rules have only just come into effect in the past few weeks, but it is already becoming clear that teams are adapting to the new reality of a much busier circuit than we've had in past years.

While BLAST Bounty and IEM Katowice attracted all the top teams, invites for the next two tier-one events showcase that prioritization will become the norm.

FaZe were the most notable omission on the ESL Pro League team list, which is a curious case in itself given the team's prior allegiance to ESL as a former partner, but the much bigger and more intriguing example of the new circuit is PGL Cluj-Napoca.

Half of the top 10 teams according to Valve's Regional Standings (VRS) as of January 6, the deciding date, chose to skip the Romanian event: Spirit, G2, Natus Vincere, Vitality and Liquid.

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You can see where the first four teams are coming from. Given their stature as one of the "big six" from the previous year and their current standing in the VRS, they can safely assume they'll be in no real danger of dropping off too much in the ranking for it to matter.

So, in a circuit that would see them go from Copenhagen to Katowice to Cluj to Stockholm to Copenhagen to Lisbon in just two and a half months — and likely go far each time —, it's hard to criticize these four teams' decision to give themselves some time off. At least unless you are Romanian.

But Liquid is where I'm left scratching my head for explanations.

Given the lack of top team attendance and very high value in the eyes of the VRS' formula, a whopping $1.25 million in prizemoney, Cluj-Napoca is the perfect ground for any team not already at the top to get a leg up in the ranking. And no one would have likely benefitted more than Liquid, who had been effective playing against the teams below the top five in the previous season, only struggling when playing up against the elite.

A deep run would have likely given them some much-needed confidence, too, after they failed to make it past quarter-finals all season long in the second half of 2024 and have now gotten off to a slow start to 2025 with Guy "⁠NertZ⁠" Iluz at BLAST Bounty.

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Instead, Liquid have said no to that opportunity at a time when they hardly have the luxuries of the elite teams, currently being ranked 10th in the Global VRS.

This puts pressure on them to perform at the next two events they have qualified for and said yes to, IEM Katowice and ESL Pro League, because otherwise things could get very awkward, very quickly.

If they also bomb out of Katowice, there's a non-zero chance Russel "⁠Twistzz⁠" Van Dulken and company will drop below the 12th spot by the first VRS update of February and miss out on an invite for BLAST Open Lisbon. With that stop being the last event to count towards the VRS before invites to the Austin Major go out, that could have serious further implications.

Under the new Major invite system, only the #1 Americas team gets to go straight to Stage 3, another four guarantee an invite to Stage 2, while everyone else will have to play in the high-pressure equivalent to RMRs of Majors past, the Major Regional Qualifiers.

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Right now Liquid are the #1 Americas team, but they have three regional rivals breathing down their necks in FURIA, paiN and MIBR, and two more not too far behind in Wildcard and Complexity. All five are in attendance in Katowice, some of them in EPL, but they all made one crucial decision opposite to Liquid: They all said yes to Cluj-Napoca.

It's not difficult to imagine that doomsday scenario coming true. Twistzz's team already lost to HEROIC once this year, and the same opponent awaits them in the opening round of the IEM Katowice Play-in. After that, they will either face one of the teams vying for those Americas spots at the Major, Complexity, or a red-hot Eternal Fire.

The question is, then, who made that decision and why?

For that we'll have to wait for a clear answer. However, smart money is on the organization. That's where the power to decide where a team goes generally lies, especially in the top orgs. Moreover, players are heavily incentivized to attend PGL events, where the entire reward is in prizemoney, of which players typically get a much larger cut than club rewards and revenue share.