The final days of the race to StarLadder Budapest Major as they happened

Here are the key takeaways from the concluded first stage:

• G2's shaky 3-2 run may have cost them a Stage 3 invite

• B8's earning of 47 points is enough to give them a solid cushion despite 2-3 exit

• Gentle Mates' 3-1 run and 55 points place them at the cut-off point with 9INE, fnatic, SAW just below having Fragadelphia still to play

• HEROIC are out of the running after bombing out 1-3

• 3DMAX and Astralis protected their Major Stage 2 invites after advancing

The ESN Fall Showdown has just concluded with The Huns' victory over Chinggis Warriors in the grand final likely condemning the latter team, who now sit in seventh place of the Asia VRS, just below the Major cut-off.

Rare Atom in sixth place are currently taking part in XSE Pro League Shanghai, and effectively just need not to lose their next two games to underdogs to keep their spot.

Gentle Mates got the most out of their last-minute invitation for ESL Pro League S22 Stage 1 by traversing the Swiss system with a 3-1 record.

That means they are currently projected to finish in the Major invite range, but they could get overtaken by other teams. The Spanish squad won't play any more games that will impact the ranking before Major invites go out, while some of their competitors will attend Fragadelphia Blocktober.

Another team to no longer have a chance to make the Budapest Major is BetBoom, as the Russian squad lost their CCT EU S7 semi-final match against CYBERSHOKE.

The loss dropped them five places in the VRS, and with no other matches scheduled until the invite cut-off, Kirill "⁠Boombl4⁠" Mikhailov and company are out of chances.

CCT Season 3 Europe Series 7Best of 3

BetBoom

Matchpage

0

2

1st October 2025

CYBERSHOKE

16

Train

19

11

Mirage

13

BetBoom	K - D	Swing	ADR	KAST	Rating3.0
Kirill 'Magnojez' RodnovMagnojez	45 - 41	+2.83%	90.5	64.4%	1.19
Kirill 'Boombl4' MikhailovBoombl4	30 - 40	+0.12%	64.6	69.5%	0.93
Artem 'ArtFr0st' KharitonovArtFr0st	37 - 38	-1.53%	61.9	66.1%	0.89
Pavel 'S1ren' OgloblinS1ren	34 - 38	-1.62%	56.1	71.2%	0.87
Daniil 'd1Ledez' Kustovd1Ledez	34 - 45	-1.25%	61.6	62.7%	0.87

CYBERSHOKE	K - D	Swing	ADR	KAST	Rating3.0
Denis 'notineki' Kalachevnotineki	48 - 33	+1.29%	76.8	78.0%	1.19
David 'bl1x1' Stepanyantsbl1x1	41 - 41	+1.34%	80.6	76.3%	1.16
Ilya 'FenomeN' KolodkoFenomeN	48 - 31	+0.30%	78.9	76.3%	1.14
Daniil 'alpha' Deminalpha	29 - 35	+0.62%	60.6	69.5%	0.96
Aleksandr 'glowiing' Matsievichglowiing	35 - 41	-2.30%	72.5	69.5%	0.89

HEROIC's loss against Astralis has consigned them to a Major-less end to the season. A 1-3 record at EPL means that they failed to acquire enough points to stay in the game, and Linus "⁠LNZ⁠" Holtäng's troops won't play any more games before the invite cutoff.

ESL Pro League Season 22 Stage 1Best of 3

Astralis

Matchpage

2

1

1st October 2025

HEROIC

13

Mirage

10

4

Inferno

13

13

Nuke

2

Astralis	K - D	Swing	ADR	KAST	Rating3.0
Victor 'Staehr' StaehrStaehr	48 - 39	+6.19%	97.1	74.5%	1.51
Emil 'Magisk' ReifMagisk	41 - 35	+0.30%	72.3	67.3%	1.11
Nicolai 'device' Reedtzdevice	44 - 35	+0.65%	80.0	70.9%	1.09
Jakob 'jabbi' Nygaardjabbi	35 - 36	-1.16%	66.9	61.8%	0.94
Rasmus 'HooXi' NielsenHooXi	28 - 41	-3.11%	66.3	72.7%	0.81

HEROIC	K - D	Swing	ADR	KAST	Rating3.0
Alimzhan 'Alkaren' BitimbaiAlkaren	47 - 37	+2.03%	85.1	72.7%	1.30
Linus 'nilo' Bergmannilo	42 - 40	-3.23%	65.2	76.4%	0.99
Simon 'yxngstxr' Boijeyxngstxr	35 - 36	+0.49%	65.4	61.8%	0.99
Yasin 'xfl0ud' Koçxfl0ud	33 - 40	-0.89%	71.7	67.3%	0.95
Linus 'LNZ' HoltängLNZ	29 - 43	-1.28%	74.2	65.5%	0.88

MIBR has tightened the race for a Stage 2 spot, trailing Legacy by just 33 points, while ODDIK and Sharks enter the invite range in lieu of SkinRave and Wildcard after their points boost from FERJEE Rush.

The race is getting hot ahead of the October 6 cut-off, with Americas Circuit X and Fragadelphia Blocktober set to take place on October 2-5.

After missing out on a big injection of points in their match against 3DMAX, HEROIC are now on the verge of elimination in their last chance to make their case for a spot at the StarLadder Major Budapest.

They are already in trouble, but a loss to Astralis tomorrow would spell their inevitable doom.

Nick "⁠nitr0⁠" Cannella and company still have quite the cushion, but their last-place exit at ESL Pro League has caused them to drop several spots in the prediction:

After the latest results at EPL S22 Stage 1, B8 move well within the Major invite cut-off after their win against G2 as per our predicted list.

G2, meanwhile, drop further away from a Stage 3 spot and now need to make up 24 points on Aurora to avoid beginning their campaign in Stage 2.

Gentle Mates have also suffered a costly loss to Inner Circle, which means they lost 21 points and consequently drop outside of the predicted Major invite list.

Date	Matches
ESL Pro League Season 22 Stage 1
30/09/2025	Inner Circle Finished 2:1 Gentle Mates	Match
30/09/2025	G2 Finished 1:2 B8	Match

Gentle Mates have earned a jump to 22nd in the VRS Global Standings to currently become eligible for a Budapest Major invite with a victory against G2. With a chance to make Stage 2 against Inner Circle tomorrow, the Spanish squad looks to be making the most out of their last-minute invite.

Conversely, G2's loss drops them three places in the VRS — putting them on the brink of a Stage 3 Major invite as per our predicted list.

ESL Pro League Season 22 Stage 1Best of 3

G2

Matchpage

1

2

29th September 2025

Gentle Mates

13

Inferno

2

11

Mirage

13

7

Ancient

13

The man with the special spreadsheets has spoken, and PARIVISION seem to have their spot in Budapest all but booked after their LanDaLan success.

Obviously as PARIVISION have nothing left to play, they are somewhat dependant on other results, but Mischief's prediction has them favoured to make the Major. For what it's worth, HLTV's projection also has PARIVISION making it.

Elsewhere HEROIC have seen their chances slip dangerously, with OG and SAW in contention for that final spot (according to predictions, take everything with a pinch of salt).

9z have seen their chances of qualifying for StarLadder Major Budapest take a significant hit due to their group stage exit at FERJEE Rush. The South American side were bested by Sharks and Gaimin Gladiators to be sent crashing out of the event.

Currently projected to miss out on a Stage 1 Major berth by 40 or so points, 9z still have a chance to turn their fortunes around as they compete at Fragadelphia Blocktober in a few days time.

As for FERJEE Rush, there are still a host of teams in the running who are chasing Major spots, including the likes of ODDIK, RED Canids, BESTIA and Sharks.

The playoffs will potentially have some bearing on Major qualification, and the matchups are as follows:

Date	Matches
FERJEE Rush 2025
29/09/2025	RED Canids 20:00 ODDIK	Match
29/09/2025	BESTIA 20:00 MIBR	Match
30/09/2025	Sharks 00:30 Imperial	Match
30/09/2025	Keyd Stars 01:15 Gaimin Gladiators	Match

Gentle Mates have made good on their last-minute invite to ESL Pro League Season 22 by defeating HEROIC in their Stage 1 opener, a matchup that has significant ramifications for HEROIC's Major hopes and provides a boon to the Spaniards' own quest.

HEROIC could have earned a jump to 19th in the VRS Global Standings and become eligible for an invite with a victory, but have instead cascaded down the order to 22nd in Europe in our predicted list.

Gentle Mates, conversely, now sit at 1395 points, just 15 shy of overtaking Virtus.pro for the 16th and final spot.

PARIVISION are projected to receive an invite to Stage 1 of the Major after winning Majestic LanDaLan 3, jumping above Virtus.pro on our predicted list.

Dzhami "⁠Jame⁠" Ali's side gained four ranking spots during the tournament and has pipped runners-up BetBoom and previously-qualified fnatic for a Major spot.

Virtus.pro are now in real danger with 1413 points, no points left to gain, and several teams below them, including fnatic, SAW, Gentle Mates, and 9INE, playing in events before the cut-off.

With their qualification for the semi-finals at Birch Cup, Liquid are now guaranteed to get the five ranked matches needed to have Jonathan "⁠EliGE⁠" Jablonowski count as part of their lineup ahead of the Major invite cutoff.

Date	Matches
Birch Cup 2025
28/09/2025	Liquid 13:30 9INE	Match
27/09/2025	Liquid Finished 13:9 500	Match
27/09/2025	9INE Finished 13:7 Liquid	Match
28/09/2025	Liquid Finished 2:0 500	Match

The team have played three, have the semi-final coming up, and will then either play the third-place decider or final.

Finn "Mischief" Farrer's latest projections show that Virtus.pro have only a 24.5% chance of qualifying for the Major after being forced to withdraw from ESL Pro League 22.

Read more

Virtus.pro replaced by ENCE at EPL after being turned away at border

The Russian team has nothing left to play for before the October 6 Major invite cutoff.

Finn "Mischief" Farrer's model shows that only two Major spots are realistically still up for the taking for Americas teams.

FERJEE Rush, which kicks off today, will be the first of three LAN events taking place in the region ahead of the October 6 Major invite cutoff. The other two will take place only next weekend (Fragadelphia Blocktober and Circuit X).

After being forced to withdraw from ESL Pro League, Virtus.pro have nothing left to do but pray teams below them such as fnatic, SAW, BetBoom, PARIVISION and HEROIC don't make up enough ground to overtake them on the VRS.

VP is currently projected to finish 15th out of the 16 qualifying spots, with the aforementioned quintet breathing down their necks within 50 points of them.

Read more

Virtus.pro replaced by ENCE at EPL after being turned away at border

The Danish side finished 5th-6th at the tournament in Romania following the loss to Zero Tenacity and are currently projected to finish 22nd in Europe by October 6.

They were one of several teams a low chance of qualifying and now have an extra difficult job to do in their final appearance before the cut-off at Fragadelphia Blocktober.

This is how the Major invites would look if nothing else happened with all the relevant decay taken into account, as per HLTV's forecast of the invites set to go out on October 6:

Stage 3

Vitality (EU)
Spirit (EU)
G2 (EU)
Falcons (EU)

MOUZ (EU)
FURIA (AM)
paiN (AM)
The MongolZ (AS)

Stage 2

Aurora (EU)
Natus Vincere (EU)
Astralis (EU)
3DMAX (EU)

FaZe (EU)
NRG (AM)
Legacy (AM)
TYLOO (AS)

Stage 1

Liquid (EU)
GamerLegion (EU)
Ninjas in Pyjamas (EU)
Virtus.pro (EU)
B8 (EU)
fnatic (EU)
M80 (AM)
Passion UA (AM)

Imperial (AM)
MIBR (AM)
Wildcard (AM)
SkinRave (AM)
Lynn Vision (AS)
FlyQuest (AS)
The Huns (AS)
Rare Atom (AS)

The Spanish side has just suffered a tough opening loss to ex-Inner Circle at Birch Cup and lost 30 points on the ranking, resulting in them falling out of the top 16 teams forecasted to make the StarLadder Major from Europe.

What's more, if Gentle Mates recover and make it to the playoffs, they will later have to accept a forfeit loss so that they can make it to ESL Pro League Stage 1 in time. That decision may not have impacted them much in the end, a VRS expert says, but that's only if they find success in Sweden.

A huge blow for a team that was already on the edge.

Date	Matches
Birch Cup 2025
27/09/2025	Gentle Mates 14:30 Venom	Match
27/09/2025	Gentle Mates Finished 8:13 ex-Inner Circle	Match

Welcome.

The race to the StarLadder Budapest Major invites has reached its final week or so and we have several regional, local and global LANs taking place before the invites go out on October 6.

DraculaN Season 2
Birch Cup 2025
Majestic LanDaLan 3
FERJEE Rush 2025
Urban Riga Open S1
ESL Pro League S22 Stage 1
Circuit X S1
Fragadelphia Blocktober

Most of Europe's 16 invites and Americas' 10 invites are more or less locked in by now, but several are still largely undecided and come down to results from the aforementioned tournaments.

In this post, we'll update you as the race unfolds whenever we see and impact on a team's chances to qualify.

You can also check out the forecast yourself to see what the invites would look like right now here.